2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[CookieDamage]

What were the polls like in Spring of 2009?

EDIT: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

By May, Dems had a lead, but it was only about 5 points and well under 50. From Spring 2009 to e-day 2010, Dems had struggled to get past 41-42 points, while the GOP gradually polled better and closer to 50. They broke away in the summer of 2010 and never were bested by the Dems.

The good thing about this poll is that Dems are at 50 and there's a ten point gap. Bad thing is that this is just one poll, it's well over a year before the general, and other gcb polls have shown a tighter margin similar to 2010.

[CookieDamage]

The closer to 50 Dems remain the better chances they have. Regardless of an individual poll's reliability, a number of polls showing Dems in the 48-50 range is good news, and it'll be even better the closer we get to Nov 2022.

However, it really isn't crucial until Summer of 22. By then, polls will be important, Biden approval will be important, the state of the economy (unemp., jobs numbers, etc) will be important. If Biden has an approval like Trump's (~40-42%), 2022 will be a bad year, only tempered perhaps by a good economy. However, the economy in 2018 was good and the GOP was still swept out of the house. Conversely, Obama's approval in the summer of 2010 wasn't atrocious, but the economy wasn't decent and the Tea Party backlash was heavy.

If Biden remains above water and the economy is doing well, Dems have a very good chance of maintaining the House and Senate. Although, the spread and normalization of QAnon and other conspiracies among the GOP voter base can be extremely problematic.

[CookieDamage]

Rs can't even win a plurality in an internal. Although Dems being at 42 isn't good.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

You're actually hilariously unbearable

[CookieDamage]

I mean, D+1-R+3 is all within the MoE, so given the coverage, I don't see current movement from R+1 in July to R+3 now as that damaging. Certainly not something that can't be clawed back from when we're currently in one of the worst news cycles of Biden's presidency.

In June things were looking very good for Biden on most fronts, so the fact that it was only D+1 at that point tells you something.

https://twitter.com/brentbuc/status/1432382904894697472

A 17K survey sample? Absolute garbage.

Please. His Twitter bio says "Christ follower". All you need to know.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/Donald_McEachin/status/1468726400781799428

Ok wig

[CookieDamage]

It's going to be a competitive midterm, probably the first competitive midterm since 1998.