Kaplan Strategies: Trump up In the swing states

[kwabbit]

538 added these.... oh

2022 all over again lol

It’s a wack poll but they are rated ok by 538. Where do you draw the line to exclude? The Pennsylvania and Arizona polls aren’t that extreme, but the WI and MI polls are. Do you only let in some, even though they’ve been conducted with the same methodology? It’s a new regime at 538 and Morris has a different approach than Nate Silver and he still includes them. A good polling average will discount outliers anyway.

[kwabbit]

Oh well. We really are going to put Trump back into office. I guess this country deserves whatever happens next.

Mate this is a major outlier lol

Can you change the title of the thread? The brandonposting should be for the replies not the topic itself.

[kwabbit]

Oh well. We really are going to put Trump back into office. I guess this country deserves whatever happens next.

Mate this is a major outlier lol

Can you change the title of the thread? The brandonposting should be for the replies not the topic itself.

This better?

Yes that is better lol. I just don’t think polling thread titles should be editorialized, no matter how questionable the result.

[kwabbit]

538 added these.... oh

2022 all over again lol

It’s a wack poll but they are rated ok by 538. Where do you draw the line to exclude? The Pennsylvania and Arizona polls aren’t that extreme, but the WI and MI polls are. Do you only let in some, even though they’ve been conducted with the same methodology? It’s a new regime at 538 and Morris has a different approach than Nate Silver and he still includes them. A good polling average will discount outliers anyway.

I would think so, but the polling average seems really sensitive; Wisconsin shifted nearly 1.5% just based on this one poll. An outlier shouldn't shift the average that much if it's counting for outliers.

EDIT: also the Kristi Noem and abortion results are just... whack lmao

Across all states, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem consistently emerges as a formidable presidential running mate. This point is especially true in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, where Noem’s net favorability of +16 (45/29) indicates significant approval and awareness of the work she has done in South Dakota. Further showing Noem’s potential positive impact to a presidential ticket, Noem was the only potential VP candidate who garnered a positive favorability rating in all four states polled - Arizona (+8), Michigan (+12), Pennsylvania (+13), and Wisconsin (+16).

Kristi Noem with a nearly 50% favorability in Wisconsin... so true!

I think they should probably start marking all polls done by partisan affiliated outlets as internals, regardless of if they are sponsored. That would have solved a lot of the issue in 2022 with coefficient, insider advantage, trafalgar. Kaplan seems to be a GOP pollster so if you subtract 5 from Trumps margin and put them in the average things still get shifted just not to an unreasonable degree.