Mississippi whites who vote Democratic (user search)
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  Mississippi whites who vote Democratic (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mississippi whites who vote Democratic  (Read 6589 times)
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« on: July 28, 2018, 10:37:31 AM »

Educational attainment for rural MS whites shouldn't be any worse than for rural Whites in AL/GA.  The fact that the uber-White Mississippi counties stick out on that map compared to AL/GA has something to do with whatever racial turnout dynamics you're using.

^^^ And FWIW, Mississippi whites in 2012 statewide in my calcs were one shade lighter/less Democratic than AL whites (another big topic I've covered in the past is how the AL exit polls in 2008 had to be wrong by a considerable sum, underestimating white D support): 16% versus 11%. That's enough to essentially explain the difference in shading between MS & AL rural counties in 2012, and when comparing to GA, again, I believe that GA having more/smaller counties and more small cities as a result produces a slightly (~5%) more Democratic rural landscape than in MS.

I know MS looks weird on the map, but to me, it makes sense. There are other places where the map abruptly cuts (between GA/NC, for example, which is definitely accurate; along the 35th parallel in general across the eastern US, etc) but are nevertheless not the result of flawed modeling.



I was wrong about the rural educational levels, though - at least when basing it off of jimrtex's UCC delineations and the data from 2015. I might argue that there is some skewing here (again, because it uses county-level data and Mississippi's counties are geographically larger/a much greater % of the population in MS falls into the "rural" category), but alas:

Code:
AREA	POP		COLLEGE	%
GA-Rural 2669107 548545 20.6%
GA-Urban 7530893 3011255 40.0%
GA-State 10.200 m 3559800 34.9%

MS-Rural 1835885 442656 24.1%
MS-Urban 1148115 401816 35.0%
MS-State 2.984m 844472 28.3%

Probably caused by greater Athens being urban while Lafayette and Oktibehha are rural
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2018, 04:57:35 PM »

Are rural areas in the south losing blacks or whites faster?  I've seen some evidence that blacks are abandoning the rural areas faster than whites.
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