There Is No 'Blue Wall'

[Torie]

Not that this rendition of the mathematically obvious by Nate Silver, who's rather demonized around here anyway, will slow down the endless chatter about the topic by the usual suspects, but whatever.

[Torie]

I think it just splendid that everyone here understands it is about  95% all about the popular vote, and nothing else, and this parsing of swing states is just a waste of time, particularly at this point in the election cycle. And sure one can speculate about the popular vote, but given Hillary's potential problems, and given that we don't know who the Pub nominee will be, and that it is really up in the air in fact, and that we don't know how the Pub contenders will do under the klieg lights under pressure in prime time, and given that we don't know what the economy will be like, or what the Middle East will look like, and whether or not there have been more terrorist attacks, and how the Iran thing will play out, isn't that just about as silly an exercise?

Thank so much. Cheers.

PS: Oh yes, Lief, Silver did blame the polls for the UK debacle (interestingly, the Labour internal polls were much closer to the mark, with them down about 4%, and they were deeply worried about the election, and what the SNP was doing to them, so Milibrand was trotted out  to traduce the SNP, and announce that there were absolutely no marriage plans in the far horizon with them at all, but it was too little too late), but also blamed himself, for not having a higher error factor, to wit his confidence level about the potential of a majority government was much lower than it should have been. And that is about as relevant to this discussion as who Bushie is going to vote for for POTUS in 2016.

[Torie]

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention how Nate is plagiarizing himself from 4 years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's always 50-50!

What do you think the odds are dear?

[Torie]

What do you think the odds are dear?

I think 99% Clinton, 1% GOP is fair at the moment, sweetheart.

Thanks honey buns. I will write that down. I assume that there is no money out there for me on this one from you is there, with those odds? Yes, I thought not.

Btw, I quite enjoy your posts, and some of them make a heck of a lot of sense. It's just well, your confidence level, and confidence in your crystal ball, and the immutability of voting habits, kind of gives me vertigo. Speaking of persons of color in the context of immutability, to get off this damn white thing ad nauseum for just a moment, did you happen to notice what happened to the Asian vote in 2014?