jmfcst final predictions...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

[LATE EDIT]  shifted races, plus the numbers now add to 100%

This is how I see the current odds in the Senate.  I'll make my prediction later tonight.

R+2 (NJ+, MD+)                                             0.1% chance
R+1 (PA-, NJ+ MD+)                                       0.3%
R+0 (PA-, OH-,NJ+, MD+)                                 1%
R-1(PA-, OH-, MD+)                                        10%
R-2(PA-,OH-)                                                  15%
R-3(PA-,OH-,RI-)                                             25%
R-4(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-)                                   20%
R-5(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-)                           14%
R-6(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-)                    11%
R-7(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-)              3%
R-8(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-,AZ-)     0.6%


GOP odds:
PA  50:1
OH 40:1
NJ  35:1
MD 5:2
RI 10:9
MT 1:1
MO 9:10
VA 5:6
TN  1:15
AZ  1:20

[Gustaf]

I don't get your percentages, they add up to more than 100%. How is that possible?

[Alcon]

I don't get your percentages, they add up to more than 100%. How is that possible?

These are chances of each event happening.

[elcorazon]

they should still add up to 100% (or less) given that no 2 of them can occur at the same time.  You need to work on your math.  Pretty optimistic in Montana, too. Surprised you have more confidence there than Missouri.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

they should still add up to 100% (or less) given that no 2 of them can occur at the same time.  You need to work on your math.  Pretty optimistic in Montana, too. Surprised you have more confidence there than Missouri.

I live on the Gulf Coast...I am used to strike probabilities that add up to way over 100%

[Conan]

This is how I see the current odds in the Senate.  I'll make my prediction later tonight.

R+2 (NJ+, MD+)                                             0.1% chance
R+1 (PA-, NJ+ MD+)                                       0.5%
R+0 (PA-, OH-,NJ+, MD+)                               1%
R-1(PA-, OH-, MD+)                                        10%
R-2(PA-,OH-)                                                  30%
R-3(PA-,OH-,RI-)                                            45%
R-4(PA-, OH-, RI-, VA-)                                   40%
R-5(PA-, OH-, RI-, VA-, MO-)                           30%
R-6(PA-, OH-, RI-, VA-, MO-, MT-)                   20%
R-7(PA-, OH-, RI-, VA-, MO-, MT-, TN-)              1%
R-8(PA-, OH-, RI-, VA-, MO-, MT-, TN-,AZ-)     0.5%


GOP odds:
PA  40:1
NJ  35:1
OH 20:1
MD 6:1
RI 2:1
VA 49:51
MO 4:5
MT 2:3
TN  1:15
AZ  1:20

The chance of losing PA, RI, and OH is 100%.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The chance of losing PA, RI, and OH is 100%.

I don't know how you could say that about RI...unless you think Zogby (Chafee -14%) knows more than Gallop (Chafee -3%) or Mason-Dixon (Chafee +1).

Zogby has never recovered from 9/11.  He has been a total joke ever since.  My dog's butt-rubbing is more useful in picking election winners than Zogby.

Chafee will probably lose, but he still has a chance since he still has respectable approval ratings, and great name recognition. 

PA and OH are lost, which is why I listed the GOP holding either as less than 1%.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

ok, number now add to 100%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Final Prediction:

Senate GOP -3 (PA, OH, RI)
House GOP - 17
Govs GOP -5
Gay-Marriage Amendments Pass in all 8 states

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Final Prediction:

Senate GOP -3 (PA, OH, RI)
House GOP - 17
Govs GOP -5
Gay-Marriage Amendments Pass in all 8 states

This is how I see the current odds in the Senate: 

R+2 (NJ+, MD+)                                             0.1% chance
R+1 (PA-, NJ+ MD+)                                       0.3%
R+0 (PA-, OH-,NJ+, MD+)                                 1%
R-1(PA-, OH-, MD+)                                        10%
R-2(PA-,OH-)                                                  15%
R-3(PA-,OH-,RI-)                                             25%
R-4(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-)                                   20%
R-5(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-)                           14%
R-6(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-)                    11%
R-7(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-)              3%
R-8(PA-, OH-, RI-, MT-, MO-, VA-, TN-,AZ-)     0.6%


GOP odds:
PA  50:1
OH 40:1
NJ  35:1
MD 5:2
RI 10:9
MT 1:1
MO 9:10
VA 5:6
TN  1:15
AZ  1:20

[Gustaf]

I don't get your percentages, they add up to more than 100%. How is that possible?

These are chances of each event happening.

Since the probability for one of the events happening is 100%, they must add up to 100%. As soon as a number of different alternatives add up to 100% or more, all other alternatives cannot occurr. But he's fixed it now...

[dca5347]

House Democrats +19
Senate Democrats +5
Democratic Govenors +6
Not really sure about Gay Marriage Bans;haven't really followed them