Mississippi results thread

[Sam Spade]

Probably.  The only thing interesting will be the map.

Actually, the non-black majority CDs too should be somewhat interesting.  CD-03, CD-01, CD-04, in that order (by black minority).

[Sam Spade]

No projection!

Obama leads - "exceptionally impressive" (what?)

CNN doesn't have the exit poll up yet.

[Sam Spade]

It would be nice to have the exit poll... ugh

[Sam Spade]

CNN TV has Obama winning blacks 91-9 and Clinton winning whites 72-27, according to exit poll.

% blacks?

[Sam Spade]

49% White
48% Black

Looks like the Clinton "wanting Obama to be her VP" depressed black turnout.  The exit poll is still not downloading for me.

[Sam Spade]

Well, through the base numbers folks have posted here:

Obama 56.9%
Clinton 39.6%

But the gender breakdown would be more useful

[Sam Spade]

ok, CBS

Obama 58.4%
Clinton 40.6%

[Sam Spade]

Well, the Republican poll is loading. McCain wins with 76% or so of the vote, with Huck at 15% and Paul at 8%.

Dang, I figured there were more Republicans pissed off at McCain.

Why?

[Sam Spade]

Folks, they're probably just waiting for some actual results to call it - to make sure things aren't too off.

The real question of the evening will be - who will win CD-01, CD-03, CD-04...

[Sam Spade]

11% of primary voters Republican

Clinton wins them 83-17.  That's something different.

It's Mississippi - Obama's black.  You know...

Also, the John McCain favorable's are funny too.

[Sam Spade]

Was race of candidate important to you?

Yes (30%) Clinton 38%, Obama 62%
No (67%) Clinton 42%, Obama 57%

Liars.

[Sam Spade]

Is there any place where we can get CD results, because that's likely what really matters here.

[Sam Spade]

The racial voting going on is really funny (and likely to get funnier).

[Sam Spade]

Hmm.

I'll admit that I don't know Mississippi very well (and jack about Hattiesburg), but this might be a little narrower than the exit polls showed.

DeSoto is probably underreporting relative to the % they show, btw.

DeSoto is Memphis exurbs, right?

[Sam Spade]

I expect a good bit more bumping this evening, as the various black/white parts of the state show up.

[Sam Spade]

NE Miss vs. the counties along the Mississippi river is amusing. 

Edwards protest vote has lessened a bit - compared to Louisiana/east Texas, but I have always suspected the Louisiana/Texas/Oklahoma rural areas hate women the most.

[Sam Spade]

Hey, Harry.  I like Mississippi.  But I'm the kind of clean-cut white person with a quasi-Southern accent that they're comfortable being around.

[Sam Spade]

*so far* this contest is much closer than i expected.

obama might not crack 60% after all. 

Without knowing which precincts are out where, it's nearly impossible to make any predictions.  Just enjoy the ride.

[Sam Spade]

Hey, Harry.  I like Mississippi.  But I'm the kind of clean-cut white person with a quasi-Southern accent that they're comfortable being around.

All types of people are accepted here, people of all races, both genders, and sexual orientations.  Do not buy into what the bigots claim.

Look, Harry, your dorm room is not Mississippi, and you know it.

Oh, lookie lookie, another bump from Jackson negroes!

[Sam Spade]

Map of Mississippi CD's is here. Clinton has no doubt won one, in the NE, and Obama won one.

If she wins Wicker's CD, then she will probably win Taylor's CD, which is less black.  Pickering's CD looks lost - it was probably too black anyway.

If so, then it will end up Obama +6. (I'm presuming Thompson's is 5-2)

[Sam Spade]

Obama has probably won all 4 CD's but CD-1 is tight.

Do you have the numbers in front of you at present, because I'm kinda slow in counting right now.  CD-1 and CD-4 were the ones I was curious about.

[Sam Spade]

Obama has probably won all 4 CD's but CD-1 is tight.

Do you have the numbers in front of you at present, because I'm kinda slow in counting right now.  CD-1 and CD-4 were the ones I was curious about.

I am looking at the county results map versus the CD county map, and making judgments. It is not on the level of spreadsheating it, but just eye balling it. Obama won the casino counties on the Gulf Coast which was key in CD-4. The McCain drain was just too large for Clinton. It is also threatening her in CD-1, because of the McCain drain  in DeSoto at least, but that CD per eye balling it looks skin tight.

Edit: Someone willing to spreadsheet CD-1 will probably know the winner  now. DeSoto is now all in, and Clinton only won by 8%. Lowndes was big for Obama, 3-1, with a few more votes cast there than in DeSoto.

By my math, Clinton's is ahead by about 2,000 votes in CD-01 and I suspect what's out will cancel itself out, unless the tiny sliver of Winston is actually worth something.

Once all the counties are in, I'll recheck my numbers.

[Sam Spade]

My present results for CD-01 are 51,169 Clinton to 48,663 Obama, not counting the tiny sliver of Winston (only 23% in).

The counties left are Tishomingo (Clinton), Prentiss (Clinton), Panola (Obama), Choctaw (Obama slightly - small), Clay (Obama).

Barring something weird, I'd predict Clinton takes CD-01.

[Sam Spade]

My present results for CD-01 are 51,169 Clinton to 48,663 Obama, not counting the tiny sliver of Winston (only 23% in).

The counties left are Tishomingo (Clinton), Prentiss (Clinton), Panola (Obama), Choctaw (Obama slightly - small), Clay (Obama).

Barring something weird, I'd predict Clinton takes CD-01.

I've got similar, 51204 - 49046 at a first glance.  Final count, 19 - 14 Obama, not unexpected.

What was the distribution in CD-02 and statewide, Erc.

Which parts of Marion and Jasper County are in CD-03.  It'll be a razor-tight Obama win, if my math is correct, but he's probably going to need those two slivers.

[Sam Spade]

My present results for CD-01 are 51,169 Clinton to 48,663 Obama, not counting the tiny sliver of Winston (only 23% in).

The counties left are Tishomingo (Clinton), Prentiss (Clinton), Panola (Obama), Choctaw (Obama slightly - small), Clay (Obama).

Barring something weird, I'd predict Clinton takes CD-01.

I've got similar, 51204 - 49046 at a first glance.  Final count, 19 - 14 Obama, not unexpected.

What was the distribution in CD-02 and statewide, Erc.

Which parts of Marion and Jasper County are in CD-03.  It'll be a razor-tight Obama win, if my math is correct, but he's probably going to need those two slivers.

Ok, now I know what to ask.  This is really to anyone.

Marion - 2,234 Obama, 1,788 Clinton (half of this is in CD-03 - is it white or black or mixed)
Jasper - 2,774 Obama, 1,172 Clinton (half of this is in CD-03 - black CD, but is the part white or black or mixed)

Present results (minus the parts of Marion and Jasper) CD-03
38,956 Clinton
38,447 Obama

What's left:
Perry 0% (not counted - should act like Greene County, similar populations, slightly fewer blacks)
Jackson 93% (55% Obama, 43% Clinton, about 14,500 votes so far, but who knows which racial group is last)