When will somebody put up a new state PVI chart?

[Nyvin]

That's really terrible for Democrats....it literally looks like every state that already has a huge dem margin (CA, MA, MY, WA, etc) got even more Democratic,  while a lot of the states that were on the fringe became more Republican.    The Democrats really need to be more than the Party of California.

A few of the bright spots are VA, FL, TX, AZ, and GA though.  

[Nyvin]

How is Virginia just D+1?   Hillary won it by over five points.

[Nyvin]

How is Virginia just D+1?   Hillary won it by over five points.

Because he had VA as a tie for Obama in his original calculations, when he really won by 3.8

It was even in 2012, that makes sense.   But Hillary won the two party vote in VA by a larger margin than Obama did while winning the national PV by a smaller margin (almost half).   D+1 just doesn't make sense in 2016.

[Nyvin]

How is Virginia just D+1?   Hillary won it by over five points.

VA in 2012: R 47.3%, D 51.2%, R two party share 48.0%
VA in 2016: R 44.4%, D 49.8%, R two-party share 47.1%
Average R two-party share 47.55%

The R national two-party share was 48.1% in 2012 and 49.2% in 2016, for an average of 48.65%.

The difference is D+1.1% which rounds off to D+1.

That's how the Cook PVI is calculated. It's not the winning margin.

Okay, but 47.1% - 49.2% is still -2.1% for the 2016 numbers alone,  for 2016 it should be D+2 from what I'm seeing.

Just like in 2012 the Republican two party vote share was 48% both nationally and in Virginia, so the state had a PVI of 0. 

[Nyvin]

Unless I'm missing something Texas should be R+6,  here's the numbers from this website:

TX 2016
Total two party vote: 8,551,643   
Hillary: 3,868,291   (0.452344772)
Trump: 4,683,352   (0.547655228)

National 2016:
Total two party vote: 126771042
Hillary: 64,433,399 (0.50826591)
Trump: 62,337,643 (0.49173409)

so 54.8% - 49.2% = 5.6% (rounded to R+6)

Again this is just for 2016, not 2012 and 2016.