If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign?

[PeteB]

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.

[PeteB]

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.

Trump Corp won't be at risk no matter what. He's famously litigious and will fight any future harassment from a Cruz administration or a Republican congress as much as he can. He's also incredibly thin-skinned and prides himself in never backing down from a fight. When all is said and done, either he'll be the nominee, or he'll storm out of the convention and his supporters will riot.

Don't take this the wrong way but, having worked in property development for a while, I believe that the potential risk to Trump Corporation is substantial, should Trump "freak out" and challenge everyone.  There are a hundred things (regulatory, municipal, state, federal, financial, legal) that could "go wrong" for a property developer and delay or stop a development.  Any one of them represents a potentially serious financial loss and may challenge even the most well financed operations.  Secondly, a lot of property development in NYC relies heavily on established relationships with various stakeholders - Trump's definitely does, probably more than most.  Those relationships would start turning sour or simply vaporize, if Trump was seen as vindictive and a sore loser.