VA-02: DCCC close to landing strong recruit

[MarkWarner08]

http://content.hamptonroads.com/story.cfm?story=138298&ran=235367
Sheriff McCabe, a 49 year old Navy vet, has staked out fiscally and socially conservative positions on most issues. His entrance could push this seat back into the Leans Republican column. It appears Rambo's strategy of recruiting macho men to Congress is being carried on by his successor, the more urban Rep. Chris Van Hollen.


Let's see how well the tax and spend label sticks on him!

[Adlai Stevenson]

http://content.hamptonroads.com/story.cfm?story=138298&ran=235367
Sheriff McCabe, a 49 year old Navy vet, has staked out fiscally and socially conservative positions on most issues. His entrance could push this seat back into the Leans Republican column. It appears Rambo's strategy of recruiting macho men to Congress is being carried on by his successor, the more urban Rep. Chris Van Hollen.


Let's see how well the tax and spend label sticks on him!

Well Phil Kellam had a similar background to McCabe and he was barely beaten in 2006.  I wonder if this District would be harder to win in 2008, however, as it is quite Republican.

Actually, I always wondered why Kellam lost in 2006 when it was the kind of perfect storm situation for him with a Democrat like Webb beating Allen (though I'm assuming Webb lost here narrowly as well?).  Thelma Drake had won by just 55%-45% in 2004 so I assumed she was vulnerable enough?  Can anyone answer this question? 

[Brittain33]

Well Phil Kellam had a similar background to McCabe and he was barely beaten in 2006.  I wonder if this District would be harder to win in 2008, however, as it is quite Republican.

Actually, I always wondered why Kellam lost in 2006 when it was the kind of perfect storm situation for him with a Democrat like Webb beating Allen (though I'm assuming Webb lost here narrowly as well?).  Thelma Drake had won by just 55%-45% in 2004 so I assumed she was vulnerable enough?  Can anyone answer this question? 

A story broke in fall about a past assault charge on a woman; I think the case was dismissed, it had something do with a car accident, but you do not want that kind of news coming out late in a campaign. Drake polled poorly earlier in the year but I don't believe that was a personal negative so much as her weak and recent hold on the seat. She's not from Va. Beach and stepped in late in 2004 against a third-tier Democrat so she'd never run a serious campaign district-wide.

I wouldn't say this guy represents the same background as Kellam, since Kellam was running on his family roots and experience in government financial affairs.

BTW, I suppose this means the Democrats' "Congressman McDreamy" strategy from 2006 has been retired.

[MarkWarner08]

Well Phil Kellam had a similar background to McCabe and he was barely beaten in 2006.  I wonder if this District would be harder to win in 2008, however, as it is quite Republican.

Actually, I always wondered why Kellam lost in 2006 when it was the kind of perfect storm situation for him with a Democrat like Webb beating Allen (though I'm assuming Webb lost here narrowly as well?).  Thelma Drake had won by just 55%-45% in 2004 so I assumed she was vulnerable enough?  Can anyone answer this question? 

A story broke in fall about a past assault charge on a woman; I think the case was dismissed, it had something do with a car accident, but you do not want that kind of news coming out late in a campaign. Drake polled poorly earlier in the year but I don't believe that was a personal negative so much as her weak and recent hold on the seat. She's not from Va. Beach and stepped in late in 2004 against a third-tier Democrat so she'd never run a serious campaign district-wide.

I wouldn't say this guy represents the same background as Kellam, since Kellam was running on his family roots and experience in government financial affairs.

BTW, I suppose this means the Democrats' "Congressman McDreamy" strategy from 2006 has been retired.

Mr. McDreamy types did win in IN-08 and NY-24. It could also be argued Ms. McDreamy types won in AZ-08 and NY-20.

Anyways, this Sherriff has the right kind of macho persona to carry this military centered district. The 2006 House results showed that when Democrats nominate women agaisnt Republican incumbents in swing districts, the GOP incumbent will nearly always win.  When the Democrats run macho Democrats (think Heath Shuler and Brad Ellsworth), the Republican lost.
 

[Brittain33]

Mr. McDreamy types did win in IN-08 and NY-24. It could also be argued Ms. McDreamy types won in AZ-08 and NY-20.

Of course. I'm just saying, it seemed like a big theme of recruitment last year, and this guy, well, different appeal.

[Mr.Phips]

Well Phil Kellam had a similar background to McCabe and he was barely beaten in 2006.  I wonder if this District would be harder to win in 2008, however, as it is quite Republican.

Actually, I always wondered why Kellam lost in 2006 when it was the kind of perfect storm situation for him with a Democrat like Webb beating Allen (though I'm assuming Webb lost here narrowly as well?).  Thelma Drake had won by just 55%-45% in 2004 so I assumed she was vulnerable enough?  Can anyone answer this question? 

A story broke in fall about a past assault charge on a woman; I think the case was dismissed, it had something do with a car accident, but you do not want that kind of news coming out late in a campaign. Drake polled poorly earlier in the year but I don't believe that was a personal negative so much as her weak and recent hold on the seat. She's not from Va. Beach and stepped in late in 2004 against a third-tier Democrat so she'd never run a serious campaign district-wide.

I wouldn't say this guy represents the same background as Kellam, since Kellam was running on his family roots and experience in government financial affairs.

BTW, I suppose this means the Democrats' "Congressman McDreamy" strategy from 2006 has been retired.

The assault story almost certainly cost Kellam the election. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He also ran a crappy, DC consultant-led campaign. That didn't help.