WY-AL: Simpson won't run to replace Cubin

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

When Wyoming state Rep. Colin M. Simpson surprised many by announcing Monday he will not run for the state’s open House seat, it left the Republican Party without an obvious front-runner. But party insiders expect it will take only a few weeks for another top candidate to emerge.

Simpson had the biggest name amongst the Republicans who had clearly stated an interest in the race, but the GOP has a reservoir of talent in Wyoming and party officials will intensify their efforts to recruit an experienced candidate. On that basis, CQ Politics is maintaining its rating on the race as Leans Republican, while closely monitoring developments.

Simpson, majority floor leader in the Wyoming House and son of former Wyoming Republican Sen. Alan K. Simpson, had said for months that he would challenge Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin in the party’s primary.

With the unpopular congresswoman’s retirement announcement last month, Simpson was seen as a top contender for her seat. But Simpson said that a congressional campaign was not the best thing for his family, including his two school-age sons.

“I believe that the best way that I can honor my responsibility to my family and the state is to stay in Wyoming and continue to serve in the Legislature,” Simpson told CQ Politics.

Simpson also had been short-listed as a possible appointee to the seat of Sen. Craig Thomas, who died of leukemia on June 4, but the appointment went instead to state Sen. John A. Barrasso .

Despite his seeming interest in federal office, Simpson said family concerns had to take precedence. “After the Senate run and just having a lot more time to think about it and putting deeper deliberation to it, it just did not seem to be the best thing for our family,” he said.

Simpson said his announcement was met with “disappointment but understanding and respect” for the decision. He did not rule out a congressional run at a future date.

Three other Republicans had announced their intention to run for the House seat: retired naval officer Bill Winney, who challenged Cubin in 2006; substitute teacher and motivational speaker Swede Nelson; and Casper businessman Kenn Gilchrist.

None of the three, however, was seen as a top-tier candidate, but party officials said several other top Republicans were considering a run.

“Wyoming has a deep bench of Republican candidates and has consistently elected Republicans for the last 40 years. In a presidential election year, with high Republican turnout, Wyoming will undoubtedly send another Republican to Congress,” said Betsy Andres, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Jim King, a professor of political science at the University of Wyoming in Laramie, said the strongest contenders would be Republicans with experience running statewide races, such as Cynthia Lummis, a former state treasurer who also was considered for Thomas’ Senate seat.

On the Democratic side, Internet entrepreneur Gary Trauner already has signed on to run in 2008 after nearly defeating Cubin in 2006. King said Democrats still have a shot at winning the Wyoming seat despite the state’s strong Republican lean in voter registration, but that Cubin’s withdrawal from the race makes the odds somewhat longer.

Cubin “was something of a lightning rod. There were some independents and some Republicans who were opposed to her candidacy last time who might be inclined now to stay in the Republican fold,” King said.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002635611

[Kushahontas]

there's more than 2 people to replace cubin in wyoming?

[Verily]

there's more than 2 people to replace cubin in wyoming?

The article must be bogus. It mentions a full four residents of Wyoming.

[AndrewTX]

I thought Simpson would have made a great Congressman. Hopefully he'll make a run for the Senate.

[Gabu]

there's more than 2 people to replace cubin in wyoming?

The article must be bogus. It mentions a full four residents of Wyoming.

Fixed your post.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm moving WY-AL from Safe GOP to GOP Favored.  It's fun to poke at such as sparsely populated state, but it's easy to forget that Wyoming is experiencing a population boom.

Though still one of the least populous counties in the state, Sublette has grown by 24% since 2000. This increase has been spurred by the surging costs of natural gas, a commodity that's abundant in Western Wyoming.  The surging gas revenues have helped bolster the coffers of the local government; tax receipts have risen from $16 million in 2001 to $53 million 2006.

 
Why does this matter? Because as Wyoming cities have grown richer, they've begun to invest more in teacher salaries and social services. Such investments have shifted the political debates from shouting matches over the EPA and government conspiracy theories towards education, health care, and cost of living issue. This issue territory is more friendly to Democratic politicians. The correlation between population growth and increased Democratic performance in Sublette is contrary to the national exurban trend, which bodes well for future efforts to expand the Democratic past Jackson Hole.

Gary Trauner should continue to raise issues such as tax relief for middle income voters,  increased funding for health care and education,  and less regulation for business.  If he runs on these issues and continues his outreach efforts to hunters and ranchers, it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

[AndrewTX]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

[Brittain33]

I'm moving WY-AL from Safe GOP to GOP Favored.  It's fun to poke at such as sparsely populated state, but it's easy to forget that Wyoming is experiencing a population boom.

They're recruiting heavily from the rust belt states, too. While many people who left Michigan for the south ended up as solid Republican voters, it adds a bit of volatility to a race that would have been one of the most unpredictable in the country. At the very least, these people aren't going to be receptive to the kind of "he's not from around here" attacks that would be leveled at Trauner. There is also a great deal of tension with the Republican Administration over split estates which is likely only getting worse with the energy boom.

I agree that we'd need a few more Republican mistakes and recruiting failures for Trauner to have a chance.

[agcatter]

Sure, Dems have a great shot in Wyoming's seat, with Hillarys loooong coattails in that state.  She might even push 35% on the top of the ballot.  LOL

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

[MarkWarner08]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

Trauner lost by 1,012 votes. There's actually historical precedent for a close federal election in a Presidential election year in Wyoming. In 1988, Malcolm Wallop won by just 1,322 votes.

If Democrats pick up 220 votes in a close election every 18 years, we'll finally win a close race in 2064! Unfortunately, the winning Democrat will probably lose reelection in the "Wave of '66."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

Trauner lost by 1,012 votes. There's actually historical precedent for a close federal election in a Presidential election year in Wyoming. In 1988, Malcolm Wallop won by just 1,322 votes.

If Democrats pick up 220 votes in a close election every 18 years, we'll finally win a close race in 2064! Unfortunately, the winning Democrat will probably lose reelection in the "Wave of '66."

Trauner came close solely because people were voting against Cubin.  Maybe he worked hard to get within 1,012 votes, but I'd think that a monkey wearing a birthday hat could have gotten within 2,500 in a wave year like 2006.  People weren't voting for Trauner, they were voting against Cubin.

It's like trying to argue that people were in love with Doug Forrester back when he was leading Bob Torricelli in the polls by double digits.  They weren't, and half the state didn't know who he was beyond "the guy running against Torricelli."

Swap out the candidates, and Trauner falls apart much the same way Forrester did.

[MarkWarner08]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

Trauner lost by 1,012 votes. There's actually historical precedent for a close federal election in a Presidential election year in Wyoming. In 1988, Malcolm Wallop won by just 1,322 votes.

If Democrats pick up 220 votes in a close election every 18 years, we'll finally win a close race in 2064! Unfortunately, the winning Democrat will probably lose reelection in the "Wave of '66."

Trauner came close solely because people were voting against Cubin.  Maybe he worked hard to get within 1,012 votes, but I'd think that a monkey wearing a birthday hat could have gotten within 2,500 in a wave year like 2006.  People weren't voting for Trauner, they were voting against Cubin.

It's like trying to argue that people were in love with Doug Forrester back when he was leading Bob Torricelli in the polls by double digits.  They weren't, and half the state didn't know who he was beyond "the guy running against Torricelli."

Swap out the candidates, and Trauner falls apart much the same way Forrester did.

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004? She was actually polling quite low (four point lead, if I remember correctly) before the wheelchair comment. This seems to suggest that Wyoming is either becoming more Democrat or less immune to changes in national political atmospherics.

The Wallop example is quite heartening to Democrats. This two Republican Senator with no tinge of scandal nearly lost in a Presidential election year to a second tier Democrat.

[HardRCafé]

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004?

Maybe because she showed up to work back then?

Go ahead now with your non sequitur about how I must love Tom Tancredo.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004? She was actually polling quite low (four point lead, if I remember correctly) before the wheelchair comment. This seems to suggest that Wyoming is either becoming more Democrat or less immune to changes in national political atmospherics.

The Wallop example is quite heartening to Democrats. This two Republican Senator with no tinge of scandal nearly lost in a Presidential election year to a second tier Democrat.

The only thing that made Cubin unpopular was the "wheelchair comment."  Please.

If you think Wyoming is becoming that much more Democrat, then you'll be thrilled to know both Senate seats are up this year!  Might even get up to 40% of the vote in one of them!  (Maybe!)

[Adlai Stevenson]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

Trauner lost by 1,012 votes. There's actually historical precedent for a close federal election in a Presidential election year in Wyoming. In 1988, Malcolm Wallop won by just 1,322 votes.

If Democrats pick up 220 votes in a close election every 18 years, we'll finally win a close race in 2064! Unfortunately, the winning Democrat will probably lose reelection in the "Wave of '66."

Trauner came close solely because people were voting against Cubin.  Maybe he worked hard to get within 1,012 votes, but I'd think that a monkey wearing a birthday hat could have gotten within 2,500 in a wave year like 2006.  People weren't voting for Trauner, they were voting against Cubin.

It's like trying to argue that people were in love with Doug Forrester back when he was leading Bob Torricelli in the polls by double digits.  They weren't, and half the state didn't know who he was beyond "the guy running against Torricelli."

Swap out the candidates, and Trauner falls apart much the same way Forrester did.

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004? She was actually polling quite low (four point lead, if I remember correctly) before the wheelchair comment. This seems to suggest that Wyoming is either becoming more Democrat or less immune to changes in national political atmospherics.

The Wallop example is quite heartening to Democrats. This two Republican Senator with no tinge of scandal nearly lost in a Presidential election year to a second tier Democrat.

Why did Wallop only win narrowly in 1988? 

[Person Man]

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004?

Maybe because she showed up to work back then?

Go ahead now with your non sequitur about how I must love Tom Tancredo.

She was always pretty absent from the floor. People were always pretty angry with her, but you really are only allowed to vote Republican in Wyoming. There's no commitment to democracy in Wyoming...well, outside of the government mansion.

[MarkWarner08]

...it seems entirely possible that Trauner can win in 2008.

Not...really.

Trauner most certainly can win. If Cubin is on the ticket again...and if  Freudenthal is running for something...and all republicans leave the state for a picnic...and they get locked out for the day...and hell freezes over...

The state GOP really needs to stop scheduling that picnic on election day.

Trauner lost by 1,012 votes. There's actually historical precedent for a close federal election in a Presidential election year in Wyoming. In 1988, Malcolm Wallop won by just 1,322 votes.

If Democrats pick up 220 votes in a close election every 18 years, we'll finally win a close race in 2064! Unfortunately, the winning Democrat will probably lose reelection in the "Wave of '66."

Trauner came close solely because people were voting against Cubin.  Maybe he worked hard to get within 1,012 votes, but I'd think that a monkey wearing a birthday hat could have gotten within 2,500 in a wave year like 2006.  People weren't voting for Trauner, they were voting against Cubin.

It's like trying to argue that people were in love with Doug Forrester back when he was leading Bob Torricelli in the polls by double digits.  They weren't, and half the state didn't know who he was beyond "the guy running against Torricelli."

Swap out the candidates, and Trauner falls apart much the same way Forrester did.

Good comparison between an odious New Jersey politician and an equally odious Wyoming politician. Then again, if Cubin was so horrible, how come she easily won reelection in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004? She was actually polling quite low (four point lead, if I remember correctly) before the wheelchair comment. This seems to suggest that Wyoming is either becoming more Democrat or less immune to changes in national political atmospherics.

The Wallop example is quite heartening to Democrats. This two Republican Senator with no tinge of scandal nearly lost in a Presidential election year to a second tier Democrat.

Why did Wallop only win narrowly in 1988? 

I'm also interested in an answer to that question. Does anybody have a copy of the  1990 Almanac of American Politics?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm also interested in an answer to that question. Does anybody have a copy of the  1990 Almanac of American Politics?

I do.  I'll try looking it up tonight if I can find my copy.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm also interested in an answer to that question. Does anybody have a copy of the  1990 Almanac of American Politics?

I do.  I'll try looking it up tonight if I can find my copy.

Thanks. It'll be interesting to see why Wallop underperformed against a lowly State Senator.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm also interested in an answer to that question. Does anybody have a copy of the  1990 Almanac of American Politics?

I do.  I'll try looking it up tonight if I can find my copy.

Thanks. It'll be interesting to see why Wallop underperformed against a lowly State Senator.

It turns out that it was 1988 sitting on my desk at home, not 1990.  (I still have it somewhere in a box, that I do know.)  Here's what I found in the Time archives, however.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Wallop never won with over 60% of the vote the three times he was on the ballot in Wyoming.

In 1976, he defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Gale McGee 54%-45%.  He was re-elected in 1982 over State Senator Roger McDaniel 56%-43%.  And finally in 1988 he won with 50.4% of the vote to State Senator John Vinich's 49.6%.  He retired in 1994.   

[MarkWarner08]

I'm also interested in an answer to that question. Does anybody have a copy of the  1990 Almanac of American Politics?

I do.  I'll try looking it up tonight if I can find my copy.

Thanks. It'll be interesting to see why Wallop underperformed against a lowly State Senator.

It turns out that it was 1988 sitting on my desk at home, not 1990.  (I still have it somewhere in a box, that I do know.)  Here's what I found in the Time archives, however.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks. This Wallop fellow seems to have too far right for even Wyoming.