2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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  2020 Poll Hype Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191736 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: March 09, 2020, 11:05:47 AM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on March 09, 2020, 10:56:03 AM
Monmouth poll for MI coming today, both primary and general


What time do they usually release?
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2020, 11:30:32 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 17, 2020, 05:33:56 PM
Looks like we'll have Q-pac tomorrow

Confirmed.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2020, 01:47:01 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 23, 2020, 01:40:27 PM
The Daily Kos poster was right.



My prediction:

National: Biden +7
Arizona: Biden +3
Florida: Trump +1
Michigan: Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Biden +4
Wisconsin: Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump +1

AZ-Sen: Kelly +7
NC-Sen: Cunningham +1
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2020, 10:19:40 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on June 23, 2020, 01:47:01 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 23, 2020, 01:40:27 PM
The Daily Kos poster was right.



My prediction:

National: Biden +7
Arizona: Biden +3
Florida: Trump +1
Michigan: Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Biden +4
Wisconsin: Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump +1

AZ-Sen: Kelly +7
NC-Sen: Cunningham +1




Revising this based on the poll today.

AZ: Biden +4
Florida: Biden +2
Michigan: Biden +7
Pennsylvania: Biden +9
Wisconsin: Biden +5
North Carolina: Biden +2

AZ-Sen: Kelly +8
NC-Sen: Cunningham +3
MI-Sen: Peters +8
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2020, 06:13:29 PM »
Trump +9 Sullivan +7
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2020, 01:35:06 PM »
Biden +6 for Monmouth.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2020, 11:09:49 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 28, 2020, 11:07:55 AM
Monmouth Poll for Georgia tomorrow:



My prediction:

45-45 tie for Trump/Biden.

Perdue leads Ossoff 47-42
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2020, 03:53:32 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on September 11, 2020, 02:57:11 PM


Wisconsin: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +8
Nevada: Biden +3
New Hampshire: Biden +10

MN-Sen: Smith +9
NH-Sen: Shaheen +15
NH-Gov: Sununu +24
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 08:41:44 PM »
NC: Biden +2, Cunningham and Tillis tied, Cooper +8
ME: Biden +6 (Trump +5 in ME-02), Gideon +1, Golden +4
AZ: Biden +5, Kelly +7
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2020, 12:23:15 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 10:37:32 AM by LimoLiberal »
Today:

MI: UW Madison Election Research Center
WI: UW Madison Election Research Center
PA: UW Madison Election Research Center
IA: NYT/Siena, Monmouth
GA: NYT/Siena
TX: NYT/Siena, Quinnipiac
OH: Quinnipiac
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2020, 08:05:38 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

PA: Biden +5
OH: Trump +2
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2020, 09:25:56 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2020, 08:33:27 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 03, 2020, 08:21:57 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2020, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 03, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 03, 2020, 08:05:38 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

PA: Biden +5
OH: Trump +2

Are those actual numbers from something or a prediction?

I'm sure it's his prediction for the referenced polls.  It would be nice if people would clearly label their predictions in this thread as predictions.

If you want the actual numbers, go to the polling sub-board

These are actually what the numbers are based on their model.

That's a funny coincidence; those numbers came from my brain but they do match their tracker exactly.

Sorry to confuse people, I'll mark it as a prediction next time.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 09:27:07 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 09:33:02 PM by LimoLiberal »
Tonight
Michigan (Detroit News) - Biden +5 in mid-September

Tomorrow
National (CNN) - Biden +8 in early September
North Carolina (Reuters/Ipsos) - tied in mid-September
Michigan (Reuters/Ipsos) - Biden +5 in mid-September
Pennsylvania (Monmouth) - Biden +3 in late August
Florida (Suffolk) - no previous poll

Wednesday
Wisconsin (Marquette) - Biden +4 in late August
Florida (Reuters/Ipsos) - tied in mid-September
Arizona (Reuters/Ipsos) - Biden +1 in mid-September
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2020, 03:04:40 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on October 12, 2020, 01:23:14 PM


Trump +1
Tillis +3
Cooper +6
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2020, 11:23:40 PM »
Tomorrow:
NC - (Monmouth, SurveyUSA?)

Anything else confirmed?
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2020, 09:26:22 PM »
Tomorrow:

Reuters/Ipsos in a couple of states?
Alaska? (NYT/Siena)
Montana (MSU)
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2020, 11:58:33 PM »
*Guess*

NYT: Biden 50-42
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2020, 10:01:11 PM »
Tomorrow:
TX - NYT/Siena
GA - AJC

Wednesday
WI - Marquette Law School
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2020, 09:54:29 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 11:00:39 AM by LimoLiberal »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 25, 2020, 10:01:11 PM
Tomorrow:
TX - NYT/Siena
GA - AJC

Wednesday
WI - Marquette Law School



Update
Today:
NV - NYT/Siena
NC - Reuters/Ipsos
MI - Reuters/Ipsos

Tomorrow:
WI - Marquette
ME - Colby
MI - NYT/Siena
FL - Reuters/Ipsos
AZ - Reuters/Ipsos

Thursday:
NC - NYT/Siena
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 01:05:55 PM »
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2020, 11:59:56 AM »
*Predictions*

NYT/Siena in NC: Biden +2
Monmouth in Florida: Biden +1
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2020, 01:04:02 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 30, 2020, 01:01:44 PM
Quote from: Beida on October 30, 2020, 12:36:27 PM
Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2020, 01:22:54 PM »
*Predictions*

GA-Landmark: Trump +2, Perdue +4
IA-Selzer: Trump +5, Ernst +5
PA-Monmouth: Biden +6
PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +6
FL-NYT/Siena: Tied
WI-NYT/Siena: Biden +4
AZ-NYT/Siena: Biden +4, Kelly +5
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 07:30:19 PM »
*Updated NYT/Siena predictions*

WI: Biden +4
AZ: Biden +2
PA: Biden +1
FL: Trump +1
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2020, 07:56:07 PM »
Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.
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