The Great Primary Calendar re-shuffle Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

At least the prospect of everyone celebrating Christmas at Iowa is now extremely remote.

Dang! I was hoping for an early January caucus!! I knew it wasn't going to happen.  I love the primary season and want to have the ENTIRE year full of elections!!!

It's still absolutely possible.  If Arizona moves to Feb. 7th, or if Missouri sticks with Feb. 7th because they can't get the new primary bill through the legislature or something, then you could have:

Jan. 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 31 FL
Feb. other states, like AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc.
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

Depends on any number of things, like how much space SC thinks it needs before Florida, whether Georgia tries to go really early or not, etc.

What I think is off the table though is Iowa voting in December.  Hard to see how that's going to happen now.

What if Brewer moves Arizona to January 31 and then both Florida and Georgia determine they want to go before Arizona?

Brewer can no longer move up to Jan. 31.  The deadline for doing that was today, and she said she's not doing it.

And Georgia can't go any earlier than Jan. 31.  Jan. 31 is the earliest their primary law allows them to go.

[Mr. Morden]

Ok, so something like this might this be the earliest possible calendar?

Dec. 29 IA
Jan. 3 NH
Jan. 14 SC
Jan. 21 NV
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA
Feb. 7 AZ, MN, MO
Feb. 28 MI
Mar. 6 Super Tuesday

That is possible in theory, but my sense is that SC and FL are willing to play ball in keeping Iowa out of December.  Which means that if Georgia actually goes all the way up to Jan. 31 (which it probably won't, but suppose it does), then we would either get this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 24 FL
Jan. 31 GA

or this:

Jan. 3, 4, or 5 IA
Jan. 10 NH
Jan. 21 NV, SC
Jan. 28 FL
Jan. 31 GA

depending on whether Florida is cool with a Saturday primary, and whether they want more breathing room before or after their primary.

It's not in South Carolina's interest to go so early that Iowa votes in December.  If Iowa votes in December, then there'll be even more calls to radically reform the process for next time, which could lead to South Carolina losing its privileged position near the start of the calendar in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Indeed, I think I had previously stated that Georgia can't go earlier than Jan. 31.  But it looks like I misunderstood the primary law there.  Georgia can in fact go as early as Jan. 1, as long as the SoS announces the date at least 60 days in advance of the primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/red-flags-raised-some-comments-on.html

So yes, Georgia has all the cards over Florida.  They can match Florida's primary date and go earlier if desired.  Whether SoS Brian Kemp actually wants to do that or not is unclear.

[Mr. Morden]

Jan Brewer has announced that she will *not* move up Arizona's primary, thereby locking in the primary date for February 28:

http://www.azgovernor.gov/dms/upload/PR_091211_PPEDate.pdf

Attention now shifts to Florida and Georgia (which will go first, and when will they vote?), and the question of which of the other pre-Feb. 28 primary/caucus states will end up moving.  It's still possible that the only states that will stick with pre-Feb. 28th primary/caucus dates will be IA, NH, NV, SC, MN, FL, and GA, but we'll have to wait and see.

[Mr. Morden]

Both houses of the Wisconsin legislature have now passed the bill that would move the primary to April:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/wisconsin-assembly-concurs-with-senate.html

The bill now goes to Gov. Walker, and he's expected to sign it.

In Missouri, as you may recall, the legislature passed legislation to move the primary to March, but it included other provisions that Gov. Nixon didn't like, so he vetoed it, and asked the legislature to send him a clean bill.  Now the legislature is in special session, and the House has passed a new bill to move the primary to March.  The bill is making its way through the Senate:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/march-presidential-primary-bill-from.html

The only problem is that this still isn't a clean bill.  The bill also increases the filing fee for presidential candidates.  I would presume that that's a minor enough issue that Nixon will sign the bill anyway, but it's not certain.

[Mr. Morden]

In Missouri, things are looking a bit more uncertain re: the possibility of moving the primary later.

As I said yesterday, Nixon vetoed the earlier bill that would have moved the primary to March.  He said wanted a clean bill that doesn't include extraneous items.  The House has now passed a bill that would move the primary to March (but also increases the filing fee for candidates).  The Senate is now taking up the bill, but there's some resistance to passing it:

http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=522007

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One Republican state senator now says that he's going to offer an amendment that would abolish the primary altogether and replace it with a caucus (also to be held on Feb. 7th, though it's not clear that the state has the constitutional authority to tell the parties when to hold caucuses, should they eliminate the primary).  This won't be voted on until at least Wednesday of next week.

It's not clear that this would pass, or if they'll come up with a version that the House agrees to, or that Nixon will agree to sign.  If they can't pass anything, then the status quo will remain, which is the Missouri primary being held on Feb. 7th.

It's also quite possible now that this uncertainty will drag on beyond Oct. 1, when Florida has to announce its primary date.  Florida says they want to go before every state except IA/NH/NV/SC.  As has already been mentioned here, that may be a problem, since they won't necessarily know when Georgia's primary will be held when they have to make a decision.  What if they also don't know when Missouri will vote either?  Will Florida then go pre-Feb. 7th just in case?

[Mr. Morden]

Maine caucuses will be held from Feb. 4 to Feb. 11:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/09/16/20110916republican-presidential-primaries-rogue-states-threaten-calendar-politico.html

I've updated the calendar in the OP.

In other news, NH SoS Bill Gardner says that NH will not accept going less than 7 days before Nevada, meaning that the original DNC calendar was never going to happen anyway:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

The nine members of the commission in Florida to pick the primary date have been named.  There are six Republicans and three Dems.  They will meet once on Sept. 23, and then again on Sept. 30 (and presumably pick a date at the latter meeting, since they have to decide by Oct. 1):

http://www.newsserviceflorida.com/cgi/as_web.exe?rev2011+D+7698156

And finally, it looks like Michigan has dropped the idea of moving the primary later than Feb. 28.  They'll keep it on Feb. 28, but the legislature is working on a bill that would change the primary from open to closed:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/michigan-senate-passes-february-28.html

So now we basically know for sure that Arizona and Michigan will stick with Feb. 28, and we more or less know the contours of the calendar after Feb. 28.  It's the calendar *before* Feb. 28 that remains a big mess.

[Mr. Morden]

Quick update on Missouri: There are still two different options that would involve moving the primary to March, following Nixon's veto of the earlier legislation.  One is for the legislature to override his veto.  The other is for them to pass a new bill with different provisions so that Nixon will sign it.  It looks like this Friday is the deadline for them to override the veto, so they'd have to move quickly:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/additional-notes-on-missouri.html

If they don't do that, then they'll have to pass a new bill in the special session, though as previously mentioned, it's not clear whether that'll happen or not.  It's also unclear how long the special session will last.  Conceivably, they could wrap things up this week, though going into next week is certainly possible.  It's likely that we'll have an answer on what's happening with Missouri by the end of next week, when Florida has to decide on its primary date.

[Mr. Morden]

The 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Calendar may be largely decided in Jefferson City, Missouri this Friday.

The state legislature will reconvene, to take up the presidential primary bill again, and perhaps strike some kind of last minute deal:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/missouri-senate-adjourns-presidential.html

There's a good chance that that will be the last day of the legislature's special session (though it might continue into next week), so they'll probably stay well into the night to get everything done.  In all likelihood, we'll soon know whether Missouri is sticking with a Feb. 7 primary or moving to March 6 (or, the least likely option.....cancel the primary altogether, and have it replaced with caucuses).

If the primary stays on Feb. 7th, then Florida will almost certainly vote on Jan. 31, which means Iowa will happen in early January.

Whereas if Missouri moves to March, then there's at least a chance (assuming other states move later, as expected) that Florida (and maybe Georgia) hold their primaries in mid-February, which means that we might get the Iowa caucuses as late as late January.

We should find out soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the Republican caucus for Colorado will be push forward to February 2012 instead of March if approved.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_18956141

Indeed.  They will vote on that this Saturday.

Also, Ohio has actually moved back up to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/09/22/ohio-2012-primary-to-be-in-march-not-may/

Ohio will be the second biggest delegate prize on Super Tuesday (Texas being first).  Of course, assuming that Perry wins his home state easily, Ohio will be the biggest Super Tuesday prize that will actually be contested.

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

[Mr. Morden]

Mr. Morden, how likely is it that we'll have a somewhat final calendar by next Saturday ?

Are there any states that will decide on their date after next Saturday ?

IA, NH, NV, SC, and GA will probably not have finalized things by Oct. 1, but every other state basically will have.  The only other states that might still be in limbo are states like NJ and WI, where the legislature has passed a bill, but the governor has neither signed nor vetoed it yet.

I expect that GA will be announced some time shortly after Oct. 1, and the other four states shortly after that.  The only thing might gum up the works is if NJ continues to remain in limbo like this.  Why won't Christie just sign the freaking bill?

Will GA, NJ and WI get punished by the RNC if they decide their date after Oct. 1 ?

There's apparently no actual punishment for failing to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  The rules say that you have to let the RNC know when you're going to hold your primary or caucus by Oct. 1, but it doesn't say what happens if you don't.  Last time around, there were a few states that missed the deadline, and nothing happened to them.  Still, like I said, other than these few exceptions, I expect nearly every state to meet the Oct. 1 deadline.  Florida, for example, by its own state law has to determine its primary date by Oct. 1.

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Any state other than IA/NH/NV/SC that holds a primary before March 6 loses half its delegates.  And IA/NH/NV/SC are not allowed to go earlier than Feb. 1, or they lose half their delegates.

Note that I said "primary".  If a state holds caucuses, then they only lose half their delegates for going too early if the caucus results are binding on delegate allocation.  But many caucus states aren't binding on delegate allocation, so they pay absolutely no penalty for going early.  With Iowa, for example, the results on caucus day do not technically bind the results of delegate allocation for the state, so they can go as early as they want without paying a penalty.  Same goes for Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado, which is why the first two (and possibly the third) will end up going in early February.

[Mr. Morden]

And now it looks like we may be in limbo on Missouri for some time, potentially until early November:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/23/general-mo-xgr-business-incentives_8698207.html

In brief, the primary is still, as of today, scheduled for Feb. 7.  The state House has passed a bill that would move the primary to March.  The state Senate has not yet acted on it, and it's not clear if it would pass there as is.  The legislature has adjourned for today, and will technically remain in special session for the foreseeable future, but only with one or two senators meeting each day to keep the session going.  In the background, you have legislators negotiating with Gov. Nixon on an overhaul of the state's tax incentives for businesses.  If they ever come to a breakthrough on that, then they'll call everyone in again to resume the session.  But this could drag on until early November, when the special session legally has to come to an end.

So, other states are going to have to start deciding what to do without the benefit of knowing how things will end in Missouri.  Florida, for example, has to decide on a date by Oct. 1, and so they're going to have to decide whether going fifth is important enough for them to schedule their primary for something like Jan. 31 or Feb. 4, thus pushing Iowa up to early January.

[Mr. Morden]

Colorado moves to Feb. 7:

http://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Colorado-GOP-moves-up-2012-caucuses-to-Feb-7-2186720.php

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Unconfirmed sources say Washington state caucus will be March 3 and Alaska will be some time in March.  I'll update the calendar in the OP if I get something more solid on that.

In any case, we now know that *at least* CO and MN caucuses will be on Feb. 7.  Possibly also MO primary and maybe ND caucus.  Given that, I would assume that at least IA, NH, NV, and SC will end up voting before Feb. 7.  My *guess* would be that Florida probably does the same, but I'm not sure.  The signals out of Florida are less clear.

If we assume that WA on March 3 is correct and that Florida does indeed go earlier than Feb. 7 and that NJ and WI move later as expected, then the final pre-Super Tuesday calendar might look something like this:

Jan. 10: IA caucus
Jan. 17: NH primary
Jan. 28: NV caucus, SC primary
Jan. 31 or Feb. 4: FL primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14 or Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

OTOH, if Florida is less determined to go 5th than we've thought, it could be:

Jan. 16: IA caucus
Jan. 24: NH primary
Feb. 4: NV caucus, SC primary
Feb. 4 - 11: ME caucus
Feb. 7: CO, MN caucuses, (MO primary?), (ND caucus?)
Feb. 14: FL primary?
Feb. 21: GA primary?
Feb. 28: AZ, MI primaries
Mar. 3: WA caucus
Mar. 7: Super Tuesday

Something close to one of those two scenarios is probably what will happen......more likely the first scenario if I had to guess.  And it's also possible that Nevada and South Carolina decide they don't want to go on the same day, in which case Iowa gets bumped up to something like Jan. 3, 4, or 5.

[Mr. Morden]

So apparently a couple of months ago, the Nevada GOP voted to tether their caucus date to the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64375_Page2.html

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OK, the only problem here is that NH SoS Bill Gardner says that he will definitely schedule NH at least 7 days before any other contest (save Iowa), in accordance with state law.  That means at least a week before Nevada:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/nhs-gardner-indicates-granite-state.html

So this could be a bit of an issue.  Of course, one solution would be for NH to abandon its traditional Tuesday primary date, and go with a Saturday.  That way, Nevada can be the Saturday after NH, and NH would still be 7 days before NV.

[Mr. Morden]

New Jersey primary (finally) moves to June:

http://njtoday.net/2011/09/26/nj-presidential-primary-returns-to-june/

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

[Mr. Morden]

Yelnoc's explanation is correct.  I'd just make one other point:

The Georgian Secretary of State has until December 31 to decide, though I do not expect him to wait much longer after Missouri decides.

He might decide before Missouri decides.  Especially if Florida goes for Jan. 31 or something.  That would make the question of whether Missouri goes with Feb. 7 or March 6 less relevant to Georgia's decision.

And while he can wait until December before making a final decision, he has to announce a date at least two months in advance of the primary.  In fact, I think every state has to announce a primary date at least two months or so in advance, in order to comply with recent federal legislation ensuring that overseas military absentee ballots are mailed out in time........but the same rule does not apply to caucuses.

[Mr. Morden]

Washington GOP caucuses moved to March 3:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/washington-republicans-to-caucus-on.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

We're now down to ten states whose primary/caucus states still seem to be in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
North Dakota
Missouri
Wisconsin

The other 40 states + DC seem to have locked themselves into the current calendar.

[Mr. Morden]

The Speaker of the House in Florida says that the primary date commission in Florida is likely to pick Jan. 31 as the primary date, in order to keep the state's primary early in the game (possibly 5th, after IA, NH, NV, and SC, though GA has the potential to jump earlier as well):

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html

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This was also interesting:

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But apparently, that pitch isn't working, as they don't want to go later than Missouri, Colorado, etc.  We'll presumably find out what they decide on Friday.

If Florida does go with Jan. 31, then it means that Iowa will end up in either the first or second week of January.

[Mr. Morden]

North Dakota caucus to March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/super-tuesday-caucuses-for-north-dakota.html

Calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Alaska
Missouri
Wisconsin

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/09/28/florida.primary/index.html

Already posted this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg3036294#msg3036294

[Mr. Morden]

Georgia SoS Kemp will apparently announce Georgia's primary date on Thursday at 11am:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/georgia-secretary-of-state-brian-kemp.html

The fact that he's announcing before Florida suggests that he's not going to leapfrog Florida.  Maybe it'll be mid-February, since that's wide open.

Meanwhile, IA/NH/NV/SC may have some kind of joint announcement on their primary dates on Thursday as well:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64613.html

Though I'd presume they don't make anything official until after Florida acts.  The calendar may well be pretty much settled (perhaps with a couple of exceptions, like Missouri) within a couple of days.

[Mr. Morden]

Do IA, NH, NV and SC lose any delegates if they are forced by FL to move from Feb to Jan?

Actually yes, at least for NH, NV, and SC.  If they move into January, then they lose half their delegates.  Iowa doesn't, because its caucus results aren't technically binding on delegate allocation (which puts it in the same boat as CO and MN).  Yes, the contest that leads off the primary calendar, and the one that gets the most national attention....actually isn't binding on delegate allocation.

In other news, the AP is reporting that Kemp is going to announce that the Georgia primary will be held on March 6 (Super Tuesday):

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/09/28/georgia-presidential-primary-will-be-march-6-2012/

So after all that drama, they may go with the safe option after all.  Meanwhile, the RNC is still pressuring Florida not to go as early as Jan. 31, and Bill Gardner says there will be no announcement this week on the NH primary date:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64674.html

If Florida does go as early as Jan. 31 and Georgia goes on Super Tuesday, then there'll be a gaping hole in the middle of February with no primaries (assuming WI moves later, as expected).  Which I guess would benefit Arizona and Michigan, since they'll get the stage to themselves for a couple of weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Alaska district conventions will be held on Super Tuesday:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2011/09/alaska-gop-to-hold-march-6-district.html

The calendar in the OP has been updated.

States with primary/caucus dates still in flux:

Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Wisconsin