COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1263465850813677571

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1263465850813677571

Yikes

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1263465850813677571

Wow. The 27% of Republicans is especially surprising.

If this poll is even partially true than Trump is in a very, very, very weak position.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1263515455869857801?s=21

President Illiteracy strikes again

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1263465850813677571

Wow. The 27% of Republicans is especially surprising.

If this poll is even partially true than Trump is in a very, very, very weak position.

Meh. Nearly all of those Republicans will come home by November because even a president do bumbles something leading to the avoidable additional deaths of tens of thousands of Americans is preferable to having - - gasp! - - a democrat in the White House. Because socialism, abortion, and black lives matters. Plus something something Tara reade.

Call that overly partisan if you want, but in the four years since Trump announced his candidacy that has been Time After Time repeatedly, empirically proven Beyond any Shadow of Doubt. Sure it's horrific, but it's also painfully true.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1263515455869857801?s=21

President Illiteracy strikes again

Orange faced babble strikes again!

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1263515455869857801?s=21

Ha, such a great sense of humor!  This is obviously just a dad joke delivered with all of Trump's typical rhetorical mannerisms.

[Gass3268]

Florida is surging.

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1263503578578202626?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Florida is surging.

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1263503578578202626?s=20

One day does not inherently mean a surge, particularly if testing has gone up or if it was a localized outbreak/focus testing program.

[It’s so Joever]

This week so far has been pretty disappointing, we definitely aren’t seeing the sustained decreases that we saw last week. Hopefully it’s just an anomaly, but it could be because of our poorly implemented reopenings (without mask laws, contact tracing, and with things such as sit-in restaurants open in some places)
Today looks like it will be no exception, with the total numbers probably being around the same place they were a week ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1263581879388663808

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1263601324513525760?s=20

[Grassroots]

This week so far has been pretty disappointing, we definitely aren’t seeing the sustained decreases that we saw last week. Hopefully it’s just an anomaly, but it could be because of our poorly implemented reopenings (without mask laws, contact tracing, and with things such as sit-in restaurants open in some places)
Today looks like it will be no exception, with the total numbers probably being around the same place they were a week ago.

Even though the numbers for every day this week have been lower than last week? Our cases are 4k lower than last Thursday per Silver's numbers, despite us having a massive amount more tests. Deaths are also way down from last week. You actually have to look at the data before saying things like this.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1263579644361502720

Decent numbers for today, especially when comparing to last Thursday.

[It’s so Joever]

This week so far has been pretty disappointing, we definitely aren’t seeing the sustained decreases that we saw last week. Hopefully it’s just an anomaly, but it could be because of our poorly implemented reopenings (without mask laws, contact tracing, and with things such as sit-in restaurants open in some places)
Today looks like it will be no exception, with the total numbers probably being around the same place they were a week ago.

I am using Worldometers and the data shows that the rate of decrease has slowed and appears to be reaching a plateau, do you suggest I change my source?
Even though the numbers for every day this week have been lower than last week? Our cases are 4k lower than last Thursday per Silver's numbers, despite us having a massive amount more tests. Deaths are also way down from last week. You actually have to look at the data before saying things like this.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1263579644361502720

Decent numbers for today, especially when comparing to last Thursday.

Even the source Silver uses shows that case numbers have plateaus recently.

Again, this could easily be a statistical anomaly, a function of more testing, etc, but it is very worrisome.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1263579644361502720

Decent numbers for today, especially when comparing to last Thursday.

Even the source Silver uses shows that case numbers have plateaus recently.

Um, testing is exponentially increasing. You're smarter than this.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1263579644361502720

Decent numbers for today, especially when comparing to last Thursday.

Even the source Silver uses shows that case numbers have plateaus recently.

Um, testing is exponentially increasing. You're smarter than this.

...I’m not disagreeing, I acknowledge increased testing is a possible cause, but these trends still are alarming, and it does seem certain parts of the US are seeing substantial case increases while former hotspots simply are calming down which also needs to be talked about.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I've been thinking the fact that we keep getting 20,000+ new cases per day is irrelevant as long as we keep increasing testing, but I'm having trouble sticking to that at this point.  Italy and Spain are now only recording about 600 new cases per day (which would be 3-4k per if scaled up to US population), and they've done significantly more per capita testing than we have.  Regardless of how many tests we do, we aren't going to get down to an acceptable number of deaths as long as we keep finding such pervasive new spread of the virus. 

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Reminder, as always, that directly comparing testing rates in March and May is not straightforward because tests aren't administered at random, and the sampling distribution for who gets tested likely changes as the test availability changes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Predictive graphs updated for Active Cases in major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 164,500

UK has a severe lack of data reporting, so this is a bit of a guess until they get back to reporting normally. I cannot comment on their medical response, but from a purely scientific perspective of the numbers, their data has clearly had the most issues including inconsistency and error of any country during this pandemia.


France



France 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,500

France is very similar to Germany in terms of the scale of cases.


Germany



Germany 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 8,250

Germany looking good and no issues with the data. They have rounded their recoveries now rather than trying to get specific exact numbers.


Spain



Spain 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 31,500

Spain looking good.


Italy



Italy 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 67,200

Italy nearly clear of the virus by the looks. They will be having a fat time soon. First infected, and first clear by these numbers.


USA



USA 21 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 652,000

USA is starting to find a fairly uniform declining rate in Active Cases. In comparison to previous predictions, it looks like the USA is going to have Active Cases well into June.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Start looking at hospitalization rates

[Grassroots]

USA is starting to find a fairly uniform declining rate in Active Cases. In comparison to previous predictions, it looks like the USA is going to have Active Cases well into June.

I think the US active cases are actually decreasing a lot steeper than this.

[GoTfan]

I'll never understand why governors think it's okay to reopen now.

Also, I'm taking any information Oxford says with a truckload of salt. Wasn't their vaccine reported not to work?

[KaiserDave]

I'll never understand why governors think it's okay to reopen now.

Also, I'm taking any information Oxford says with a truckload of salt. Wasn't their vaccine reported not to work?

We need to start reopening now. The damage of perpetual lockdown is not worth it.