What if Richard Lugar switched parties?

[Left Wing]

Let's imagine for a moment, that Richard Lugar feels the same way about the emerging tea party in 2009 that Arlen Specter did and decides to join him in switching parties. Does he survive the primary in 2012? If so, does he win the general? If he ran in 2018 for re-election if he did survive would he win again?

[KaiserDave]

Wins 2012 primary, probably and goes on to win

[Elcaspar]

I feel like it would play out similarly to when Arlen Specter switched, as Lugar was more right-wing than Specter was after all. Is it possible he would win the primary? Certainly, but it probably wouldn't be a cakewalk if Specter is any indication.

What i find more interesting is if Lugar decided to run as an independent instead.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

If Donnelly beat Mourdock, Lugar would trounce him in a general election. The state party would clear the field for him to run.

[Elcaspar]

If Donnelly beat Mourdock, Lugar would trounce him in a general election. The state party would clear the field for him to run.

Not to question your knowledge on Indiana politics as you are from there, but i am curious as how that would be any more successful than with Sestak? I guess the Indiana Democratic Party would be more receptive?

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

If Donnelly beat Mourdock, Lugar would trounce him in a general election. The state party would clear the field for him to run.

Not to question your knowledge on Indiana politics as you are from there, but i am curious as how that would be any more successful than with Sestak? I guess the Indiana Democratic Party would be more receptive?

Indiana Democrats don't do contested primaries for statewide office. It's a phobia that dates back to 2008, when Jill Long-Thompson won a bitterly-fought primary race for the gubernatorial nomination and then got clobbered by Mitch Daniels in the general. Since then, Gregg in 2012 and 2016 and Woody this year faced no primary opponent, even as initially several candidates expressed interest. If Lugar had run, Zody would have had a frank conversation with Donnelly and he would have bowed out. IOTL, Lugar made a public appeal to Democrats to back him over Mourdock and I know at least one Democrat (my Mom) voted in the Republican primary that year for the express purpose of voting for him. So even if it had gone to a contested primary, and it wouldn't have, I expect Lugar would have won.

[NewYorkExpress]

If the race goes to a contested primary, Lugar loses to Donnelly, who defeats Mourdock as IRL.

However, I think Donnelly is persuaded to either run for reelection, or if he has to run statewide for Governor.

Lugar defeats Mourdock, but he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge again if he ran in 2018.