Alabama, Oklahoma, West Virginia. Trump vote? (user search)
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  Alabama, Oklahoma, West Virginia. Trump vote? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Alabama, Oklahoma, West Virginia. Trump vote?  (Read 1755 times)
Maxwell
mah519
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Posts: 28,459
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« on: October 23, 2016, 09:30:06 PM »
Didn't Romney barely cross 60 in Alabama in 2012?

I suspect trump gets under 60 there.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2016, 05:17:55 PM »
Quote from: shua on October 24, 2016, 05:17:10 PM
AL - 59   
WV - 63
OK - 64

The basic dynamic here as far as swing from 2012 is going to be increased low income R turnout minus R defections.  In WV I think it's a small net plus for Trump, in AL and OK a small net minus.  I think black turnout in AL will be about the same.

this looks pretty good - I might hedge a little lower on Oklahoma to 62.
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