French Regionals 2010

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OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...

It's actually from Le Figaro. It isn't a surprise that the joke which mascarades itself as the French media has no clue about history or geography.

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BREAKING NEWS !
Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics...
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.

Oh, dear, not the LaRouchites. That thing is a real disease.

This obviously calls for a FLB list!

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National polls are useless and only provide entertainment. For the umpteenth time.

A OpinionWay poll in Languedoc-Roussillon
DVG 31
UMP 22
EE 12
FG 11
FN 7
PS 6
AEI 6
DVD 2
LO 1
EXD (Ligue du Midi + JC Martinez) 2

DVG 41
UMP 32
EE-FG-PS 27

Awful results for the UMP, which is unable to benefit from the weird situation here. I will laugh if the UMP falls third in a runoff.

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TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.

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New OpinionWay poll nationally

UMP 32% (+2)
PS 26% (-1)
Greens 14% (+4)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 5% (-1)
FG 5% (-1)
AEI 2% (nc)
NPA 2% (-2)
LO 1% (nc)
DVG 1% (nc)
DVD 1% (-2)
Others 2% (+2)

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For a fun exercise, here are my endorsements by region now that lists have closed:

Alsace: Jacques Fernique (EE)
Aquitaine: Jean Tellechea (EAJ-PNV); runoff: Alain Rousset (PS)
Auvergne: No endorsement; runoff: René Souchon (PS)
Bourgogne: François Sauvadet (NC-UMP)
Bretagne: Christian Troadec (PB-NTFB); runoff: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS)
Centre: No endorsement; runoff: François Bonneau (PS)
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Luc Warsmann (UMP)
Corse: Simeoni-Angelini (PNC)
Franche-Comté: Alain Fousseret (EE)
Île-de-France: Valérie Pécresse (UMP)
Languedoc-Roussillon: Raymond Couderc (UMP)
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS)
Lorraine: Laurent Hénart (UMP)
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS)
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Valérie Létard (NC-UMP)
Basse-Normandie: Laurent Beauvais (PS)
Haute-Normandie: Bruno Le Maire (UMP)
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)
Picardie: Caroline Cayeux (UMP)
Poitou-Charentes: Dominique Bussereau (UMP)
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Laurence Vichnievsky (EE)
Rhône-Alpes: No endorsement

9 UMP, 4 Greens, 3 PS (+4 in runoffs), 3 regionalists, 3 no endorsements.

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Yeah, the UMP's screwed big-time and we're in for the boringest elections to date:

Champagne-Ardenne (OpinionWay)

Warsmann (UMP) 30%
Bachy (PS-PCF) 28%
Loiselet (EE) 13%
Subtil (FN) 10%
Smith (NPA-PG) 6%
Wysocinski (AEI) 3%
Grafteaux-Paillard (MoDem) 4%
Rose (LO) 4%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 49%
Warsmann (UMP) 42%
Subtil (FN) 9%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 55%
Warsmann (UMP) 45%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%e8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20-%20Champagne%20Ardenne.pdf

I can't say I'm really surprised (except perhaps by the 55-45 blowout, which does seem a bit exaggerated to me) given that the UMP is likely lower than 2004 nationally, and it's really unfavourable everywhere for the UMP.

The only hope if the current national polling sustains itself is the bad blood between Bachy and the Greenies coming out to hurt them. Bachy and the Greenies don't like each other much, and the Green list in 2004 didn't merge (IIRC) with Bachy, so, while it's still unlikely, maybe the Greenies and Bachy will find it hard to find common ground if both are qualify and a four-way runoff with PS, Greenies, UMP and FN might save the UMP.

Now I want a Bretagne poll to see a 60-40 runoff ... and 70-30 in Limousin!

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One weird thing about this poll is that even though 71% of FN voters vote for the UMP in the runoff, the PS gains a whole 6 points between a three-way and a duel, but the UMP only gains 3 points. If the FN did really split 70-30 for the right, you would obviously expect a narrower duel than 55-45, more along the lines of 52-48. Also surprising that Bachy gets 80%+ of Green voters despite the bad blood between them.

As for Rhône-Alpes, I don't know enough abot Queyranne to make a solid endorsement (in Aquitaine, I know Rousset is a de-centralist, in Bretagne I like Le Drian a lot, in Auvergne I hate Marleix, and in Centre I don't like Novelli). Plus, the last time I endorsed a PS candidate in the Rhône-Alpes was Gerard Collomb, and it's left an extremely horrid taste in my mouth. I don't like Malgorn, though the PS' attacks on her have been disgusting and have made me colder towards them. Malgorn is quite authoritarian, she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.

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The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.

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And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

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And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.

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Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.

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Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

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Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

They submitted lists in each of the five departments, but they are campaigning in Loire-Atlantique only.

I long for the pre-2004 system.

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There's also a by-election in a rural Lozere canton on March 21, ftr.

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IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%

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IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

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IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.

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Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.

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The Greenies have been lukewarm partners with Royal in Poitou so far, so it wouldn't be entirely surprising; and they have had digs on Rhône-Alpes for quite some time (since June, basically). Though I think this is only a little temper tantrum on their part to affirm their independence, just like the NC played its little tantrum earlier this year when it threatened separate lists in IdF, Alsace, Bretagne et al. Nothing will come of nothing, so the Greenies must do something in order to get something even though they'll probably do nothing in the end.

The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.

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More on EE's threat: http://regionales.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/02/26/europe-ecologie-lance-un-bras-de-fer-avec-le-ps/#xtor=RSS-32280322

It mentions Poitou-Charentes, Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes and... Bretagne. The only region were a EE-PS-UMP runoff might hurt the left's chances at holding the region are in Rhône-Alpes (despite the article saying it could help the right in Poitou as well, but journalists don't know squat about voting patterns).

We'll see if it's a temper tantrum or a real threat in the next few days, I guess.

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Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.

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Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)

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The 2004 runoff results were:

PS 52
UMP 28
FN 20

Not very surprisingly, the FN's decline benefits the PS more than the UMP in a region where FN voters are often working class ex-lefties.

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lulz.

A 26-region full sweep by the left would be funny, very funny indeed. I still hope Fernique can pull ahead of the Bigot in Alsace (sorry, couldn't resist).