French Regionals 2010

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There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.

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NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

I don't see why the interrogation mark. It's rather obvious the left will win the runoffs. I feel the Greenies, who have been acting like stupid snobs and sprouting "WE WILL WIN ALL ZE ELECTIONZ NAUGHW", will have a rather cold shower compared to the Euros. And I have a hard time seeing the Greenies being snobby and maintaining their qualified lists in runoffs against UMP and PS, since it would entail UMP victories in places they shouldn't win and it will harm them politically to act as 'UMP-victory makers'. I think they'll pragmatically drop their OMGZ WE WILL WIN ELECTIONZ dogma between the two rounds.

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Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Perhaps, and in some cases it works. However, having your side split between parties or candidates in the first round can open you up to arch-nemesis candidates who want to kill each other, making a reconciliation impossible despite controlling a theoretical majority... the examples of such fraternal fights are countless.

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Well, I disagree with 'eaten'. CPNT, MPF (generally) and the NC were always irrelevant in the wide realm of things. Anyways.

I have said many times the UMP is now the Party of the Majority. If you approve of Sarkozy, you vote UMP. Not Party X or Party Y, you vote UMP. For better or for worse, Sarkozy and the UMP have federated the supporters of the majority into one strong party, something never seen before - to that extent at least.

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I have a hard time believing the talk of abstention above 50% partly because no such thing has ever happened before in local elections (except for the 1988 cantonals, special case), because these elections often have large personal votes going on, because of attachment to regions and an understanding of institutions.

I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.

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Well, I probably misinterpreted your statement, my apologies. There is no question in my mind about the general outcome; the left wins ala 2004. However, yes, there are questions concerning the particular result of the Greenies, MoDem, FN and also PCF.  Especially the Greenies and FN, for me.

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Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...

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November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll

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OpinionWay Rhone-Alpes (change on last poll in region - TNS-Sofres in Sept 2009)

Grossetête (UMP) 28% (-3%)
Queyranne (PS) 24% (-1%)
Meirieu (Greens) 16% (-4%)
Gollnisch (FN) 10% (+2%)
Begag (MoDem) 8% (nc)
Vieux-Marcaud (PCF) 5%
AEI 4%
Combet (NPA) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Compared to 2004, the UMP remains at or ony slightly above the UMP's runoff level (38%), while Queyranne improves from his results (47%), it seems he's benefiting from the FN's drop, though it's obviously caused by a lot more than that.

more...
NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

AEI loses 1%, but is at 2%.
Others is 3%

I don't know why they're polling AEI, since it's not sure they'll even run everywhere. Maybe only PACA, Languedoc-Roussillon... and I suppose the Greenies will do their best to prevent them from running, especially in Languedoc-Roussillon where they're preventing the Greenies from breaking 10% according to an old BVA poll.

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November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll

FTR, here are the 2004 first round national results

Left 39%
Right + CPNT 36%
EXD 16%
EXG 5%
Ecolo 2%
Others 3%

and now...

Left 44% (+5)
Right 31% (-5)
EXD 9% (-7)
Centre 7% (+7)
EXG 4% (-1)
Ecolo 2% (nc)
Others 3% (nc)

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Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Interesting cross tabs:

In a direct runoff between PS and UMP, FN voters split 56-44 for Queyranne, while MoDem voters 55-45 favour the UMP. It seems that most of the current FN vote is a real protest vote, not much of an ideological one, meaning that its voters favour the opposition in a race between Government and Opposition. The MoDem split is weird, either a result of ed up crosstabs or a right-lean in MoDem voters in the region. I mean, who votes for a Sarko-hater like Begag in the first round but votes for the Party of Sarkozy in the runoff?

It will be interesting to see if the FN's crosstabs are observed outside the region, to make sure its a national trend, and if so then it might ironically mean the UMP will actually want the FN to make the runoff in places like Champagne-Ardenne or Alsace.

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It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.

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News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

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News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.

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DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.


An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.

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DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.

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Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...

Junk poll.

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IFOP national poll (Nov 19-20)

UMP 27%
PS 21%
Greens 15%
FN 8%
PCF-PG 7%
MoDem 6%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
NC 3%
LO 2%
Others 4%

As of the OpinionWay poll, the national 'rapport de forces' was Left 44, Right 31, EXD 9, Centre 7, EXG 4, ecolo 2 and others 3.

Now, the IFOP poll's 'rapport de forces' is Left 43, Right 30, EXD 8, EXG 6, Centre 6, ecolo 3, others 4.

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Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html

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Viavoice Rhone-Alpes (Oct 30 - Nov 3: revealed on Dec 3). Rather skeptic of this poll.

UMP 26.5%
Greens 22%
PS 20%
FN 8%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
LO 5%
NPA 3%
NC 0.5%

http://www.lyoncapitale.fr/lyoncapitale/journal/univers/Politique/Regionales-2010/Sondage-Europe-Ecologie-devant-le-PS

Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.

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Senator Jean-Louis Masson (DVD) might run for DLR in Lorraine. He won 6.7% running as a DVD in 2004, and probably hurt Longuet a bit in the runoff. If he runs for DLR, it'd be a nice media coup for them, at least in the region and they might poll more than 2% there.

Also, departmental top candidates for the major parties have come out. Interesting stuff:
Michel Moyrand (PS Mayor of Perigueux, defeated Darcos in 2008) in Dordogne
Bernard Péré in Lot-et-Garonne and Marie Bové in Gironde for Greenies. Péré is a Bovéist, and Marie is Asterix's daughter.
Alain Lamassoure (UMP) MEP in Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Brice Hortefeux (UMP) in Puy-de-Dôme. More of a symbolic candidacy, like his candidacy in the Euros
Henri de Raincourt (UMP) in Yonne
Marylise Lebranchu (PS) in Finistère
Alain Rafesthain (PS) in Cher, former President of the CR until 2004 and current President of the Cher CG
Jean Germain (PS Mayor of Tours) in Indre-et-Loire
Serge Lepeltier (UMP-Radical) in Cher (defeated candidate in primaries to the nut Novelli)
Philippe Vigier (NC) in Eure-et-Loir
Nicolas Perruchot (NC) in Loir-et-Cher
Catherine Soullie (UMP) MEP in Loiret
Benoist Apparu (UMP) in Marne
Étienne Butzbach (MRC) in Belfort
Anne Hidalgo (PS) in Paris. She's a potential candidate to succeed Delanoe in 2014.
Chantal Jouanno (UMP) in Paris
Yves Jégo (UMP-Radical) in Seine-et-Marne
David Douillet (UMP) in Yvelines (second behind Pécresse)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP) in Essonne
André Santini (NC) in 92
Gérard Longuet (UMP) in Meuse. Defeated President of the CR in 2004
Sylvia Pinel (PRG) in Tarn-et-Garonne
Gérard Trémège (UMP-Radical) in Hautes-Pyrénées
Philippe Augier (NC) in Calvados. He wanted the top candidacy in the region.
Hervé Morin (NC) in Eure (3rd on list, Le Maire is first)
Antoine Chéreau (MPF Mayor of Montaigu) in Vendée
Henri de Richemont (UMP) in Charente. Sidelined ex-top candidate in the region
Hubert Falco (UMP) in Var
Bernard Deflesselles (UMP) in Bouches-du-Rhône
Gaston Franco (UMP) in Alpes-Maritimes
Damien Abad (NC) in Ain (lol)
Nora Berra (UMP) in Rhône

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What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.

Well, yeah, but I still think there's a sense of attachment in France to municipalities, departments and regions even if they don't care about local government outside of their mayor. Perhaps it would help if people knew what the regional executive actually did.

The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.

FN voters even.

I don't see why that's surprising. FN voters who voted FN based out of concern over immigration or stuff now vote UMP. Those who still vote FN are clearly opposition voters, and not ideological voters.

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After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.

After the 2007 election, a overwhelming majority of French voters approved of Sarkozy. Your point is rather flawed.

IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php

Almost exactly what I expected. The Greens on 21% is a better level for them, probably a result of increased notoriety for Duflot. The 57-43 runoff figure is pretty correct and to be expected in the current climate.

On the topic of IdF, the Left Front has nominated a high-ranking PCF apparatchik, Pierre Laurent, over the better-known but far more mavericky/independent Patrick Braouezec. That's a rather poor choice, but this poll's 7% for Laurent is rather pleasing for them still.

Also, lol @ Dolium.

Nationally, that poll is a bit weirder:

UMP-NC 30% (-1)
PS 23% (+1)
Greens 14% (-2)
FN 10% (+1)
MoDem 8% (+1)
PCF/PG 4% (-2)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 2% (new)

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IdF Ifop poll for the JDD

UMP 34%
PS 23%
Greens 16%
PCF/PG 7%
FN 6.5%
MoDem 5%
NPA 3.5%
DLR 3%
AEI 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Duflot (Greens) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Ifop has been having weird results since the Euros, and these are rather weird and too favourable to the right.

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Alsace should be held by the right, but without Zeller's centrist appeal and Sarkozy's overall unpopularity... it won't be a slam dunk. Champagne-Ardenne could very well stay on the left.

Corse depends on post-electoral alliances, but the left will win on numbers like in 2004.

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In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.

Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

No, unless the Greens withdrew.

Yes, of course. But they're going to be boring for the right in the sense that the UMP is extremely unlikely to perform significantly better than in 2004

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ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.

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National CSA poll for Le Parisien, change compared to the last CSA poll in October

UMP-NC 33% (+2)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 15% (-2)
MoDem 9% (+1)
FN 7% (-1)
PCF-PG 6% (=)
NPA 5% (-1)
LO 3% (=)

CSA is one of the worst pollsters out there.

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Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2010/01/20/01002-20100120ARTFIG00457-regionales-besancenot-tete-de-liste-en-ile-de-france-.php