Turnout in 2012 (user search)
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pbrower2a
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« on: September 10, 2011, 01:06:09 PM »

The Hard Right will go out to vote, driven by a fear of an America going into a direction that it dreads. Gay marriage. Non-whites joining the middle class instead of "knowing their (subordinate and deprived) places". Abortion. Evolution. No school prayer. Black helicopters.  The Feds taking away all firearms. And, unspoken, a black man as President of the United States, the ultimate slap on white supremacy. Much of it is subconscious, but it works on gullible, scared people who fall for reactionary and even fascist causes.

But will the rest of us? In 2010 the Obama coalition got complacent and ignored that Congress matters as much as does the President in passing legislation. Americans have gotten a hard civics lesson that they won't forget. What has the Hard Right done for anyone not a big financial backer? Its political fronts are unpopular -- especially the Tea Party which seems to have taken over the Republican Party.

Liberals and progressives know that to save their political skins they must organize in 2012 and must get a coherent message out. They are taking nothing for granted this time. They know what a Hard Right America will be -- either a fascist nightmare or a federation of Tara-like plantations with high technology. In 2010 I noticed that the liberals and progressives were badly unorganized. Such will not likely be so in 2012.

In 2008 Barack Obama had a superb GOTV campaign that Democratic politicians latched onto and won with. In 2010 there was no such campaign. In 2012 it will be back. The President will need it.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2011, 12:22:00 AM »

Non-whites joining the middle class instead of "knowing their (subordinate and deprived) places".

 

Are you kidding? That's not a right-wing fear, that's a left-wing fear. Keeping non-whites in the ghetto is requisite for them to continue voting 90% Democratic. Look what happened with so-called white ethnics (that are now hilariously often called Anglos, just like they are WASPs) once they joined the middle class.

No. The black middle class has long been more Democratic-leaning than poor blacks except on housing.  Perhaps such shows that blacks who have middle incomes are more likely to be union members, rely upon welfare recipients as clients or customers, or work for the government in some capacity.

Much the same seems to be happening among non-Cuban Hispanics. If one is a school teacher, one has good reason not to stand with the budget-cutters who would gladly lay one off if such made possible a pay-off to some special interest.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2011, 09:22:17 AM »

The left has a delusion that their policies are what the people want. 

As if the Hard Right has any modesty about its contention that it offers wish-fulfillment for the masses. Let's see - people have a snobbish attachment to powerful elites; they fall for Biblical literalism; they are xenophobic, racist, religious bigots; they are motivated only by their basest interests...just promise people prosperity and they don't care about the human cost.   

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Sometimes the Right is more capable of riling people up while hiding the ugliness of the agenda. But failure can be a speculative boom that goes bust, a war for control of economic resources that proves costlier than the resources to be made cheap, and callous treatment of the common man. I would be careful about packaging an appeal that offers prosperity but doesn't say for whom and doesn't account for human costs.

By the way -- what you considered "the Left" got a chance when Dubya failed.   

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Mario Rubio won because

(1) he won against a divided center-left
(2) the Hard Right did excellent messaging in 2010, hiding a secret agenda of its anointed 'saviors'
(3) the President did not campaign
(4) the Hard Right was unified and well-funded
(5) the economy was a mess

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He has tried to offer compromises. Those have worked badly against politicians who believe as their wire-pullers dictate (All For the Few) who want a Christian and Corporate State. These people prefer a failure of this President to any economic recovery or social justice because they want their  'new America' to resemble a fascist or feudal order.

People don't trust shareholders and executives any more now than they did in 2006.  The GOP is wildly unpopular because of the antics of people who want tax cuts for elites irrespective of harm to the non-rich. 

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Bullhist. He isn't Fidel Castro. In any event Marx describes capitalism (even if the wealth is fairly-evenly distributed) in any form as a pathological social order doomed to catastrophic failure that leads to an inevitable revolution in the name of the working classes. In any event, certain social realities favor a Marxist revolution:

1. No democracy
2. Extreme concentration of wealth and income
3. Excessive centralization of political power and economic activity
4. Mass poverty
5. Corrupt, unresponsive government
6. Breakdown of the social order

The Hard Right would impose all but the last... and it is only a matter of time before it causes some  economic calamity or provokes a war for profit that ends up a military debacle.

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I have no idea who will win the American League championship this year. Nobody has any idea of how fully the Hard Right can flood the marketplace of ideas with Orwellian propaganda. and whther Americans will respond. What worked in 2010 might fail in 2012 because the electorate just might hold the politicians successful in 2010 to account in 2012. Promise more of the same of what got no good results... and fail. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2011, 11:23:07 AM »

Pbrower sort of alludes to it, but if Obama's policies were Marxist, then he wouldn't be Marxist. Marx portrayed communism as a natural progression of society that occurs. First, you have feudal economy, then you grow in capitalism, then socialism at the hands of either revolution or appeasement of popular support, and then it falls into communist system, which really has no government.

Marx' interpretation of history is of course bunk, and anyone not a Marxist so recognizes if he has any sophistication at all. He may have gotten a few things right, but all in all, proletarian revolutions are most likely to occur where capitalism is a moral failure -- something that creates economic growth, but only for the few at the expense of the many. To be sure, there have been cases of such, but Marx underestimate the willingness of capitalists to survive by making compromises with the proletariat. Marx failed to recognize that capitalists would make an economic market out of the proletariat -- a market for cars, furniture, appliances, and non-slum housing -- and create the impression of upward mobility through merit on the job or by becoming capitalists while putting an end to the resentment that workers might have toward ownership and management. He is useful now only for discussing the final stage of human economic development -- that in which most human needs are easily met, whether a polity has 'successfully' achieved 'socialism' or has evaded it altogether.

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Capitalism has one ultimate strength: that it believes in noting other than its own survival. It can adapt. It can survive strong unions, collective bargaining, technological change, cultural change, and ethnic or religious shifts. American capitalism could survive mass conversions of Americans to some vastly-different religious heritage. What it can't protect is bad business practices that themselves create failure.


'Obamacare' is offered as a reform of what may be the worst system of finanace of medical care in the industrialized world, a cost-loading system that makes American industrial production more costly than industrial production anywhere else on behalf of the medical-industrial complex. The medical system ensures that Americans pay the highest prices in the world for prescription medicine, pays the highest rates for medical treatment, and imposes a bad system of elder-care.  We have to pay our physicians and nurses far more than the world average because they have the highest-cost educations that imply huge indebtendness to
lenders (supply and demand strikes again in a cost-loading system that decides that certain groups 'need' special breaks as privileged industries). No country has the built-in costs of our medical-care system that supposedly needs the high revenue to spur advances. We pay for a Mercedes-Benz and get a Chevrolet Impala. That's not to say that a Chevrolet Impala is a bad car -- it is just that you don't want to pay for it what you would pay for a Mercedes-Benz or even a Cadillac.

Speaking of the home country for Mercedes-Benz... German physicians earn much less than American physicians. But the German physician as a rule has gone through the educational system on heavily-subsidized schooling past the equivalent of the American high school and doesn't have the lenders to pay off. We see many foreign physicians and nurses in America -- but they aren't Germans. Maybe the Germans like their system, and maybe they don't like ours in which one has to negotiate with an insurance company before getting a procedure done. Physicians as a rule are lousy businessmen, and they shouldn't be expected to be effective negotiators or clerks.

The largest vendor to General Motors is... Blue Cross/Blue Shield. Medical costs are lower in Canada than in the US, which explains why much industrial work in the US has gone to Canada. That is no Third World country.  

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I can't say what Marx would say and neither can you. I'm more likely to consider that the survival instinct. If profits are to be derived from liberal efforts to reform capitalism, then some capitalists will jump in. Recovery efforts can be very profitable; they must be for those capitalists who are to be the contractors or suppliers. Nobody says that any contemporary equivalent of a New Deal can succeed if it fails to create profits as well as jobs.

But this is worth noting -- what President has been in the White House during the greatest privatization of industry? Barack Obama. Selling off government investments in the auto industry and others has been the mark of someone loyal to capitalism. Sure, that undoes the effect of the financial coup of 2008. Results and image can diverge greatly; Dubya was the epitome of the 'pro-business' politician.  
  
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It is normal and necessary. But I look at the record of Rick Perry in Texas, and Texas-style Big Government is best described as crony capitalism. Sure, I despise crony capitalism; it implies massive corruption because those best connected to the Leadership get the choice of what to leave as table scraps for the rest of humanity after grabbing everything in sight and making all but themselves dependent and helpless.

...All in all, people can turn out in huge numbers to cast off unpopular politicians (Congress) as they can turn out in diluted numbers because the President hasn't achieved everything that he promised. 2012 stands to act as much a referendum on Tea Party politicians who won big in 2010 as on the President. People now know as they didn't recognize in 2010 that Congress is no less important than the President, especially when Congress is as polarized in ideology as it now is. I can imagine the vote going down in districts best described as R+10 or D+10 or more severe in partisan identity -- places where one Party has a lock on electing officials. But where the Republican is in a D+3 or even R+3 district but acts like the sort of Republican who would well fit an R+20 district... you might see local spikes in the vote. Any prediction of the vote in 2012 is now an excessively-precise effort in view of much that lies outside of realities that one usually can predict. We are in uncharted territory; the comforting realities of what we may have recently experienced may no longer be available.
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