Turnout in 2012

[zorkpolitics]

When trying to forecast turnout it might be useful to look at the past:
Year  Vote (millions)  % change from previous election
1976     81.5   
1980     86.3                  5.89%
1984     92.5                  7.18%
1988     91.4                 -1.19%
1992     104.3              14.11%
1996     96.0                 -7.96%
2000     105.1               9.48%
2004     122                 16.08%
2008     131.3               7.62%

First, its interesting that turnout has been increasing faster then voting age population growth since 1996.
Second, despite the hype about Obama spurring a surge in turnout, GW's 2004 election saw almost twice as large an increase over the previous election.
Third, turnout has actually decreased twice in the last 30 yrs and I think 2012 could see a reduced total vote as some disaffected "Hope and Change", low information voters skip voting and the GOP candidates fail to inspire...