USA Today Gallup: Dems advantage on generic ballot narrows

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 48%, R: 48%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/19/21018/6832

[Adlai Stevenson]

This is laughable.  I don't trust Gallup at all. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox news had a poll narrowing to 3 pts. It isn't that laughable to me.

[Smash255]

Two other Polls had it in the double digits (both released within the last week)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tnat was before the 911 speech, Bush gets a bump when makes 911 speeches.

[Smash255]

Tnat was before the 911 speech, Bush gets a bump when makes 911 speeches.

Again wrong.  One of them was prior to the speech, the other one was after it (AP)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The affect may not happen at first but it may be a delayed effect.

[Smash255]

The affect may not happen at first but it may be a delayed effect.

or the poll could just be crap

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They also have Bush approvals moving up from 40% in the last poll to 44% in the recent poll.

[Alcon]

Fall is here...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think in time all the races that are blowouts in the battleground states will narrow.

[Smash255]

They also have Bush approvals moving up from 40% in the last poll to 44% in the recent poll.

then very easily could be an oversample of Republicans and that is what could be the difference, cosidnering the average of the last 5 polls is almost 5 points lower than that 39.4%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But if this was just one poll I can see, but this is the second poll.

[Smash255]

But if this was just one poll I can see, but this is the second poll.

And their were two polls showing a different result as well.  It is also the ONLY poll to show his approval that high.

Unless their are a few more polls showing a similar result, its a bit hard to believe consdiering that other Generic polls show different results, most the polls in the head to head races favor the Dems, Bush's approval in every other poll is lower.  All in all not worried as the majority f the other polls show a different result, and generic ballot is just that generic, and means less than the other polls do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But even if it is it shows the gap narrowing and it is a trend. Iowa markets also show that trend and so did Gallup last month when it had it 47-45%. And all the congressional polls that were released today shows the republicans gaining ground MN 6, VA 2, PA6 and 7. All the polls are showing this trend.

[Smash255]

But even if it is it shows the gap narrowing and it is a trend. Iowa markets also show that trend and so did Gallup last month when it had it 47-45%. And all the congressional polls that were released today shows the republicans gaining ground MN 6, VA 2, PA6 and 7. All the polls are showing this trend.

They were pretty much all Internal GOP polls, of course its going to show things better for the GOP, ITS AN INTERNAL POLL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not the survey polls. And there were other polls released with VA 2 that wasn't an internal poll.

[Umengus]

it's a gallup poll. Consequently, no trust. But it would not be a surprise for me if dem lose their poll advantage. Approching election, GOP comes back. Like in 2004 where dem had a great poll advantage too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All you have to do is look at the House races the advantages are starting to crack anyway MN, VA2, PA 6.

[Democratic Hawk]

Don't panic yet. Wait and see what happens in the 40 districts being polled by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics in their 'Majority Watch', as well as other generic congressional polls

I find it hard to believe that the GOP are pulling level with the Democrats in these generic congressional ballot polls

Also as far as Bush's approvals go, his approvals are pretty split between those who strongly approve and those who approve. On the other hand, those who strongly disapprove tend to remain steady at 40%

On 14 September, Rasmussen's tracking poll had Bush's approvals at 47% and his disapprovals at 50% - a net disapproval of 3%; but his approvals have continuously declined since. Yesterday, Bush's approval rating stood at 41% and his disapprovals were at 58%:

Approvals: 19% strongly approve/22% somewhat approve

Disapprovals: 16% somewhat disapprove/42% strongly disapprove

My hunch is that come 9 November, Democrats will poll more votes than Republicans nationwide in House races; however, whether their lead is strong enough to gain control of the House remains to be seen given that Dems might build superfluous majorities in their districts yet still narrowly lose scores of GOP marginals

Democrats, Independents and even Republicans, if they disapprove of Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress should just get out and vote Democrat. Make a difference Be positive. Even if the Dems are down, they are not down and out quite yet

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Fall is here...

What this guy said.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All that these polls are saying is that the Dem takeover is 50% chance of the House.

[Mike in Maryland]

it's a gallup poll. Consequently, no trust. But it would not be a surprise for me if dem lose their poll advantage. Approching election, GOP comes back. Like in 2004 where dem had a great poll advantage too.

I don't dismiss Gallup polls out of hand, but in 2004 in September and October they often showed the GOP doing much better than any other poll And Dems in 2004 most assuredly did not have a great poll advantage at this point; Kerry was running worse in polls in September than he did on election day, though Gallup was egregiously off. (Bush up by 13 in mid-Sept 2004? Come on...)

Perhaps Gallup phoned too many Republicans, as they sometimes do.  Interestingly, last week's Rasmussen poll had Bush doing better than he is in Gallup, and now he's doing worse in that survey (40% today.)

Taking MOE into account, I'd say that Bush's average approval over all polls is about 41%; Gallup is probably a few points off in the pro-GOP direction, but statistically that's probably not a significant difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But in all fairness Mike they got they predicted that Bush would win and he did.

[Eraserhead]

But in all fairness Mike they got they predicted that Bush would win and he did.

No they didn't. They predicted a 49%-49% tie in the popular vote and they predicted Kerry would carry Florida and Ohio while Bush handily carried Pennsylvania. This is why no one takes them that seriously any more.

As for these numbers, there may be some truth to them but they are already dated. This is Bush's mini 9/11 bounce. Rasmussen showed an uptick as well a few days ago (while this poll was taken) but as of today Bush's approval according to him is 40% with 58% disapproval.