NH-ARG: Obama up 8

[Tender Branson]

American Research Group:

51% Obama
43% Romney

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/06/25/obama_leads_in_new_hampshire.html

[Tender Branson]

Don't interpret too much into "people who now say they are definitely voting in November".

This will only start getting interesting in polls 1 week after the Democratic convention.

[Tender Branson]

Don't interpret too much into "people who now say they are definitely voting in November".

This will only start getting interesting in polls 1 week after the Democratic convention.

As a reference, here is the 2004 convention bounce for Kerry and Bush:



At the end of July, after the DNC, Kerry bounced from 45.5% to 48%. The fact that Bush also bounced at that time was probably because of the 1-minute Swift Boat ad that was released at that time as well.

Then in early September, after the GOP convention, Bush went from 45.5% to 50.5%. while Kerry went from 45.5% to about 43%.

The early July bounce for Kerry was probably because he picked Edwards at this time.

[Tender Branson]

It's ARG. I'm not sure what to make of this...

ARG's record in NH is about "meh":

In 2008, they said Obama by 56-41, he won by 54-45.

In 2004, their best year, they said Bush/Kerry are tied at 47% - Kerry won 50-49.

In 2000, they said Bush by 48-38 with Nader at 9 and Buchanan at 2. Bush won 48-47-4-1.