Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
1. People who fell down one of the anti-vaxx, CRT, or anti-trans conspiracy rabbit holes since the election.
2. People who think that we haven't gotten any less divided since Biden took office, credit the pre-pandemic economy to Trump, and figure "If we're going to be divided anyway, might as well have a good economy."
Trump 2020 / Biden 2024:
1. Conservatives for whom January 6th was the red line.
2. Pro-choice people who thought Roe was settled law.
3. Some moderates who tend to favor incumbents.
#2, for both groups, are going to be the largest factor IMO.
Based on 2022, a third group of Biden 2020 / Trump 2024 might be people concerned about crime, especially in cities in places like NY and CA. Won’t be enough to flip those states obviously but we might see enough of that sort of thing to ironically narrow the popular vote even if Biden does just as well or better in the EC.
