Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

The cancellation is meant for public consumption because I don't think Ukraine are doing any diplomacy that would lead to this conflict not occurring, i.e. they're not conceding anything and are counting on the West doing all the diplomacy. What it does is shame Germany publicly. That CNN got told the story tells you the Ukrainians want the Americans to know this, when that tweet from Tapper occurred the same day as the Biden-Scholz summit.

[StateBoiler]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Are France and Italy really as eager for a deal as the Germans? I haven't gotten that vibe from the way Macron is acting (and I haven't seen anything about Draghi)

Putin has said a couple times he wants to work with Draghi. So take that for what the Russians think.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1490804393813450758

I can argue that Germany cannot commit to this. Because if they do they that gives Ukraine an incentive to do their own false flag incident to trigger such an outcome (shut down Nord Stream 2)

[StateBoiler]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Seriously, what would be the deal they would offer? France, Germany, etc. can all go to Putin right now and say "we will sign a secret treaty that we will veto Ukrainian integration into NATO?" Are they going to recognize Russian annexation of Crimea? Are they going to recognize Donbass as an autonomous region? I keep waiting to hear what the hell the diplomatic solution to this crisis is that does not lead to wholesale retreat from either side.

[Agonized-Statism]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Or, y'know, we could just call it the Euro-American Split. It's been a long time coming.

[jaichind]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Or, y'know, we could just call it the Euro-American Split. It's been a long time coming.

Well the Baltics are clearly on the side of the Anglosphere as is Poland and most likely Romania so it is not just Euro-American as some East European countries are on the Anglosphere side

[Agonized-Statism]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Or, y'know, we could just call it the Euro-American Split. It's been a long time coming.

Well the Baltics are clearly on the side of the Anglosphere as is Poland and most likely Romania so it is not just Euro-American as some East European countries are on the Anglosphere side

All countries on the periphery of the EU and unlikely to stay on for further integration, which is what "Euro" refers to in this context.

[StateBoiler]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Or, y'know, we could just call it the Euro-American Split. It's been a long time coming.

Well the Baltics are clearly on the side of the Anglosphere as is Poland and most likely Romania so it is not just Euro-American as some East European countries are on the Anglosphere side

All countries on the periphery of the EU and unlikely to stay on for further integration, which is what "Euro" refers to in this context.

This is a statement without much evidence in support.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1491407103164133378

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633?s=20&t=6Dni_tsl2m3B33...

[StateBoiler]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633?s=20&t=6Dni_tsl2m3B33...

21st makes sense if the Chinese are on board.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

Full invasion like this one?   Other than that Russia has always had ability to start military action at very short notice.



https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1490124082314108938

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Full invasion like this one?

Yes although I read that Kyiv falling in 72 hours is US intelligence's worst case assessment. I think that number was given to Congress because of the criticism they received over Afghanistan.

[StateBoiler]

Full invasion like this one?

Yes although I read that Kyiv falling in 72 hours is US intelligence's worst case assessment. I think that number was given to Congress because of the criticism they received over Afghanistan.

Chair of the Joint Chiefs Milley said Kiev could fall in 72 hours.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633?s=20&t=6Dni_tsl2m3B33...

More on the high probability of Russian action and the timing of it:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1491688259923103745

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

Full invasion like this one?   Other than that Russia has always had ability to start military action at very short notice.



https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1490124082314108938

Pretending that there's no difference between having limited forces deployed and having nearly 100 battalion tactical groups in the field in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian border is just plain insulting to everyone here. You should step up your game if you want to keep pushing Putin's propaganda.

[CumbrianLefty]

OK then let's assume the above assessment is correct. Kiev falls in 2-3 days.....and then what??

[StateBoiler]

OK then let's assume the above assessment is correct. Kiev falls in 2-3 days.....and then what??

Go old school. Pre-1945:

-Russians force a settlement on Ukrainian government to sign. Troops won't leave until they do.
-Russians withdraw back to whatever they want to keep. Allows them to stabilize their control of Crimea, remove further Ukrainian influence in the Black Sea so may take coastline. Probably push west a bit from Donbass, but it's plains, who cares. Their fall-back position should allow them the ability to respond quickly if Ukraine starts to act outside the agreement or negate it.
-Western politicians will argue agreements made under military duress have no standing in the modern world and like they are ignoring Crimea is now by fact Russian, they'll ignore whatever agreement results. (This is a laughable stance in realpolitik. Try to imagine the end of World War II with Japan making this argument.) It's like a lawyer trying to argue with no army standing behind him against how things have worked for thousands of years in international relations.
-Sanctions will be imposed, the Russians won't care.
-What will Germany do on Nord Stream 2? If they keep it going I can see that ripping Europe in two diplomatically. In NATO, American hegemony will keep the talking peace. There's no American hegemon in the EU.
-Macron's EU military/independent foreign policy is dead on arrival. Europe will be NATO militarily because the French Army and other Western European states can't/won't protect the eastern states of the union from Russia like the U.S. can.
-A grab bag of states will recognize Russian territory changes. NATO states won't. Key will be what does China do. If China recognizes, I see most of the "Non-Aligned Movement" world following.
-Zelensky being a leader that just lost a war will have to deal with passionate internal political discord inside Ukraine like Saakashvili did in Georgia and Pushinyan in Armenia. I see him trying to deflect blame for the war defeat to the Americans because "when in doubt blame the Americans" is a tried and true strategy and is also a global sport.

Frankly if Kiev falls in 3 days I'm asking serious questions of Ukrainian military and political competence considering all the defense weapons they just got sent from multiple countries. The military aid has not been meant to change the result of war, but it was meant to increase the risk of invasion, make the Russians bleed more. You're not forcing them to bleed a lot if you lose the capital in 3 days.

The Ukrainians here have been quite uppity diplomatically-speaking to the point it almost feels like they want war. Their diplomacy as it exists is way more concerned with Germany than it is Russia for example. So if Kiev falls do they never concede anything? Go setup a new capital somewhere else, western Ukraine? Out of country? Which would force Russia then to occupy?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Good thread on invasion timing. 20th-21st of this month is the highest risk date but before or after that can't be ruled out. At this point Russia has the ability to start military action at very short notice.

Full invasion like this one?   Other than that Russia has always had ability to start military action at very short notice.



https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1490124082314108938

Pretending that there's no difference between having limited forces deployed and having nearly 100 battalion tactical groups in the field in the immediate vicinity of the Ukrainian border is just plain insulting to everyone here. You should step up your game if you want to keep pushing Putin's propaganda.

It's not what I wrote. Yawn.

If you think, that Full Invasion is a realistic, scenario, then yes, it's a game-changer. But I don't think, which I repeatedly said, it's a realistic scenario. I think that any invasion is unlikely, but if there will be one, it will be limited and that case, I quote myself, "Russia has always had ability to start military action at very short notice".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK then let's assume the above assessment is correct. Kiev falls in 2-3 days.....and then what??

That's my point. I don't doubt we can take Kiev in 24 hours, and whole Ukraine in 3 days, lol. But then what? Guerrilla warfare will start sooner or later and we will just start to kill the civilians/Ukraine army in the cities? No way. I don't believe there is anything positive Putin can gain by actually taking Kiev.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Frankly if Kiev falls in 3 days I'm asking serious questions of Ukrainian military and political competence considering all the defense weapons they just got sent from multiple countries. The military aid has not been meant to change the result of war, but it was meant to increase the risk of invasion, make the Russians bleed more. You're not forcing them to bleed a lot if you lose the capital in 3 days.

Imo, the military aid they've got is solely against Donbass/Luhansk type of fights.

[LabourJersey]

What I don't see is what precisely is the upside of occupying large swathes of eastern Ukraine?

Crimea I understand due to the strategic importance in the Black sea, and the most Eastern oblast maybe, given how many Russians living there. But everywhere else there will be large contingencies of angry armed nationalist Ukrainians who will wage guerilla warfare on Russian troops for as long as they occupy. Eastern Ukraine is not so resource-filled as to provide that much.

What, then is the endgame? install a more explicitly pro-Russian government in Kiev? I don't see the exit strategy here

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Same reason that successive French governments have insisted on a 'right' to use airstrips deep into Subsaharan Africa. It's a Postimperial thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full invasion like this one?

Yes although I read that Kyiv falling in 72 hours is US intelligence's worst case assessment. I think that number was given to Congress because of the criticism they received over Afghanistan.

You don't really need specific intelligence rumours to know that a direct assault on the capital with the aim of taking it in days is certainly being contemplated: there's really no other military reason for the massing of troops along Ukraine's border with Belarus. I wonder, if it comes to it, whether they'll take the short-cut through the Blighted Land or carefully go around it.

[Sol]

Yesterday in News.

Before meeting Putin Macron mentioned Finlandiation of Ukraine.

Mr. Macron said he had coordinated closely with the Western allies, including the United States and Germany. But some supporters of Ukraine’s pro-Western course have criticized him for being too solicitous of Mr. Putin’s demands. Mr. Macron did nothing to assuage those concerns by telling reporters before his meeting with Mr. Putin that a “Finlandization” of Ukraine was “one of the models on the table.”

The term alludes to how Finland, facing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, was able to maintain independence from its powerful neighbor and survive as a democracy on condition of strict neutrality. A “Finlandization” of Ukraine would imply that it would never join NATO and that Russia would exercise considerable influence over its political options.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france-ukraine.html

I was posting about something similar in another thread:

I do wonder though if some sort of Finlandization of Ukraine is a possible final outcome here--i.e. Ukraine sacrificing an independent foreign policy and probably Crimea and the Donbass in exchange for having ok relations with the West/democracy. Probably a better outcome than Russia taking large swaths of territory or a puppet government.