UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Again, its not a question of "belief" - its the actual facts.

But this thread has - tragically - become rather more relevant to its title, so lets leave it there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf there was debate at the time over the propriety of contesting byelections like Enfield Southgate in 1984 and indeed Eastbourne in 1990 (of course the Tories tried to raise it as an issue in the latter, but did so in such a crude and clumsy fashion that it undoubtedly backfired)

The nature of Cox's killing was so shocking and horrific, however, that Cameron's statement the Tories would not contest the resulting vacancy (followed by the other "main" parties, which in 2016 included UKIP even if that's not the case now) was half expected.

And having set that precedent, it would be tricky to back out of it now.

[CumbrianLefty]

What strikes me is that twenty six years separate the murders of Gow and Cox and that that's more than long enough for significant shifts in attitude. I think a big part of it is just that the magic has very much gone out of by-elections. They used to be something that politicians, for the most part, actually rather enjoyed and that the public took a reasonably keen interest in. These days I don't think that anyone really much likes them: they're an ordeal and a chore, even when they go the way one wishes them to. So perhaps there's an element of revealed preference to this: when by-elections were thought of as a critical part of our democracy, allowing their usual function to be over-ridden in response to a political murder would have been seen as giving in on some level. Now that they are not, the reverse is true.

Hmmm, an interesting take and there is likely some truth in it.

Of course, to those primarily motivated by psephology they will never stop being intriguing

[CumbrianLefty]

In other news, a couple of far right outfits have said they intend to stand in Southend West - so there is likely going to be a contest of some sort.

[CumbrianLefty]

Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.

Given the likely timetable for all that, a byelection there is unlikely before next spring.

[CumbrianLefty]

A useful rule of thumb is that nearly all recall petitions are more likely to succeed than not.

The only one to fall short thus far was the original effort in North Antrim - and that only just failed, despite being majorly hampered by a distinctly (and deliberately) low number of signing places.

[CumbrianLefty]

The irony is that one that might well have failed was North Shropshire as it is a rural constituency without a dominant centre, the opposition parties are poorly to barely organised and that, until the farcical scenes of the past week, Paterson would have been able to count on a degree of sympathy due to his personal circumstances.

I think it would still have passed even if not as easily as some previous ones, there are surely enough anti-Paterson voters in the towns to get at least close.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though how many pure "agricultural communities" are there these days anyway?

Commuters are more and more a thing in many villages. Of course these aren't usually the types of people to be favourable to Labour either, though there is the odd interesting exception.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

[CumbrianLefty]

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing

They should join the hellhole known as voteuk.

If that is a "hellhole", what is most of the web?

[CumbrianLefty]

Presumably that was in a general election, though? Slightly different dynamic there.

[CumbrianLefty]

FWIW I suspect the Tories are in genuine trouble there, but we'll see.

It's interesting because while every single indicator bar one suggests that they'll win easily, that exception (i.e. the circumstances of the by-election) is a potentially very dangerous one. People who follow elections for years often end up getting jaded and insist that circumstances never matter, but that's nonsense: quite often they don't, but sometimes they do and the result is serious trouble for the defending party. We had a good example of that earlier this year, admittedly in a constituency that, unlike North Shropshire, had only ever been an absolute rock-solid fortress of a seat for one period in its history. So we shall see.

I know what you are saying, but if - IF - the worst comes to pass for the Tories two weeks from now I suspect their choice of candidate will also be seen as a significant factor (as was indeed the case for them in C&A, and Labour in Hartlepool for that matter)

[CumbrianLefty]

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing

They should join the hellhole known as voteuk.

Part hellhole, part bizarro world.

And part one of the most indispensable sites on the web, despite the above.

[CumbrianLefty]

A poor Tory result would have been below 50%, and a genuinely good Labour one above one third.

As it is, Tories can be relieved and Labour moderately pleased (though not ecstatic) Greens will be pleased to have actually edged up and overtaken the LibDems, and Reform did the minimum required in holding their deposit - though they may have hoped for more. Other right wing outfits bombed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Onto Shropshire. Imagine that’ll get more attention by the nature of how that vacancy came to be, although I’m not certain that the end result would be much different than Bexley.

Well its not certain, but its also quite possible.

A reminder that C&A happened when the Tories were still riding high in the polls.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but the new Tory hopeful very much being an outsider *does* matter. Its the sort of thing you can get away with easily enough at a GE (Sunak being parachuted into Hague's seat being a classic example) but is much more of a risk in byelections.

And the way this contest came about won't matter as much as if Paterson was standing again, but it very much is a factor still - and one reason why Tories are nervous.

[CumbrianLefty]

That has, indeed, been noted

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the online reaction to the by-election has been very weird- with the anti Keir left saying it was a disaster based on the vote total being below 2019- when they’ve always been v keen on using % vote share for other metrics.

A funny example of the Labour forever war is the endless fight to spin by-election results- I remember Copeland in 2017 being blamed on Blair among other things.

Mr T making one of his "rare interventions" (that claim by his sycophants is genuinely side splitting) in domestic politics just days before polling to denounce Brexit - and, by perfectly logical inference, all those who had voted for it less than a year earlier - was an undoubted factor, and yes it was actually mentioned on that fabled semi-mythical "doorstep".

Almost as if he wanted Labour to lose that one, perish the very thought eh.

Which does of course not alter the main culpability for the result lying with Corbyn - in particular his almost insultingly bad local interview re the nuclear question will live long in infamy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure there’s anything more insufferable than watching Lib Dem’s and Labour activists argue over who is actually best suited to winning this by election.

Equally hilarious to see either side try to climb the high ground.

By default shouldn't the answer at this point always be Labour? The LibDems seem sad and dying at this point--like, even if they were to win, who cares? They're not the future

They are genuine political cockroaches and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off a win next week, especially given the headlines in the run up.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories have selected their next MP for Southend West, who was the loser in Canterbury in 2019.

Means that the HoC will have a new record number of women members after that vacancy is filled, regardless of whether the LibDem hopeful in N Shropshire wins or not.

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems have produced "canvass figures" from N Shropshire showing them just a point behind the Tories and Labour still in the teens. Not inconvenient, if you are in a cynical frame of mind.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh my.

Much like Hartlepool for Labour it will be the size of the majority that will hurt and really anger the Tories; this wasn’t close at all and they can’t even claim that on another night they would have won, or at least come close.

Well this is also worse as Hartlepool is at least a seat that is difficult for Labour demographically and which they could have lost in 2019- this is like Labour losing Glasgow East in 2008. We all know what happened two years later!

Glasgow East was (yes I know) only just lost, though.

Hartlepool certainly has some parallels - not least with an almost disastrously inappropriate choice of candidate for the defending party.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.

Bill Bryson said that following by-election was in itself an eccentric quirk of the British that he never understood- they’re glorious affairs and have actually got a lot more dull. The ones in the 1980s and 1990s (and before) would have daily press conferences, packed public hall meetings and quite vicious scenes too.

And of course - EXIT POLLS!

(which weren't always terribly accurate, it has to be said)

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

That has been a constant meme from said quarter since yesterday morning.

How the Labour byelection results in Witney, Richmond and Sleaford back in 2016 fit with this thesis has, as yet, not been explained by them. I'm sure they will do so in good time, though

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of people in another  forum are attacking Starmer for the poor by election performance and for "Destroying Corbyns grassroot strength".

Sometimes this sort of discourse annoys me- but yesterday it didn't at all. The Government got a hiding & that's all that mattered. Would they rather Labour took say 25% of the vote & the Tories won? Of course not.

These people are not serious as just two weeks ago they were attacking Labour for increasing its vote share in Bexley because the raw vote in a by-election with 30% turnout was lower than the number of votes as in a GE with 65% turnout. 

It's a very boring & dull school of analysis which spends its whole time looking for proof that the Starmer project is a failure- I know this because people on the Labour right did it for years with Corbyn!

You don't say.

One true "chef's kiss" moment was discourse on Labour's results in Richmond and C&A being pretty much directly reversed depending on which side of the "forever war" you are on