New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has just dropped sharply all the way down to 15.0.  Has some news about him just broken, or are some of the bettors confused about which Thompson dropped out of the race?

[© tweed]

probably just some overenthusiastic shorter who is 100% confident Thompson won't be nominated and shorted contracts all the way down the line to 15.  his bid is still over 20.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

probably just some overenthusiastic shorter who is 100% confident Thompson won't be nominated and shorted contracts all the way down the line to 15.  his bid is still over 20.

But indeed it is now official—my old boss is now higher rated to win the nomination than Fred Thompson is.

[Mr. Morden]

In the early primary states, Clinton is the favorite on the Dem. side in all of them.  On the GOP side, the favorites are:

IA Romney 50.0
NH Romney 50.0
SC Thompson 55.0
NV Thompson 55.0
FL Giuliani 55.0

Giuliani is listed as second most likely to win in NH, SC, and NV.  Thompson is second in IA and FL.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton continues to gain, still not near her highest ever trade, but basically a record high.  Obama drops to a several month low. Gore gains and slightly passes Edwards. Biden utterly tanks into more reasonable numbers.

FRED THOMPSON IS IN TOTAL FREEFALL

Democrats
Clinton 59.0
Obama 25.0
Gore 7.5
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Clark 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
Romney 23.2
Thompson 15.0
McCain 5.9
Paul 4.6
Gingrich 3.6
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Bloomberg 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[© tweed]

FRED THOMPSON IS IN TOTAL FREEFALL

not really - one guy just thought a few hours ago it'd be a good idea to short every Thompson bid.  his bid/offer are nowhere near the last transaction price.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FRED THOMPSON IS IN TOTAL FREEFALL

not really - one guy just thought a few hours ago it'd be a good idea to short every Thompson bid.  his bid/offer are nowhere near the last transaction price.

Indeed, the 15.0 was a fluke.  Still, there's no mistaking that Fred Thompson contracts are sharply lower by about 10% on the day if you split the ask/bid.

[Sam Spade]

I'm now up to 20%-25% Fred Thompson doesn't ever get into the race.  I think by all accounts it is fair to say that his numbers have dropped roughly another 3-4 points the last 2-3 weeks.

Voters don't like shell games.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama continues to slide. Gore is back down to 4th place.

Thompson mostly recovers from yesterday's freefall, although he is still down a bit. Since then, Giuliani and Romney drop a little. McCain, Paul, and Huckabee gain. Together with Gingrich, they form a clearly defined 2nd tier. The 3rd tier candidates generally fall.

Democrats
Clinton 59.1
Obama 23.7
Edwards 7.4
Gore 7.2
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1
Clark 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 35.5
Thompson 23.0
Romney 22.1
McCain 6.4
Paul 5.5
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.5
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Brownback 0.1
J. Bush 0.1




Obama:

[© tweed]

Clinton above 60.

[Reluctant Republican]

Huh. I guess the straw poll really was worthless if Brownback's that low. And I find it surprising that Huckabee is still below Paul [not that I'm complaining.] I realise its just one event, but there's been alot of talk in the last month or so about how Huckabee was the "real consevative" in the race. But I suppose people are waiting to see if all this talk amounts to fundrasing or poll success.

[Mr. Morden]

Huh. I guess the straw poll really was worthless if Brownback's that low. And I find it surprising that Huckabee is still below Paul [not that I'm complaining.] I realise its just one event, but there's been alot of talk in the last month or so about how Huckabee was the "real consevative" in the race. But I suppose people are waiting to see if all this talk amounts to fundrasing or poll success.

But Huckabee's price has more than doubled (almost tripled) relative to where it was before the straw poll, so it's definitely had some effect.  It's just that the price was so low to begin with.  And Brownback got no bounce out of his 3rd place showing, because it's only 3rd place.  It was actually kind of embarrassing that he lost out to Huckabee, who spent so much less money than he did.

[jokerman]

What happens if Thompson flops?  Does Huckabee become the next big thing?

[Reluctant Republican]

Huh. I guess the straw poll really was worthless if Brownback's that low. And I find it surprising that Huckabee is still below Paul [not that I'm complaining.] I realise its just one event, but there's been alot of talk in the last month or so about how Huckabee was the "real consevative" in the race. But I suppose people are waiting to see if all this talk amounts to fundrasing or poll success.

But Huckabee's price has more than doubled (almost tripled) relative to where it was before the straw poll, so it's definitely had some effect.  It's just that the price was so low to begin with.  And Brownback got no bounce out of his 3rd place showing, because it's only 3rd place.  It was actually kind of embarrassing that he lost out to Huckabee, who spent so much less money than he did.

Ah. I don't follow this as well as I should, I guess. Thanks for enlightening me on this. Still, I think a third place showing at Ames should at least give Brownback a boost to 0.3 or so. But eh, who knows?

[© tweed]

What happens if Thompson flops?  Does Huckabee become the next big thing?

no, I've already discussed a million times why Huckabee wdoesn't appeal to evangelicals.  maybe Brownback or Gingrich get another look.  or maybe it just becomes Giuliani vs. Romney.  also maybe McCain gets another look.

[© tweed]

and why on earth does the Gore VP stock have any life at all, let alone doubt digit life?

[Mr. Morden]

Virtually everyone is overvalued on the VP market (though Gore is really an extreme case), as there are probably something like a dozen people in each party who aren't even listed, but have maybe a few % chance each at being named VP.  For example, according to Intrade, there's a >50% chance that the Dem VP candidate will be Obama or Richardson.  To me, that seems kind of ridiculous.  There's just a huge number of people who could be chosen as a running mate, so I don't see how it could be so incredibly likely that it'll be one of those two.

[© tweed]

the point in Gore's case is that it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he'd accept the VP slot again, let alone there being anywhere close to a 10% chance of it happening.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, though it's also hard for me to imagine Edwards being offered and accepting the VP slot again, yet he's at 7.2.  And it's hard for me to imagine Obama or Edwards picking someone as potentially polarizing as Hillary Clinton for VP, yet she's at 8.2.  And it's hard for me to imagine someone picking Jeb Bush (because of his last name, and the appearance of perpetuating the "Bush dynasty") or Michael Steele (because he's only a former Lt. Governor and failed Senate candidate) for VP, yet they're at 14.1 and 5.1 respectively.

So yes, Gore may be more overvalued than anyone else, but there are loads of overvalued people in the VP market.

[jokerman]

What happens if Thompson flops?  Does Huckabee become the next big thing?

no, I've already discussed a million times why Huckabee wdoesn't appeal to evangelicals.  maybe Brownback or Gingrich get another look.  or maybe it just becomes Giuliani vs. Romney.  also maybe McCain gets another look.

Right, Huckabee doesn't have enough of that harsh, condemning rhetoric.  Is that really an acute assesment or more of an example of your cynicism for religious voters?

[© tweed]

What happens if Thompson flops?  Does Huckabee become the next big thing?

no, I've already discussed a million times why Huckabee wdoesn't appeal to evangelicals.  maybe Brownback or Gingrich get another look.  or maybe it just becomes Giuliani vs. Romney.  also maybe McCain gets another look.

Right, Huckabee doesn't have enough of that harsh, condemning rhetoric.  Is that really an acute assesment or more of an example of your cynicism for religious voters?

it's not just me, of course.  others have speculated upon it.  and if he was such an evangelical magnet he'd have made some headway by now, especially in a field lacking an undisputed social conservative.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you disagree with the Tradesports rankings, get a cashier's check and go make money off it already! 

Personally, I think Richardson and Warner stand out to me as the most likely VP choices, so I think they're pretty fairly valued.  Clinton would never be chosen, but there's always a sucker with money on TS.  (Without looking, I'd guess volume on that contract is pretty low.)

Edwards is a pretty big longshot.  If I was a "market maker," I'd be selling shares of Edwards right on down to around 5.  I'd probably sell shares of Obama down to around 15 or so.

Why?  Because Edwards was a retarded choice in 2004, and he got chosen anyway.  So why not Obama?

[poughies]

What happens if Thompson flops?  Does Huckabee become the next big thing?

no, I've already discussed a million times why Huckabee wdoesn't appeal to evangelicals.  maybe Brownback or Gingrich get another look.  or maybe it just becomes Giuliani vs. Romney.  also maybe McCain gets another look.

Right, Huckabee doesn't have enough of that harsh, condemning rhetoric.  Is that really an acute assesment or more of an example of your cynicism for religious voters?

it's not just me, of course.  others have speculated upon it.  and if he was such an evangelical magnet he'd have made some headway by now, especially in a field lacking an undisputed social conservative.

I couldn't disagree with u more on that he won't make headway. The obvious reason why he hasn't caught fire is that he doesn't have any money. This brings up the legitimate question: why doesn't he have any money? I believe there is are numerous reasons. First, when I think of religious candidates, I think of Brownback (forget the religion). Second, there was a strong outreach by McCain early on to the religious right (be it the late Falwell or Robertson), which clearly failed, but took up air. Third, which connects to the first two points, is that Huckabee isn't that well known. He was the Governor of a small southern state.

Now if he gets any money, he can get on the air. Look why the hell has Romney made any headway? I guarantee it isn't because of what he did in Massachusetts. Its money and organization.

And Fred Thompson is a joke and his voters are up for grabs. If they didn't like Romney or Giuliani already, look for them to take a look at Huckabee.

Huckabee looks a hell of a lot better in the debates than any of the candidates...... and I still have no idea how he made that evolution thing work for him.... but I walked away saying, I'm looking at a contender.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

[Eraserhead]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

I wouldn't go as far as to call him a terrific candidate but I also would have been a bit more open to the idea of him becoming President if it wasn't for his stand against science.