New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down, Obama up and close to his record high. As usual, the minor Democrats are pretty stationary.

The top 3 Republicans drop. Huckabee and Rice gain.

Democrats
Clinton 43.5
Obama 38.5
Gore 6.1
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
Thompson 32.5
Romney 16.0
McCain 4.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.3
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.0
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.6
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1
[/quote]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

People are wasting their hard earned money on Joe Biden.

The top Republican candidates gain.  Huckabee tanks.



Democrats
Clinton 44.1
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.3
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 33.9
Romney 16.4
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing too exciting...

Democrats
Clinton 44.4
Obama 38.9
Gore 5.8
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.0
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 37.9
Thompson 33.8
Romney 16.0
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[Reluctant Republican]

I'm a bit suprised that Richardson is not a little closer to Edwards, due to the how close they both were in fundrasing. I mean, he may not be up there in the polls yet, but if you look at the Republican side, Paul's pretty high, assumingly based at least somewhat on his fundraising.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm a bit suprised that Richardson is not a little closer to Edwards, due to the how close they both were in fundrasing. I mean, he may not be up there in the polls yet, but if you look at the Republican side, Paul's pretty high, assumingly based at least somewhat on his fundraising.

Richardson gets an F for his knowledge of Roe v. Wade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Really?  I think he's just keeping his options open.  He doesn't have to decide for a while yet.  I still think Bloomberg is smart enough to know that even with his $ advantage, a 3rd party candidate faces long odds at winning.  I think there's a decent chance he'll conclude that his chances of winning aren't that great, so why put himself through a national campaign?

I couldn't believe that Bloomberg seriously thought he could win the mayoral race in mid-2001 when he was still polling in the teens.  And he probably wouldn't have if not for 9/11 and the Giuliani endorsement, which certainly no one could have predicted that far out.

I don't think electability will be an issue: I think Bloomberg thinks that he probably could win this thing.

[Reluctant Republican]

I'm a bit suprised that Richardson is not a little closer to Edwards, due to the how close they both were in fundrasing. I mean, he may not be up there in the polls yet, but if you look at the Republican side, Paul's pretty high, assumingly based at least somewhat on his fundraising.

Richardson gets an F for his knowledge of Roe v. Wade.

Really? I heard him quoted somewhere saying that he had to pick a supreme court justice, he would only support one who considered Roe v. Wade the law of the land. I took that as a pretty solid endorsement of it. but maybe he changed his mind, ha ha.

[Verily]

I'm a bit suprised that Richardson is not a little closer to Edwards, due to the how close they both were in fundrasing. I mean, he may not be up there in the polls yet, but if you look at the Republican side, Paul's pretty high, assumingly based at least somewhat on his fundraising.

Edwards is polling much better, and Richardson's poor debate performances give him little room for improvement. If he were better on television, I'd put his odds as much higher, but I think Intrade has it about right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary may have picked up some momentum.  Biden and Richardson gain.

Giuliani solidifies his front runner status. Lots of minor candidates tank, only 7 Republicans are above 0.4 now.

Democrats
Clinton 45.5
Obama 38.9
Gore 5.9
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 39.8
Thompson 33.4
Romney 15.4
McCain 4.9
Paul 2.7
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hagel 0.3
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Cheney 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore drops enough that Edwards takes 3rd place.

Nothing exciting on the Republican side.


Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 38.9
Edwards 5.4
Gore 5.1
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.3


Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 34.2
Romney 15.1
McCain 4.9
Paul 2.7
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Cheney 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Post-debate Democratic status: Clinton, Edwards gain. Obama slightly down. Gore down to a solid 4th. Lower tier candidates unchanged.

Giuliani, Romney gain. Thompson getting stale. Gingrich's threats to run make him gain.

Democrats
Clinton 46.6
Obama 38.5
Edwards 6.0
Gore 4.6
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Thompson 32.6
Romney 17.0
McCain 5.0
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.6
Huckabee 0.9
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.6
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Cheney 0.2
Bloomberg 0.2
J. Bush 0.1

[poughies]

Richardson should move up after this debate i would think.

[Eraserhead]

Richardson should move up after this debate i would think.

I agree.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning indivdual

Clinton 28.3
Obama 22.0
Giuliani 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Romney 7.7
Gore 4.1
Edwards 3.7
McCain 3.7
Bloomberg 3.5

Political party winner
Democrat 56.6
Republican 38.7
Field 4.7

Congressional Democratic odds
House 82.0
Senate 81.2

Will run
Bloomberg 41.5
Gingrich 30.0
Gore 15.5

Democratic odds by state
DC 97.5
MA 95.0
NY 91.5
HI 91.0
RI 90
MD 90.0
CA 87.5
VT 86.5
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
NJ 82.6
IL 82.0
MI 80.0
NH 80.0
OR 77.5
PA 77.5
WA 75.0
MN 73.5
ME 71.0
WI 70.0
NV 60.0
NM 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL STATE)
OH 51.5
IA 49.0
FL 42.5
CO 38.0
WV 35.0
AZ 27.5
AR 24.5
KS 24.5
VA 24.5
IN 22.5
KY 22.5
LA 20.0
TN 18.0
GA 15.0
NC 15.0
SD 15.0
AK 10.0
MS 10.0
MT 10.0
ND 10.0
OK10.0
SC 10.0
TX 10.0
NE 8.0
UT 7.7
WY 7.5
AL 6.0
ID 5.0

[7,052,770]

OK 10.0

better go put some money down on that! 

[Likely Voter]

so the money where your mouth is map is thus:

Dem: 293
GOP: 245

[poughies]

Virginia is a steal at that price.....

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How the hell is Missouri more likely than Iowa and Ohio?

[Verily]

How the hell is Missouri more likely than Iowa and Ohio?

Very few transactions.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Winning indivdual

Clinton 28.3
Obama 22.0
Giuliani 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Romney 7.7
Gore 4.1
Edwards 3.7
McCain 3.7
Bloomberg 3.5

Political party winner
Democrat 56.6
Republican 38.7
Field 4.7

Congressional Democratic odds
House 82.0
Senate 81.2

Will run
Bloomberg 41.5
Gingrich 30.0
Gore 15.5

Democratic odds by state
DC 97.5
MA 95.0
NY 91.5
HI 91.0
RI 90
MD 90.0
CA 87.5
VT 86.5
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
NJ 82.6
IL 82.0
MI 80.0
NH 80.0
OR 77.5
PA 77.5
WA 75.0
MN 73.5
ME 71.0
WI 70.0
NV 60.0
NM 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL STATE)
OH 51.5
IA 49.0
FL 42.5
CO 38.0
WV 35.0
AZ 27.5
AR 24.5
KS 24.5
VA 24.5
IN 22.5
KY 22.5
LA 20.0
TN 18.0
GA 15.0
NC 15.0
SD 15.0
AK 10.0
MS 10.0
MT 10.0
ND 10.0
OK10.0
SC 10.0
TX 10.0
NE 8.0
UT 7.7
WY 7.5
AL 6.0
ID 5.0

I'd put out a strong buy on NJ-GOP, CT-GOP, AR-DEM, and WV-DEM, especially if you think Clinton and Giuliani will be the nominees.  Few are likely to pay out at full value, but they all seem undervalued.

I'd put out a weak buy on NM-GOP, NV-GOP, and CO-DEM.  VT-DEM seems like a good longshot insurance play if you think Mark Warner winds up being the Dem VP nominee.  (I'd balance it out with some of the GOP longshots though.)

Lots of opportunities to make some good money.  If only I didn't have my cash already invested in other contracts... 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lots of movement on the Democratic side. Hillary gains. Obama drops. Biden is now the highest in a while. Dodd and Kerry completely drop off.

McCain and Paul gain a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 36.4
Edwards 6.0
Gore 5.0
Richardson 2.8
Biden 1.3
Clark 0.9

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Thompson 32.5
Romney 16.9
McCain 5.6
Paul 3.0
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 1.0
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.3
Brownback 0.3
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[© tweed]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

[Verily]

Selling Paul is also always a good idea. He might be able to do reasonably well in the primaries, but there's absolutely no way he can win the nomination itself.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

Personally, I think Edwards is highly undervalued at 6.  If he does as well in Iowa as polls currently suggest he will, his option will spike considerably.  I like the idea of buying one or two shares of Edwards as an insurance policy if you're also buying Clinton or Obama: it'd only cost you $1.20 to hedge against a sharp drop in either.

I too would be buying Clinton and shorting Obama (I think the former is headed to 100 and the latter is heading to 0 without any major noise inbetween), but I think Gore is a sucker's bet.  That's going to slowly decay to 0.

(In all fairness, I should point out that I have personally shorted Gore to enter the Presidential race at 18.  A case of putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak.)

Selling Paul is also always a good idea. He might be able to do reasonably well in the primaries, but there's absolutely no way he can win the nomination itself.

If you own shares of Paul outright, I'd definitely get rid of them right now and take whatever profit you made.  I wouldn't risk shorting him at this point, though... not much return.

[SPC]

Selling Paul is also always a good idea. He might be able to do reasonably well in the primaries, but there's absolutely no way he can win the nomination itself.

I wouldn't sell Paul until after the Iowa Straw Poll. A good showing there (i.e. 2nd place) could boost his price.