DataGuy
Rookie
Posts: 217
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« on: November 11, 2018, 02:51:01 PM » |
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Interesting work. Just as I was saying in another thread about the NPV, everything tends to balance. Republicans held their majority comfortably despite losing the popular vote in 2012, and it looks like Democrats would be favored to do the same in 2020.
There seems to be a very strong incumbency advantage for House members in presidential years that can result in a large gap between the NPV and seat share. Historically, wave elections have restored equilibrium and have resulted in roughly proportional outcomes.
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