PA-SEN: Would Pat Toomey have won?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

"Toomey can't win statewide he's more conservative than Santorum."

We sure have come along way on this forum with regards to Toomeys electability in the last fourteen years. I find it positively delightful.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The thing is though, Toomey would not have run for a third term in virtually any scenario. He is a proponent of term limits and kept his pledge in the House (3 IIRC) and in the Senate (2 Terms).

MVAV and I discussed this race at length in late 2020, before January 6th when we still presumed that 2022 would be a normal midterm without the whole election denial/January 6 business and certainly before Toomey's impeachment vote.

The expectation, and one somewhat shared by insiders as well, was that of a possible bid for Governor by Toomey. So an equally valid question would be, "would Toomey have been able to beat Shapiro"?