Potential TN trends based on 2020 Congressional primary turnout

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As of now, the overall turnout through the first week of early voting is 61.7% R - 36.7% D in our open primaries.  The 25.07 point Republican advantage isn't far off from Trump's 2016 margin of 26.0 points, so I thought it might be interesting to look at some major counties in these primaries versus in the 2016 presidential election as a potential preview of trends.

Big 4 Urban Counties:
Davidson (Nashville)-
2016: Clinton +26
2020: Democrats +46
Swing: D+20

Shelby (Memphis)-
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Democrats +25
Swing: R+2

Knox (Knoxville)-
2016: Trump +24
2020: Republicans +28
Swing: R+4

Hamilton (Chattanooga)-
2016: Trump +16
2020: Republicans +11
Swing: D+5

Major Suburban Counties:
Rutherford (Murfreesboro, Nashville SE)-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +26
Swing: R+0

Williamson (Franklin, Nashville S)-
2016: Trump +35
2020: Republicans +35
Swing: Unclear +0 (both were 35.01%, and I don't feel like calculating 2016 beyond that)

Wilson (Lebanon, Nashville E)-
2016: Trump +44
2020: Republicans +42
Swing: D+2

Minor Metros/Hardeman and Haywood (the two non-urban counties that aren't Titanium R):
Montgomery (Clarksville)-
2016: Trump +18
2020: Republicans +31
Swing: R+13

Putnam (Cookeville)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +53
Swing: R+8

Madison (Jackson)-
2016: Trump +15
2020: Republicans +14
Swing: D+1

Washington (Johnson City)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +73
Swing: R+28

Haywood (1 of the 3 Clinton counties in TN, majority Black)-
2016: Clinton +10
2020: Democrats +9
Swing: R+1

Hardeman (Obama-Trump county with a significant Black population)-
2016: Trump +8
2020: Republicans +10
Swing: R+2

[100% pro-life no matter what]

While this is pretty noisy, and primary turnout can vary based on local factors, I think it looks very likely that Davidson will have the furthest leftward trend in the state.

[Idaho Conservative]

Ig just cut Nashville a bunch.  Maybe 4 ways.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ig just cut Nashville a bunch.  Maybe 4 ways.

I agree that that's likely, but if Davidson County suddenly did go from 60% Clinton to 70%+ Biden, I could see Republicans having pause, particularly if Trump's margins also were to shrink in Rutherford and/or Williamson Counties (but, both seem to be holding up OK in these numbers).

[SevenEleven]

Ig just cut Nashville a bunch.  Maybe 4 ways.

I agree that that's likely, but if Davidson County suddenly did go from 60% Clinton to 70%+ Biden, I could see Republicans having pause, particularly if Trump's margins also were to shrink in Rutherford and/or Williamson Counties (but, both seem to be holding up OK in these numbers).

Generally Republicans have higher turnout in primaries, at least in California and other large states, relative to election day results

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a72d5b17-8c8c-4363-b8da-a48e7fb902d1
Here's a solid 8-1 map.  Least red republican district is Trump+25 and takes in inner city Nashville, not suburbs, so a big leftward trend is very unlikely.  Dems are maxed out in central Nashville. 

[Greedo punched first]

I can easily draw a 9 safe R-0D map.

[lfromnj]

I can easily draw a 9 safe R-0D map.

Which is both an obvious violation of the VRA and isn't really possible as Eastern TN Rs are way too parochial

[ottermax]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

[ottermax]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

[Annatar]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Most cities shifted towards Trump though in 2016, Clinton only ran ahead of Obama in metro areas with 1 million plus people, in plenty of smaller cities, including those with a few hundred thousand people there was a big shift towards Republicans, in the Trump era in 2016 at least only metros with 1 million plus moved towards democrats, not smaller cities.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Most cities shifted towards Trump though in 2016, Clinton only ran ahead of Obama in metro areas with 1 million plus people, in plenty of smaller cities, including those with a few hundred thousand people there was a big shift towards Republicans, in the Trump era in 2016 at least only metros with 1 million plus moved towards democrats, not smaller cities.

Hamilton and Knox Counties both did trend D in 2016, although Hamilton did swing slightly R.  Chattanooga itself is moderately Democratic, but it's outvoted by its suburbs within Hamilton County.  Knoxville itself is a very light blue that could be won narrowly by a suburban-friendly Republican winning nationally, but it's borders are pretty narrow (whereas Nashville and Davidson County were merged a while back), and it's overwhelmingly outvoted by its suburbs.

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

[HillGoose]

bruh lmao @ Cookeville, bcuz it's truth.

i think its probably Demosaurs getting older to where they almost all died tho, which is pretty sad when u think about it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Updating the numbers for the final early voting totals (except for Sullivan County, which hasn't reported its last day).  As a whole, the cities look much bluer than they did at the early report, while the suburbs look slightly redder than they did before (Williamson is now showing a significant R trend).  Small metros seem to be a mixed bag in terms of their change, but it isn't much from before.

Relative to 2016, it looks like East Tennessee is more Republican, Middle Tennessee is more Republican except in Nashville (where it's MUCH more Democratic), and West Tennessee is slightly more Democratic.  Biden may have a shot to carry West Tennessee, which is a marginal Obama-Trump Grand Division.

Statewide-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +24
Swing: D+2 (was D+0)

Big 4 Urban Counties:
Davidson (Nashville)-
2016: Clinton +26
2020: Democrats +47
Swing: D+21

Shelby (Memphis)-
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Democrats +34
Swing: D+7

Knox (Knoxville)-
2016: Trump +24
2020: Republicans +25
Swing: R+1

Hamilton (Chattanooga)-
2016: Trump +16
2020: Republicans +10
Swing: D+6

Major Suburban Counties:
Rutherford (Murfreesboro, Nashville SE)-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +23
Swing: D+3

Williamson (Franklin, Nashville S)-
2016: Trump +35
2020: Republicans +39
Swing: R+4

Wilson (Lebanon, Nashville E)-
2016: Trump +44
2020: Republicans +45
Swing: R+1

Minor Metros/Hardeman and Haywood (the two non-urban counties that aren't Titanium R):
Montgomery (Clarksville)-
2016: Trump +18
2020: Republicans +30
Swing: R+12

Putnam (Cookeville)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +57
Swing: R+12

Madison (Jackson)-
2016: Trump +15
2020: Republicans +15
Swing: D+0

Washington (Johnson City)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +73 (86.2% R is truly crazy for a county of this size)
Swing: R+28

Haywood (1 of the 3 Clinton counties in TN, majority Black)-
2016: Clinton +10
2020: Democrats +12
Swing: D+2

Hardeman (Obama-Trump county with a significant Black population)-
2016: Trump +8
2020: Republicans +7
Swing: D+1

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

Do you have to cross a mountain pass to go from Watauga County to Tennessee?

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

Do you have to cross a mountain pass to go from Watauga County to Tennessee?

The boundary between East Tennessee and Watauga I believe is defined along the crest of the Appalachian mountains, so yeah, geographically the terrain is a good bit rougher than going "off the mountain" as folks there say.

That said, it isn't a situation like the Cascades or something; there are lots of overmountain roads which are passable any time of year. Boone has a decent number of service workers who live in places like Trade or Hampton over the state line due to a high cost of living. Many people in Watauga County have relatives in Tennessee. Residents of NW NC get in-state tuition at East Tennessee State University, while East Tennessee residents get in-state tuition at Appalachian State. So it's not like Boone lacks connections over there.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

Do you have to cross a mountain pass to go from Watauga County to Tennessee?

The boundary between East Tennessee and Watauga I believe is defined along the crest of the Appalachian mountains, so yeah, geographically the terrain is a good bit rougher than going "off the mountain" as folks there say.

That said, it isn't a situation like the Cascades or something; there are lots of overmountain roads which are passable any time of year. Boone has a decent number of service workers who live in places like Trade or Hampton over the state line due to a high cost of living. Many people in Watauga County have relatives in Tennessee. Residents of NW NC get in-state tuition at East Tennessee State University, while East Tennessee residents get in-state tuition at Appalachian State. So it's not like Boone lacks connections over there.

I understand.
I live in a very hilly region too.