Potential TN trends based on 2020 Congressional primary turnout

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

[Sol]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Well as referenced above Knoxville and Chattanooga have gotten better for the Democrats in the recent past, though obviously there's a way to go.

The cities with the strongest trends to Democrats in 2016 have certain profile which doesn't fit any city in Eastern TN (though it does fit Nashville)--large, at least somewhat diverse, large college educated white population, growing quickly. Knoxville and Chattanooga are growing respectably but not at the pace of Raleigh or Atlanta, and they aren't as heavy on educated people, except Knoxville to a certain extent. And none of them are as wealthy or as big as the places with big swings.

That's ignoring the Tri Cities, which are even less obvious Democratic constituencies, particularly under current coalitions.

The Tri Cities is basically an agglomeration of pretty small cities all near the other, in a mountainous area, where 90% of the people are White and I suppose many are very religious. It's no wonder that they vote more Republican than Wyoming.

Yeah the Tri-Cities are pretty obvious GOP strongholds. I'm from Watauga County, NC originally, which is actually pretty close geographically to Johnson City and which gets Johnson City TV and radio. Despite this, people in Boone basically never go to Johnson City for shopping trips or flights or whatever--they sooner would go to Winston-Salem or Charlotte, which are further away. I think this says something about the appealingness of the area.

Do you have to cross a mountain pass to go from Watauga County to Tennessee?

The boundary between East Tennessee and Watauga I believe is defined along the crest of the Appalachian mountains, so yeah, geographically the terrain is a good bit rougher than going "off the mountain" as folks there say.

That said, it isn't a situation like the Cascades or something; there are lots of overmountain roads which are passable any time of year. Boone has a decent number of service workers who live in places like Trade or Hampton over the state line due to a high cost of living. Many people in Watauga County have relatives in Tennessee. Residents of NW NC get in-state tuition at East Tennessee State University, while East Tennessee residents get in-state tuition at Appalachian State. So it's not like Boone lacks connections over there.