The real split in the Dem. party (and who actually agrees w/ Sanders on it?)? (user search)
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  The real split in the Dem. party (and who actually agrees w/ Sanders on it?)? (search mode)
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Author Topic: The real split in the Dem. party (and who actually agrees w/ Sanders on it?)?  (Read 1592 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,060
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: February 27, 2017, 08:38:29 PM »

In other news, Trump is incapable of talking about the economy other than in terms of foreigners taking our jobs, job-killing regulations, and Federal income tax rates (note: he didn't use to be so narrow-minded). What else is new?

Social issues are THE main reason people vote Republican; foreign policy has always been a non-issue with the electorate (possible exceptions: 2006, 1940).

I still don't understand why income was such a weak predictor of candidate preference in the 2016 Dem primary. Detroit (and Lake County) went for HRC; East Grand Rapids, though the least pro-Bernie part of Kent County due to its wealth, still went for Bernie.

Maybe because the wealthiest people in East Grand Rapids were voting in a different primary.
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RINO Tom
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*****
Posts: 17,060
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2017, 10:36:31 AM »
« Edited: February 28, 2017, 11:22:35 AM by RINO Tom »

In other news, Trump is incapable of talking about the economy other than in terms of foreigners taking our jobs, job-killing regulations, and Federal income tax rates (note: he didn't use to be so narrow-minded). What else is new?

Social issues are THE main reason people vote Republican; foreign policy has always been a non-issue with the electorate (possible exceptions: 2006, 1940).

I still don't understand why income was such a weak predictor of candidate preference in the 2016 Dem primary. Detroit (and Lake County) went for HRC; East Grand Rapids, though the least pro-Bernie part of Kent County due to its wealth, still went for Bernie.

Maybe because the wealthiest people in East Grand Rapids were voting in a different primary.

-Same can be said of Massachusetts, where Clinton won the primary.

Not sure about Massachusetts (and obviously my original claim was only about East Grand Rapids), but here are the Michigan income breakdowns in the exit polls:

DEMOCRATIC
4% More than $200k
20% $100k-$200k
31% $50k-$100k
22% $30k-$50k
23% Less than $30k

REPUBLICAN
7% More than $200k
23% $100k-$200k
33% $50k-$100k
23% $30k-$50k
14% Less than $30k

While not a staggering difference, Republican primary voters in Michigan were clearly more affluent on average, and there was both a significantly larger "rich" (more than $200k) voting bloc and a significantly smaller "poor" (less than $30k) voting bloc.  So, when looking at "wealthy areas" and how they voted, it's pretty important to remember that every voter only gets to vote in one primary, of his or her choosing.

EDIT: Including Massachusetts numbers below.

DEMOCRATIC
7% More than $200k
30% $100k-$200k
33% $50k-$100k
18% $30k-$50k
13% Less than $30k

REPUBLICAN
11% More than $200k
35% $100k-$200k
34% $50k-$100k
12% $30k-$50k
8% Less than $30k

So, a similar pattern in Massachusetts, too.  Although Massachusetts is a relatively wealthy state that went for Bernie, it appears its wealthier voters did tend to favor voting in a Republican primary (where, coincidentally, they voted for Trump).
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RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,060
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2017, 01:21:58 PM »

RINO, the wealthiest voters in MA tended to vote for Rubio and Kasich, not Trump. Trump did best among the upper middle class. Also, Bernie didn't win Massachusetts.

1) From the exit polls, we can't really tell that ... Trump won all income brackets and all college degree levels that were polled.  Maybe you can tell somthing else by looking at the county or town results, though.

2) I'm not even saying he won the wealthiest Republicans, all I said is that Republican voters in MA tended to be more affluent than Democratic voters in MA and they preferred Trump over the other Republicans running.  Wasn't really trying to make a point.  Surely you're not suggesting that no rich Republicans voted for Trump in the primaries, because that's ridiculous.
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RINO Tom
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*****
Posts: 17,060
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2017, 01:41:04 PM »

RINO, the wealthiest voters in MA tended to vote for Rubio and Kasich, not Trump. Trump did best among the upper middle class. Also, Bernie didn't win Massachusetts.

1) From the exit polls, we can't really tell that ... Trump won all income brackets and all college degree levels that were polled.  Maybe you can tell somthing else by looking at the county or town results, though.

Were there income brackets and college degree levels that Trump won more narrowly than others? That'll give you something to work with

Data isn't the best for income, honestly.  For some reason, they only give results for the middle two brackets, and Trump does 2% worse (49% to 47%) as you get higher, while Kasich does do 6% better (17% to 23%) and Rubio does 1% better (18% to 19%).  As far as education, there is certainly a divide, but the point still stands that Trump won both college graduates and non-college graduates.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,060
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2017, 01:54:55 PM »

RINO, the wealthiest voters in MA tended to vote for Rubio and Kasich, not Trump. Trump did best among the upper middle class. Also, Bernie didn't win Massachusetts.

1) From the exit polls, we can't really tell that ... Trump won all income brackets and all college degree levels that were polled.  Maybe you can tell somthing else by looking at the county or town results, though.

Were there income brackets and college degree levels that Trump won more narrowly than others? That'll give you something to work with

Data isn't the best for income, honestly.  For some reason, they only give results for the middle two brackets, and Trump does 2% worse (49% to 47%) as you get higher, while Kasich does do 6% better (17% to 23%) and Rubio does 1% better (18% to 19%).  As far as education, there is certainly a divide, but the point still stands that Trump won both college graduates and non-college graduates.

Unless you really care about the over $200,000 group, you can just use the data for three income categories: under $50k, $50-100k, and over $100k.  You can use algebra to figure out how many of a candidate's voters came from each of those groups, and even compare across parties, because we know how many voters there were in each party's primary.

But I've lost track of what is even being discussed here.  What point, exactly, are you guys debating

No real point being debated anymore.  Originally, when Eharding mentioned that East Grand Rapids supported Sanders (I think insinuating that there wasn't that much of an income correlation between Sanders and Clinton support, as East Grand Rapids is wealthy), I mentioned that if the wealthiest voters in East Grand Rapids were voting in GOP primaries anyway, we might not be able to draw any conclusions.  (For example, wealthy voters, if forced to choose, might pick Clinton over Sanders, but the choice they're actually making was in the Republican primary.)
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