Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[BuckeyeNut]

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

[BuckeyeNut]

If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).

I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.

Exactly what I meant.

I agree with mcmikk that nationalizing the race could well be negative, but the race isn't over till it's over. I doubt Jones wins, but refuse to give up hope.

[BuckeyeNut]

Well, the big day is here.  A few words of advice:

1. Don't read too much into anecdotal turnout or weather reports.

2. Ignore trolls.

3. If there are early exit poll results, take them with a grain of salt.

4. Have fun!

FWIW, there’s a 0% chance of rain today. Highs in the mid 40s

Thank God for that 0% chance of rain.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

[BuckeyeNut]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

Erm, no, not really.

Dem. Lt.G. Jim Folsom Jr. won with 50.61% of the vote in 2006, and now-Gov. Kay Ivey only beat him with 51.47% of the vote in 2010.

[BuckeyeNut]

Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

Not sure why Wulfric got to dictate these terms. I had no part in these negotiations, and are therefore invalidated.

Re-call Wulfric!

[BuckeyeNut]

Apparently turnout is booming in Birmingham which is Doug territory.

Citation needed.

[BuckeyeNut]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

Jones likely doesn't need to win these precincts. He just needs to over perform.

[BuckeyeNut]

Conventional wisdom tells us Moore should have no issue winning this race.
Though for some reason, it feels like there's more at stake here than say, GA-06.

The stakes are unbelievably higher. Ossoff winning would have been a symbolic victory. Jones winning is the death of the tax bill and a much easier 2018 map.

[BuckeyeNut]

Polls are closed. Time to break out the brandy.

[BuckeyeNut]

I realize it is very early yet, but I am surprised at the low number of write-in votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

Are Republicans tired of winning yet?

[BuckeyeNut]

WHERE IS ICESPEAR

[BuckeyeNut]

I am so proud of/for my state!

And we are all so proud of you!

[BuckeyeNut]

Did Jones win any CD other than Sewell's?

He'd almost have to have, right?

[BuckeyeNut]

Looks like Jones narrowly carried AL-02 and narrowly lost AL-01.

[BuckeyeNut]

Looks like Jones narrowly carried AL-02 and narrowly lost AL-01.

And seemingly only lost Mo Brook's district -- AL-05--by a hair.

[BuckeyeNut]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I find it interesting that the lesson learned here is that branding everyone to whom you have a political disagreement as pedophile is an effective tactic.

If that's the lesson that democrats take from this election, it's going to be an interesting 2018. Sure. Believe that. Believe that the way to fix America is to crusade against the wrongdoers. But look at the numbers.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans believed that the lies were in fact lies. Do you think that's going to provoke more republicans who come from the side that Democrats can be reasoned with? Or are you more likely to harden the opinion of the republicans?

Choose carefully which path you want to tread.  

Badger is only calling Moore a pedo, you dolt. He's calling you an apologist.