latest Betfair odds

[Ljube]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!

Torie, you and I both know that Romney is an unelectable, out-of-touch, entitled, white elitist. Mormon bishop to boot.

Almost any 2016 candidate would perform better than Romney, Trump included.

[/]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!

Torie, you and I both know that Romney is an unelectable, out-of-touch, entitled, white elitist. Mormon bishop to boot.

Almost any 2016 candidate would perform better than Romney, Trump included.

LOL

[Likely Voter]

Rubio has already passed Bush on PredictIt
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President

GOP
Marco Rubio   38¢
Jeb Bush   32¢
John Kasich   15¢
Donald Trump   15¢
Ben Carson   14¢
Carly Fiorina   12¢
Ted Cruz   11¢
Rand Paul   7¢
Chris Christie   7¢
Mitt Romney   7¢
Mike Huckabee   4¢
Rick Santorum   4¢
Bobby Jindal   3¢
Scott Walker   2¢
Sarah Palin   2¢
Lindsey Graham   2¢
Mike Pence   2¢
Rick Perry   1¢
Paul Ryan   1¢
Susana Martinez   1¢
George Pataki   1¢
(lol @ Gilmore not even worth being listed)

DEMS
Hillary Clinton   59¢
Bernie Sanders   29¢
Joe Biden   27¢
Martin O'Malley   8¢
Jim Webb   6¢
Elizabeth Warren   5¢
Al Gore   3¢
Jerry Brown   2¢
Lincoln Chafee   2¢
Bill de Blasio   1¢

[eric82oslo]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!

Torie, you and I both know that Romney is an unelectable, out-of-touch, entitled, white elitist. Mormon bishop to boot.

Almost any 2016 candidate would perform better than Romney, Trump included.

Oh come on, don't be ridiculous! This is so silly that I don't even feel like addressing it.

There are extremely many candidates that would do far worse than Romney in any circumstances, including Jindal, Cruz, Trump and Huckabee.

[PresidentTRUMP]

As ive said for the last few years...

GE will be ....Rubio vs. Hillary.

Only question i have now about that prediction is actually on the Dems side,  could Biden ruin my prediction, quite possible...

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Biden 19.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.0
Trump 13.1
Fiorina 8.1
Carson 7.5
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 3.8
Huckabee 3.3
Paul 1.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3045635#msg3045635

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1310811#msg1310811

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[Lyin' Steve]

Are there charts for this?

[Mr. Morden]

The Bush-Rubio gap narrows ever so slightly…

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 20.0
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.4
Trump 12.8
Carson 8.1
Fiorina 8.1
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 3.3
Romney 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3046911#msg3046911

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1312316#msg1312316

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[Mr. Morden]

Also, here’s a National Enquirer flashback from that thread from eight years ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1313631#msg1313631

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[PresidentTRUMP]

Who comes up with these numbers?

[Mr. Morden]

Who comes up with these numbers?

People betting $ on the eventual nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 68.9
Biden 20.4
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Bush 28.8
Rubio 27.7
Trump 14.1
Carson 7.5
Fiorina 7.5
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.5
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 2.9
Romney 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3051208#msg3051208

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1313474#msg1313474

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[Lyin' Steve]

Christie > Cruz wut

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really hope they change the Jeb numbers, Trump is going to be nominee

[Mr. Morden]

Just before the Democratic debate, we have Sanders rising and Biden dropping.  Will Sanders pass Biden after the debate, or will he drop like a rock?  And what about Chafee/O’Malley/Webb?  Their share prices are cheap.  If you want to buy up a bunch of shares before tomorrow night, now’s your chance.

Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Biden 18.0
Sanders 16.8
Warren 1.1
Gore 1.0
Webb 0.7
O’Malley 0.6
Chafee 0.3

Republicans
Bush 28.4
Rubio 27.3
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 7.5
Carson 7.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.5
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Romney 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3054356#msg3054356

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1314745#msg1314745

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[SillyAmerican]

It's really sad that O'Malley, Webb, and Chafee are polling lower than three candidates who aren't even running (only one of whom, MIGHT jump in).

I mean polling lower than....Al Gore.

Yet another indication of the inept American electorate. Heck, maybe we should be seeing what Kim Kardashian's polling numbers are, right? (Probably higher than O'Malley, Webb, and Chafee combined...). The sheep have gone astray.

[Mr. Morden]

This isn't "polling".  It's people placing bets on who the nominee will be.

IIRC, it's perfectly reasonable that Warren to win the Dem. nomination is priced higher than Chafee to win the Dem. nomination.  I mean, one could imagine a Clinton meltdown scenario that culminates in a successful "draft Warren" effort.  It's unlikely, but not completely impossible.

Chafee winning the nomination seems a lot more farfetched than that.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Clinton surges, O’Malley triples his share price from 0.6 to 1.8, and Biden crashes.  No one’s traded any shares of Chafee or Webb since the debate.

Up: Clinton, O’Malley, Rubio
Down: Biden, Trump, Fiorina

Democrats
Clinton 75.8
Sanders 17.4
Biden 14.9
O’Malley 1.8

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.4
Trump 13.1
Carson 7.8
Fiorina 6.4
Cruz 5.3
Christie 5.0
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.1
Romney 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3056918#msg3056918

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1316205#msg1316205

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[Lyin' Steve]

I would buy Clinton right now.

The narrative has been that while she's got strong fundamentals, she's confused and stumbling and making a mess of her campaign and embroiled in scandal and using the "I'm a woman" argument instead of making a real case for herself.

Last night showed that she's got this covered.  Her campaign isn't going to collapse.  She's solid.

Bernie isn't going to win.  Clinton hasn't even attacked him yet.  If he gets close to winning the nomination he will be destroyed through oppo and 1-on-1 debates just like she tried to do with Obama.  Except Bernie doesn't have Obama's intelligence, charisma, or poise.

[Torie]

I would buy Clinton right now.

The narrative has been that while she's got strong fundamentals, she's confused and stumbling and making a mess of her campaign and embroiled in scandal and using the "I'm a woman" argument instead of making a real case for herself.

Last night showed that she's got this covered.  Her campaign isn't going to collapse.  She's solid.

Bernie isn't going to win.  Clinton hasn't even attacked him yet.  If he gets close to winning the nomination he will be destroyed through oppo and 1-on-1 debates just like she tried to do with Obama.  Except Bernie doesn't have Obama's intelligence, charisma, or poise.

What's holding Clinton down, is nobody is sure how the email thing will end up. Absent that, and the Dem race would be over.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Would you rather risk it and make 32% on Clinton which may still yet go through a serious challenge and a bit of uncertainty (Biden? E-mails as Torie adds) or make a comparatively safer bet that the GOP nominee is not Jeb and make 41%. Risk-reward is seriously off. Rubio, Trump, Carson, Cruz and Christie are the only candidates with a real chance at the moment. Others are under 3% probability imo. Bush/Fiorina will struggle mightily in the early states. Kasich will get demolished in the south even if he got NH. Huckabee/Jindal would most likely be denied by the rest of the country even if they got an Iowa/SC/SEC Primary bounce. Bush is the easiest and most rewarding short of all those.

Disclosure: I have over 300 shares and my potential profit still stands at 61% thanks to getting in early on most of them (and profit on the next share would actually be 47% on PredictIt). I will keep buying whenever I can because his chances look bleaker every day. Someone advise me on what risks I face because I don't see many. Trump and Carson voters are not going to him, and he's not beating anybody head-to-head. A Trump-Carson-Bush split maybe? With the selfish establishment opponents, that's a risk I'm willing to face because it ain't happening.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

When did Obama start surging? Holy crap he was only at 11% this time back in 2007. LOL at being tied with Al Gore. Hillary must have had a really great fall 2007.

[Mr. Morden]

When did Obama start surging? Holy crap he was only at 11% this time back in 2007. LOL at being tied with Al Gore. Hillary must have had a really great fall 2007.

Yes, Clinton had a great Fall 2007.  On Obama’s rise…

Obama hit 15 on Nov. 13 and hit 20 on Nov. 28.  But as late as Dec. 31 (3 days before Iowa), it was:

Clinton 69.5
Obama 20.6

Then we had:

Jan. 1:
Clinton 66.0
Obama 26.0

Jan. 2:
Clinton 64.4
Obama 27.6

Jan. 3:
Clinton 61.1
Obama 32.1

Then Obama won the Iowa caucuses on the night of Jan. 3rd, had a massive surge in both polling and betting, and overtook Clinton on Intrade on Jan. 5.

[Mr. Morden]

Dem-only update:

Marty O’mentum didn’t last very long.  He’s dropped back below 1.

Up: Clinton
Down: Biden, O’Malley

Clinton 77.5
Sanders 18.3
Biden 13.1
Warren 1.1
Gore 0.9
O’Malley 0.8

[Eraserhead]

Sanders is getting close to 20, has he hit that before?