Miles' Election Map Thread

[Seattle]

What's up with the huge swing in that one western/Tennessee border precinct?

[Miles]

What's up with the huge swing in that one western/Tennessee border precinct?

Very few votes (less than 25) were cast in the precinct during either election.

[Brittain33]

I was surprised that parts of central Appalachia cast more votes in 2012; I just thought lots of Democrats that didn't like Obama stayed home.

Must have been a switch from Dems staying home in 2008 to actively voting against Obama because of coal.

[Miles]

This was one of the (increasingly rare) races where Wake was more Democratic than Mecklenburg, mostly due to Goldman's tumultuous tenure on the Wake County School Board.

[Miles]

I've been sitting on this map for a few weeks now and just getting around to posting it.

2004-2012 Trend

[windjammer]

As the expert of redistricting of this forum, do you think you would manage to delete most of the majority minority districts in South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and Texas?

[Miles]

As the expert of redistricting of this forum, do you think you would manage to delete most of the majority minority districts in South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia and Texas?

Delete them? How so?

[windjammer]

Because the Voting Rights Act was partially declared invalid, so I suppose the republicans can delete the majority minority district now?

[Miles]

Because the Voting Rights Act was partially declared invalid, so I suppose the republicans can delete the majority minority district now?

No, as that would violate Section II.

[windjammer]

Thank you! So what does it change?

[Miles]

Thank you! So what does it change?

The states aren't obligated to send their draft maps to the DOJ for preclearance.

[Mr.Phips]

Because the Voting Rights Act was partially declared invalid, so I suppose the republicans can delete the majority minority district now?

No, as that would violate Section II.

And additionally, Republicans like those majority minority districts because they keep minority voters out of what would be marginal adjacent districts.

[JacobNC]

A PPP poll this week had Democrats leading the generic legislative ballot by seven points, and that got me thinking.  By how much would Dems have to win the generic ballot to flip one of the chambers (the Senate looks closer).

The Republicans really did do a good job with their gerrymander, however there are a lot of seats that might not be as Republican as they look on paper.  Take the 2012 Secretary of State race which Elaine Marshall (D) won 53.8-46.2, or 7.5 points - by my estimation she won several Republican-held Senate districts:

- Meridith (Cumberland)
- Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Rabin (Lee/Harnett/Johnston)
- Barefoot (Wake/Franklin)
- Hunt (Wake)

Then there are a couple of other Senate districts where she probably came pretty close to winning:

- Barringer (Wake)
- Jackson (Johnston/Sampson/Duplin)

Now consider a few more districts Marshall did not come close to winning but are winnable for Democrats on the state legislative level:

- Cook (Beaufort/Hyde/Dare/Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Perquimans/Gates)
- Davis (Cherokee/Clay/Graham/Macon/Swain/Jackson/Haywood)
- Newton (Nash/Wilson/Johnston)
- Hise (Rutherford/Polk/McDowell/Mitchell/Yancey/Madison)

Democrats would need to win nine seats to take control.  That seems like a tall order, something more reachable would be winning four seats to break the GOP's veto-proof majority in the Senate.  Then Pat McCrory would be forced to take ownership of what they pass.  In hindsight it would have been really helpful if Coleman could have eeked out a win in the Lt. Gov. race.

[Mr.Phips]

A PPP poll this week had Democrats leading the generic legislative ballot by seven points, and that got me thinking.  By how much would Dems have to win the generic ballot to flip one of the chambers (the Senate looks closer).

The Republicans really did do a good job with their gerrymander, however there are a lot of seats that might not be as Republican as they look on paper.  Take the 2012 Secretary of State race which Elaine Marshall (D) won 53.8-46.2, or 7.5 points - by my estimation she won several Republican-held Senate districts:

- Meridith (Cumberland)
- Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Rabin (Lee/Harnett/Johnston)
- Barefoot (Wake/Franklin)
- Hunt (Wake)

Then there are a couple of other Senate districts where she probably came pretty close to winning:

- Barringer (Wake)
- Jackson (Johnston/Sampson/Duplin)

Now consider a few more districts Marshall did not come close to winning but are winnable for Democrats on the state legislative level:

- Cook (Beaufort/Hyde/Dare/Currituck/Camden/Pasquotank/Perquimans/Gates)
- Davis (Cherokee/Clay/Graham/Macon/Swain/Jackson/Haywood)
- Newton (Nash/Wilson/Johnston)
- Hise (Rutherford/Polk/McDowell/Mitchell/Yancey/Madison)

Democrats would need to win nine seats to take control.  That seems like a tall order, something more reachable would be winning four seats to break the GOP's veto-proof majority in the Senate.  Then Pat McCrory would be forced to take ownership of what they pass.  In hindsight it would have been really helpful if Coleman could have eeked out a win in the Lt. Gov. race.

By looking at the seats, it would seem that Merideth(Cumberland county) should be pretty low hanging fruit.  It's almost impossible to draw a seat wholly in that county that's any worse for Democrats than a toss up.  The New Hanover and Wake county seats should also be very good opportunities as the latter only continues to get more Dem. 

Those other seats that touch Johnston county and include a lot of fast trending GOP areas seem like a bridge too far.

[JacobNC]

Those other seats that touch Johnston county and include a lot of fast trending GOP areas seem like a bridge too far.

That's true but Republican Ronald Rabin only won the Lee/Harnett/Johnston seat 51-49 despite his name rhyming with Republican Jesus.  He underperformed Mitt Romney very badly so Dems should definitely target that seat in 2014.

[Miles]

Those other seats that touch Johnston county and include a lot of fast trending GOP areas seem like a bridge too far.

That's true but Republican Ronald Rabin only won the Lee/Harnett/Johnston seat 51-49 despite his name rhyming with Republican Jesus.  He underperformed Mitt Romney very badly so Dems should definitely target that seat in 2014.

I think for that district a Presidential electorate would be needed, but it should at least be on watch.

[Mr.Phips]

Those other seats that touch Johnston county and include a lot of fast trending GOP areas seem like a bridge too far.

That's true but Republican Ronald Rabin only won the Lee/Harnett/Johnston seat 51-49 despite his name rhyming with Republican Jesus.  He underperformed Mitt Romney very badly so Dems should definitely target that seat in 2014.

I think for that district a Presidential electorate would be needed, but it should at least be on watch.

I would think that a district with Johnson county would be better for Dems in an off year.

[Miles]

[Miles]

Some exciting news! Today I was at Senator Hagan's office for breakfast. I thought it would be neat if I printed up a copy of my 2008 Senate map to bring to her. I brought three copies; I gave one to Senator Hagan and she signed the other two for me!



Yes, I had to flip the colors, as the Atlas scheme would have confused her!

[JerryArkansas]

Some exciting news! Today I was at Senator Hagan's office for breakfast. I thought it would be neat if I printed up a copy of my 2008 Senate map to bring to her. I brought three copies; I gave one to Senator Hagan and she signed the other two for me!



Yes, I had to flip the colors, as the Atlas scheme would have confused her!

That's awsome Miles , wish I could meet her and other senators.

[Miles]

That's awsome Miles , wish I could meet her and other senators.

I passed by Mark Pryor's office when I was walking around. It was a neat trip. I stopped in and saw David Vitter and then Kay Hagan. When I was walking around the Hart building, I saw Al Franken and Mark Kirk talking with their of consituents.

I'm trying to schedule a meeting with Mary Landrieu...I met with her two years ago, but I never got the pic from it

[JerryArkansas]

That's awsome Miles , wish I could meet her and other senators.

I passed by Mark Pryor's office when I was walking around. It was a neat trip. I stopped in and saw David Vitter and then Kay Hagan. When I was walking around the Hart building, I saw Al Franken and Mark Kirk talking with their of consituents.

I'm trying to schedule a meeting with Mary Landrieu...I met with her two years ago, but I never got the pic from it

In the Summer of 2015 when i go to Washington,  I'm going to try and get a meeting with both arkansas senators, Claire, and a few others that I really like.  My dream is to meet dianne Feinstein

[minionofmidas]

The lovechild of Tom Hagen and Kay Corleone should have been able to deal with Atlas colours.

[Miles]

Senator Hagan when I showed her the map:

[JerryArkansas]

Senator Hagan when I showed her the map:

I love her face in that pic.