When will Puerto Rico take part in the presidential election?

[Unimog]

What do you think, when will purto rico gain statehood and take part in general elections.

My guess is, they might gain statehood in 2018 an take part in the general elections in 2020.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As soon as possible!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2020 is likely the earliest, and that assumes they approve statehood when offered it in a simple up or down vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

Heavier income taxes, less autonomy? I agree with what you're saying, but their is a definitive reason.

What autonomy does PR have that they would lose by being a State?

[politicus]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

Statehood would definitely preclude independence since secession is not allowed and de facto make it very hard to regain any former autonomous status - generally where is no going back once you are in a federation even if it could theoretically happen.

[Benj]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

Statehood would definitely preclude independence since secession is not allowed and de facto make it very hard to regain any former autonomous status - generally where is no going back once you are in a federation even if it could theoretically happen.

Yeah, but no one in Puerto Rico wants independence anyway.

While it is true that Puerto Rico would be subject to US taxes on statehood, it would almost certainly be the number one state getting more money than it gives from the federal government.

[minionofmidas]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

Just highlighting the problematic bit. The country is still Puerto Rico now, and would not be after statehood in any meaningful way. Not everybody in Hawaii is entirely happy with statehood, either.

[politicus]

I don't understand how any Puertorican could oppose statehood. Sure, you might prefer independence, free association or whatever, but if you have an opportunity to at least have a voice in the country's institutions, why turn it down? It's not like statehood would preclude other solutions in the future.

Statehood would definitely preclude independence since secession is not allowed and de facto make it very hard to regain any former autonomous status - generally where is no going back once you are in a federation even if it could theoretically happen.

Yeah, but no one in Puerto Rico wants independence anyway.

While it is true that Puerto Rico would be subject to US taxes on statehood, it would almost certainly be the number one state getting more money than it gives from the federal government.

Only 4% in the last poll I saw, but free association status might be another matter.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For an example of Lewis said, Puerto Rico has its own Olympic team now. That'd change after statehood of course.

[Simfan34]

For an example of Lewis said, Puerto Rico has its own Olympic team now. That'd change after statehood of course.

But what does that matter? You and Lewis seem to be insisting that they'd have reservations about statehood despite voting for it. If they valued their independence so much, they would have voted for independence, and that would have been fine. But they voted one way, and there's no use in going on about a minority that goes the other way.

Not everybody in Hawaii is entirely happy with statehood, either.

And how much is "not everybody"? Are the Filipinos and Japanese, the two largest ethnic groups in the state, part of "not everybody? We may take the step of assuming that Native Hawaiians might "want their country back" but the fact is that they constituted barely one in ten of Hawaiians, and chances are most of them enjoy being Americans.

Considering that Puerto Rico made the odd choice of voting for statehood and yet voting for an anti-statehood governor, it's highly improbable that the government would make any formal move to apply. If statehood is to occur, what will probably have to happen is that another referendum will need to be held in 2016 and get a majority, plus a PPP governor will need to be elected, then I think that Puerto Rico can be granted statehood no later than 2020.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

[Simfan34]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

[Blackacre]

Hopefully, they'll participate in the 2016 election

[politicus]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

The issue doesn't seem to get polled much. In 2009 22% of Hawaiians said they didn't think the country should join the US if it was still independent, but that is of course a different matter.
But I do believe its more than 4% thats pro-independence.

Anyway, Hawaii and Puerto Rico is in totally different situations. Since Puerto Ricans is one people and completely dominate their island, whereas Hawaii is a multiethnic society where the indigenous population is marginalized. So its a pretty useless comparison.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

It's way bigger than 4%.  It's just that they have absolutely no political power.  The governor is a white guy, both our senators are japanese and our congresswomen are japanese (Hanabusa) and 3/4ths white, 1/4th Samoan (Gabbard).  Akaka was part Hawaiian and he had tried to pass some racist legislation against non-natives in the Senate but he didn't have enough support.  Unfortunately native Hawaiians have by far the highest illiteracy, obesity and incarceration rates in the state and they have a lot of anger towards whites (or haole), but not so much against asians.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For an example of Lewis said, Puerto Rico has its own Olympic team now. That'd change after statehood of course.

But what does that matter? You and Lewis seem to be insisting that they'd have reservations about statehood despite voting for it.

Except they never have.  The referendum was carefully arranged to make it look like they did, but they didn't.  They were asked two questions, the first being, do they want some change in their status and the second being if the status was going to be changed, which status do you want it to be changed to.  Yeah, a majority answered they wanted a change and a majority answered that if there was a change they would want it to be to statehood, but that does not mean that if presented with a straight up and down vote on whether they want statehood or to keep things as they are, that statehood would win.

That is why 2020 is the earliest we'll see Puerto Rico voting in a Presidential election.  There will need to be such a straight up and down vote before Congress will ever consider offering Puerto Rico statehood.  The soonest I see a 51st star being added to the flag is 4 July 2019, after a 2014 straight referendum on statehood, a 2016 election for a convention to draft a state constitution, and a 2018 vote to adopt the constitution.  (And at the same time hold elections for 2 Senators and 5 Representatives who would take office if the constitution were adopted.  Puerto Rico would gain a Class 1 Senate seat which would be elected to a full term in 2018 and a Class 2 Senate seat which would be elected to a two year term in 2018.  Incidentally, if they follow precedent, then in the first election, Puerto Rico will be voting for a Seat A and a Seat B and which is which class would be determined by lot when the new Senators are sworn in.)

[politicus]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

It's way bigger than 4%.  It's just that they have absolutely no political power.  The governor is a white guy, both our senators are Japanese and our congresswomen are Japanese (Hanabusa) and 3/4ths white, 1/4th Samoan (Gabbard).  Akaka was part Hawaiian and he had tried to pass some racist legislation against non-natives in the Senate but he didn't have enough support.  Unfortunately native Hawaiians have by far the highest illiteracy, obesity and incarceration rates in the state and they have a lot of anger towards whites (or haole), but not so much against Asians.

The purpose of the Akaka Bill was to get Native Hawaiians recognized as a First Nation in the same way Native Americans are, which cant be considered racist given that they are the indigenous population on the islands.
It was actually opposed quite strongly by the Hawaiian independence movemet, which saw it as a wishy-washy compromise undermining their claim to full sovereignty based on the assertion that the 1893 planters revolution (which overthrew the monarchy) was illegal.

I am surprised you are not on the side of the Monarchists in Hawaii, Simfan. I thought you prefered monarchies to republics

[Simfan34]

For an example of Lewis said, Puerto Rico has its own Olympic team now. That'd change after statehood of course.

But what does that matter? You and Lewis seem to be insisting that they'd have reservations about statehood despite voting for it.

Except they never have.  The referendum was carefully arranged to make it look like they did, but they didn't.  They were asked two questions, the first being, do they want some change in their status and the second being if the status was going to be changed, which status do you want it to be changed to.  Yeah, a majority answered they wanted a change and a majority answered that if there was a change they would want it to be to statehood, but that does not mean that if presented with a straight up and down vote on whether they want statehood or to keep things as they are, that statehood would win.

That is why 2020 is the earliest we'll see Puerto Rico voting in a Presidential election.  There will need to be such a straight up and down vote before Congress will ever consider offering Puerto Rico statehood.  The soonest I see a 51st star being added to the flag is 4 July 2019, after a 2014 straight referendum on statehood, a 2016 election for a convention to draft a state constitution, and a 2018 vote to adopt the constitution.  (And at the same time hold elections for 2 Senators and 5 Representatives who would take office if the constitution were adopted.  Puerto Rico would gain a Class 1 Senate seat which would be elected to a full term in 2018 and a Class 2 Senate seat which would be elected to a two year term in 2018.  Incidentally, if they follow precedent, then in the first election, Puerto Rico will be voting for a Seat A and a Seat B and which is which class would be determined by lot when the new Senators are sworn in.)

I agree with you entirely, and I pretty much said what you have in my prior post. What I'm saying is that the results of these referenda show that the number Puerto Ricans clamouring for independence is virtually negligible and resisting statehood on those grounds is illogical. 

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

I am surprised you are not on the side of the Monarchists in Hawaii, Simfan. I thought you prefered monarchies to republics

I've decided to drop that act. I'm for the preservation and even restoration of monarchies abroad- a fairly reasonable traditionalist viewpoint, I would say- but not an American monarchy, no.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Actually many Native Hawaiians are for independence.  You have no idea how many times I have been called a "f****n haole" or told to "gtfo and go back to where I came from" by losers with XXXXL "Defend Hawaii" t-shirts.

But what percentage of the population is that? I wish that 4% good luck in expelling the other 90%.

I am surprised you are not on the side of the Monarchists in Hawaii, Simfan. I thought you prefered monarchies to republics

I've decided to drop that act. I'm for the preservation and even restoration of monarchies abroad- a fairly reasonable traditionalist viewpoint, I would say- but not an American monarchy, no.

The Hawaiian monarchy was a traditionalist monarchy abroad, though, and presumably would be again were it to be restored.

[izixs]

Hold up folks, why is this thread about Puerto Rico being dominated by talk of Hawaii? And why is the thread title misspelled?

More seriously though, the anti-state folks can split hairs all they like, but the writing is on the wall that Puerto Rico wants to get going on this and I suspect the statehood push will only get stronger with time. The question is more one of at what speed with congress act once things start getting official? I suspect it will be pretty slow unless the GOP decides that Puerto Rico statehood is their best way to get back on the good side with Latinos without actually changing their fundamental ideas that tend to cause their problems with the community.

[politicus]

the anti-state folks can split hairs all they like, but the writing is on the wall that Puerto Rico wants to get going on this and I suspect the statehood push will only get stronger with time.

About 40% of Puerto Rico wants this, and about 40% is against it. The question is if the opposing half mobilizes effectively against statehood and who will win over the undecided.
With the current governor on their side I would say the anti-statehood side has the advantage right now.

[izixs]

the anti-state folks can split hairs all they like, but the writing is on the wall that Puerto Rico wants to get going on this and I suspect the statehood push will only get stronger with time.

About 40% of Puerto Rico wants this, and about 40% is against it. The question is if the opposing half mobilizes effectively against statehood and who will win over the undecided.
With the current governor on their side I would say the anti-statehood side has the advantage right now.

The 2012 referendum had more people voting for statehood (on question 2 at ~824k votes) than voting to maintain status (on question 1 at ~817k votes). The vote on question 1 alone should be enough for a straight up clean vote on statehood and I'm confident the pro-statehood folks would run away with it given the lopsided margin on question 2. The status quo is not agreeable to most Puerto Ricans, and they seem to like statehood as the best alternative.

As is, the games being played with these referendums with the variety of options is just delaying things and not actually giving voice to the desire of Puerto Rico for change. As for the 'anti-statehood' governor, I'd be surprised if his support came only from those against statehood and not other issues that matter to Puerto Rico. Not everyone is a single issue voter. So citing that election result is a distraction and not proof of the 'split electorate' conjecture.

But you can go and believe what ever you like. I'm going to stick with an evidence based reality though.

I'm also confused why some folks are so anti-statehood on the forum here (and in other places of the internet). Isn't giving voice to people in their own government a good thing?

[politicus]

the anti-state folks can split hairs all they like, but the writing is on the wall that Puerto Rico wants to get going on this and I suspect the statehood push will only get stronger with time.

About 40% of Puerto Rico wants this, and about 40% is against it. The question is if the opposing half mobilizes effectively against statehood and who will win over the undecided.
With the current governor on their side I would say the anti-statehood side has the advantage right now.

The 2012 referendum had more people voting for statehood (on question 2 at ~824k votes) than voting to maintain status (on question 1 at ~817k votes). The vote on question 1 alone should be enough for a straight up clean vote on statehood and I'm confident the pro-statehood folks would run away with it given the lopsided margin on question 2. The status quo is not agreeable to most Puerto Ricans, and they seem to like statehood as the best alternative.

As is, the games being played with these referendums with the variety of options is just delaying things and not actually giving voice to the desire of Puerto Rico for change. As for the 'anti-statehood' governor, I'd be surprised if his support came only from those against statehood and not other issues that matter to Puerto Rico. Not everyone is a single issue voter. So citing that election result is a distraction and not proof of the 'split electorate' conjecture.

But you can go and believe what ever you like. I'm going to stick with an evidence based reality though.

I'm also confused why some folks are so anti-statehood on the forum here (and in other places of the internet). Isn't giving voice to people in their own government a good thing?

First, I am not anti-statehood.

Second, drop the attitude, you are much too arrogant.

Third, the referendum was about even (824k to 817k is a very small difference) and more people will vote in a real statehood referendum. There was a poll in November on this issue showing 20% undecided and a number of them will vote in a straight yes/no to statehood referendum with consequences for the future of their country.
So this issue is far from settled.

I agree that people didn't vote for the governor based on statehood, but that's not the point. What matters is that he will be in office and be able to influence the process and that gives the anti-statehood side an edge.

[minionofmidas]

For an example of Lewis said, Puerto Rico has its own Olympic team now. That'd change after statehood of course.

But what does that matter? You and Lewis seem to be insisting that they'd have reservations about statehood despite voting for it.

Who says everybody has reservations about statehood? The issue has become partisan in Puerto Rico - over half a century ago - yes in this vote statehood very narrowly* won while the statehood-supporting party was swept from office; this is unlike past referenda where statehood lost. So clearly there's a degree of increasing support for statehood. What I'm going on about is explaining the logic behind the widespread reservations about statehood; these are shared by very many who believe that sovereignty is not a viable option and are therefore not voting for Independence (and yes, presumably by very many who voted for statehood as well, as the least bad option since the status quo is far from ideal either.) Puerto Rico is not some territory on the American frontier settled by Americans, and should not be treated as such. It's not culturally or geographically a part of the US of A and statehood should not be rammed down the throats of half the country. I'm saying this as someone who, were I Puertorican, would probably be a "practical" vote for statehood.

*if you compare the two meaningful figures

The vote on question 1 alone should be enough for a straight up clean vote on statehood and I'm confident the pro-statehood folks would run away with it given the lopsided margin on question 2.

I... I... I didn't know it was possible to spin this fast. The "lopsided margin" is the result of status quo supporters splitting between the "status quo under another name" option and spoiling their ballots.


In practical terms, the answer is probably as soon as there's a PNP Governor and a Democratic US Government again (Republicans officially support PR statehood too but I can't help but feel there's a reason why all four previous referenda have occurred under this combination), they'll try again and have a good rhetorical weapon in this vote's result.