OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread... (user search)
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  OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread... (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...  (Read 28802 times)
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« on: August 01, 2005, 04:53:39 PM »
This is going to be a very close race either way.  Hackett is a strong candidate who has run a good campaign.

I think it will be within 4-5 points no matter who wins. I won't make a prediction.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2005, 06:58:55 PM »

Alright!

Hackett by 1.5%!! I'll be the optimist today.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2005, 07:00:07 PM »
Quote from: Attorney General Al on August 01, 2005, 06:21:26 PM
There's too much money in US Politics right now... what are the total fundraising figures for both candidates?

The majority of Hackett money is from small donor individuals. That's a good thing. That's how democracy should be.

The vast majority of Schmidt money is from corporate PACs and the RNC.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2005, 07:13:58 PM »

Tomorrow. Where you been?
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2005, 07:29:40 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on August 01, 2005, 07:19:35 PM
I'm really surprised at the total lack of polling data.  Looks like the polling organizations are either too lazy to bother themselves with a congressional special election, or are already seeing it as decided in Schmidt's favor.

Excuse my ignorance, but aren't the polling organizations hired by the campaigns? I don't think Hackett's campaign wanted to waste unneccessary money to get poll results.

And I think Schmidt's campaign DID some polling but didn't release the results to the public. Supposedly the results indicated a tight race and that's why the RNC recently kicked in $500,000 for TV ads.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2005, 08:10:19 PM »
Quote from: Jake on August 01, 2005, 07:46:24 PM
Now that the money is in, the race is finished.

The more the voters see Schmidt, the less they'll like her. She is not a likeable candidate.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2005, 11:08:25 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on August 01, 2005, 11:38:07 PM
I went to Hackett's website and decided to check out the photo gallery. I love it. If a Republican was to put up pictures of him/herself serving in Iraq, it would be using it for political gain/exploiting his fellow servicemen but that's all we see on most of Hackett's page.

I would applaud any Republican serving in Iraq.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2005, 12:15:26 PM »
Quote from: AuH2O on August 02, 2005, 11:51:30 AM
Right now the bloggers are furiously lowering the bar for "victory," kos is saying something like a 20 point loss for Hackett means the GOP is doomed???

Wrong. I believe he said within 10 points is a victory for Democrats.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2005, 04:19:41 PM »

Supposedly pretty good. A little better than expected.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2005, 05:48:43 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on August 02, 2005, 04:46:10 PM
Word on the street is that turnout is quite a lot higher, and in Hackett's favor.  But that 'source' is a Cincy Democrat friend of mine, so I wouldn't read into it all that much.

I just read on DKos that turnout will likely be between 15%-20%, which is probably a good thing for Hackett.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2005, 05:53:02 PM »
Quote from: Jake on August 02, 2005, 05:50:00 PM
Hahaha, no. Dems here were calling for 35-40% turnout figures.

Where did you see that?

Quote from: Jake on August 02, 2005, 05:50:00 PM
Hackett has zero chance to win with 15-20% turnout.

The lower the turnout the better. Hackett needs a lot of Republicans to stay home. No one expects him to win this race, but low turnout favors him more than Schmidt.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2005, 06:18:50 PM »

OK, you said "Dems". There was only one. You should have just said DeFarge.  No one following this race closely would have predicted that high of a turnout.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2005, 07:34:33 PM »
I am expecting a very tight Schmidt win.

I really hope I'm wrong.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2005, 07:50:18 PM »
Hackett is kicking Schmidt butt in ultra-conservative Brown County and easily outperforming Kerry in ultra-conservative Hamilton County.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2005, 07:51:30 PM »
175 of 753 precincts reporting:

Hackett 51%
Schmidt 49%
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2005, 07:53:20 PM »
http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2005, 08:12:15 PM »
259 of 753 precincts reporting

Hackett   52.18%
Schmidt   47.81%

This one is going right down to the wire. Schmidt needs to win big in Clermont.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2005, 08:15:32 PM »
Schmidt is probably going to win this right at the end.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2005, 08:17:28 PM »
Hackett has already done way better than anyone expected and still has a chance to pull this one out.

I believe he is winning in Hamilton County.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2005, 08:26:19 PM »
409 of 753 precincts reporting:

Hackett 50.45%
Schmidt 49.54%

Hackett up by 546 votes.

Looks like Schmidt will end up winning in a squeeker.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2005, 08:32:37 PM »
Hackett is close to done.

Absolutely great showing thus far, though.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2005, 08:34:49 PM »
Turnout was higher than expected, not a good sign for Hackett.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2005, 08:46:04 PM »
Hackett has done awesome.

He'll end up losing by only 1,500-2,000 votes.

The last republican Congressman consistently got over 70% of the vote.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2005, 08:52:08 PM »
Isn't this the most conservative district in Ohio?

This was great to make it this close. Too bad we couldn't run Paul Hackett against Deborah Pryce in OH-15 next year.

Almost any other district in Ohio and Hackett wins.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72
« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2005, 08:52:46 PM »
Hackett currently down by only 800 votes but only Clermont still has results to report.

Hackett kicked ass in the small counties.
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