Let the great boundary rejig commence

[minionofmidas]

Ah, I've missed out Wyre and Preston North, so that's 12 with 3 bits left to play with

Ah, you also list a Chorley. And since one ward (which I assumed to mean Lostock) is in your undersized South Ribble already, Chorley is just 67,806.

[minionofmidas]

Rossendale & Darwen is a legal population currently; seems a waste to throw it away. My first idea (before even noticing it was legal already, lol) was to add the two Rossendale wards currently in Hyndburn constituency and maybe drop that one Blackburn with Darwen ward that looks from the overview map like it belongs with Blackburn, not Darwen. This is still legal - and makes Blackburn legal, too!
Alas, that one ward only looks like that from the overview map; that area is Lower Darwen (though it has a different name as a ward). And further, that leaves 35,051 people on the western side of Hyndburn locked off.
So no go that way, then.

I have Chorley at 76,046 - using December figures?

Yes, but the error was mine. I accidentally subtracted from the constituency rather than the borough figure.

Incidentally... Rossendale & the Hyndburn remnants is also a legal district, at 78,611.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, and you already have a proposal for Lancashire of course...
Accrington and Blackburn North 77,911 (this is the 'bits and pieces' seat as Padiham is in there too)
Blackburn and Darwen 76,800
Blackpool North and Fleetwood 78,166
Blackpool South 74,144
Bootle 71,995 (unchanged, but I'll probably throw half a Liverpool ward in there at some point)
Burnley and Nelson 76,611
Chorley and Bamber Bridge 78,501 (also has a rural ward from Blackburn)
Colne and Clitheroe 78,171
Fylde 78,706 (expands north of Preston)
Lancaster and Morecambe 78,808
Preston 77,401 (all the urban wards except Ingol)
Rossendale and Oswaldtwistle 76,104
Sefton Central 77,202 (now includes the countryside west of Ormskirk)
South Ribble 79,239 (Penwortham, Leyland and Euxton)
Southport 78,531 (goes east to the River Douglas)
West Lancashire 77,504 (expands northeast as far as Coppull).
Wyre and Lunesdale 75,930

The rest of the NW will be more difficult.  Cumbria comes to 5.16 seats so it can have five seats of its own. The Wirral comes to 3.18 seats so it'll have to be moved in with Cheshire, but that leaves 25.57 seats for Greater Manchester, 13.52 seats for Cheshire + Wirral and 7.48 seats for Liverpool, Knowsley and St Helens (which is impossible with a 5% tolerance).  

(...)
The only real problem with those proposals now is that Bootle is too small, so I'll have to throw half a Liverpool ward in.  Liverpool is something like 4.18 quotas so something has to give anyway.

Cheshire/Wirral will have to be paired with Shropshire (I hate it but... there is nothing else that could possibly be done about Shropshire.)
You could pair Saint Helens with Wigan I guess... could you write this thingy up in a detailed format? Oh, and see if you can't throw a ward or half-a-ward to Bootle to the northward.

EDIT: Actually, I know just the area. The Molyneux ward is a rotten disgrace, consisting of a bit of Ragnull, a bit of Kirkby, all of Netherton which is built-up continuously to Liverpool through Litherland and Bootle, and empty land in between the three and to the north. So Netherton would go into Bootle, the rest would not.

[minionofmidas]

I will look at this today. What's the figures for the borough of Blackburn with Darwen? If I can combine Rossendale with the  bits of Hyndburn left over, and create two seats out of BwD, I won't have to move into Gtr Manchester at all....

No. In and of itself Blackburn is not of an awkward size or shape at all - it's just in an awkward part of the map. If you combine Rossendale with the bits of Hyndburn, you're pretty likely to be also drawing a very pretty Blackburn constituency and then the thing that Andrew screamed in bold caps about recently because no way does he want his town associated with Darreners.

Or you could try some Blackburn S & Darwen / Blackburn N & Northern Parts of Chorley (but not all of them; your South Ribble is too small) / Westhoughton Blast from the Past.

Or you rework areas wholly elsewhere extensively.

[minionofmidas]

Basically it's a shame to split Blackburn, but if it is understood that Blackburn is really the only place Darwen could possibly be linked to, that will force it. Which is probably how Rossendale & Darwen came about - well that, and at the time it made the map work elsewhere (Hyndburn, Burnley, Pendle) work too. And that second argument is now gone, so fire away. Split Blackburn for all I care.

[minionofmidas]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Highland is 30,600 square km... or about 30,000 without Nairn. Too large to be two seats.
The clause is so precise that I think it was probably formulated with a specific setup in mind that alone (with minor alterations) satisfies it, possibly the current one.

[minionofmidas]

I am sorry, the ~half of Molyneux Ward (far larger than the Maghull part) that is mismatched with Sefton Central and geographically "belongs" in Bootle is not Netherton, which is indeed in Bootle already, but its eastern neighbor of Aintree.

[minionofmidas]

Got the figures for the North of Scotland

Highland/Moray 3.18 or 3- Just a tad over the quota, but geography makes other groupings different. If accepted this would give a Moray and Nairn, and a 'north' and 'south' Highland seat...but it all depends on the geography given the clause in the bill.

Highland is 30,600 square km... or about 30,000 without Nairn. Too large to be two seats.
The clause is so precise that I think it was probably formulated with a specific setup in mind that alone (with minor alterations) satisfies it, possibly the current one.

"No constituencies with an area of more than 13000 km^2.  Constituencies with an area of more than 12000 km^2 are allowed to be more than 5% below quota."

Doesn't give a figure on how far below quota a seat between 12,000 and 13,000 can go (or maybe the law does but the blurb Doktorb quoted doesn't). I can't find totals by area for constituencies... but judging by the look of the Highland map that sounds about right for the two non-Inverness seats.

[minionofmidas]

Finishing the East Midlands

Derbyshire 10 (-1)

Leicestershire 10 (no change, but expanded Leicester seats)

Northamptonshire + Milton Keynes 9 (-1, odd grouping but both need a partner and anyways the area between Northampton and MK is London Commuterland really)


This is approximately based on 97-10, when the county also had 10 seats, though some constituencies had to be shifted somewhat. Not in Derby, though.
Chesterfield 72,077
I ended up leaving this unchanged because I couldn't decide which one of the two city wards currently not in should be included (the whole borough is too large), and the way I worked it out elsewhere it happened to fit this way.
North East Derybshire 77,550
gains the wards of Sutton and Holmewood & Heath, just south of Chesterfield, from Bolsover.
Bolsover 78,028
The other seat (besides Chesterfield) to currently have a legal population, this one was nonetheless redrawn. Loses Sutton and Holmewood & Heath; gains Alfreton and Somercotes from Amber Valley
High Peak 78,021
Gains Bradwell, Hathersage & Eyam and Tideswell - ie minimum change compared to the 97-10 map.
Derbyshire Dales 78,585
Loses these but gains back all of Belper. Throw in Duffield and this too is minimum change compared to 97-10... but that makes problems elsewhere (Amber Valley and/or Erewash have to migrate too far southwards or into the city) so instead I added the North West and Hatton wards from South Derbyshire.
Amber Valley 77,060
Loses Alfreton and Somercotes, gains Duffield, Little Eaton & Bradsall, and (I know, I know) the Derby ward of Oakwood
Erewash 79,226
Gains Ockbrook & Borrowash, West Hallam & Dale Abbey
Derby North West 72,246
Compared to North, gains Allestree, loses Chaddesden
Derby South East 79,634
Compared to South, gains Chaddesden, Spondon, loses Chellaston which used to be in South Derbyshire til 2010.
I had S gain Spondon, lose Chellaston and N gain Allestree and was looking for which ward to split... when I noticed that Chaddesden could be transferred whole and save me the split.
Derbyshire South 77,878
Gains back Chellaston (but not Boulton which used to be here as well), loses two westernmost wards of North West and Hatton.

[minionofmidas]

Two constituencies in Leicestershire are too small, and none are too large. I recommend no changes to Leicester East 73,320, Leicester South 77,156, Rutland & Melton 77,096, Charnwood 74,734 or Loughborough 77,464 - though in the case of the latter two, I had at first intended to.
Leicestershire North West 75,760 gains the Markfield, Stanton & Fieldhead ward from Bosworth 72,699.
Leicester West 72,479 gains the Ravenhurst & Fosse and Millfield wards from South Leicestershire. I had at first intended to also add Winstanley, but it creates problems down the line.

And then I have two maps for the remaining territory. The minor change one:
Leicestershire South 73,360
Loses Ravenhurst & Fosse, Millfield; gains Bosworth, Lubenham (confusingly, there are two places called Bosworth in Leicestershire)
Harborough 74,375
Loses Bosworth, Lubenham.

But those two city line to county line constituencies are walking abortions anyways, and with these losses the misnamed Harborough (it's dominated by the northern, suburban part, not by Market Harborough) gets ever narrower.
Blaby, Oadby & Wigston 73,360
The Oadby & Wigston district from the Harborough constituency, and the Blaby district parts of South Leicestershire, excluding Ravenhurst & Fosse, Millfield (which are of course in Leicester West) and the five relatively rural wards of Countesthorpe, Cosby with South Whetstone, Stanton & Flamville, Croft Hill, and Normanton. The way it reaches around Leicester to include Winstanley is somewhat ugly, and a better map could probably be devised, but only by breaching the city line in a second place.
Harborough 73,257
The five wards listed above and all of Harborough district except the parts in Rutland & Melton.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, of course Northamptonshire + MK is not a seat loss at all.

Corby 78,275 and Wellingborough 76,797 are left unchanged.

Kettering 73,336 gains the wards along the A14 - Clipston, Welford, and Yelvertoft.
In exchange, Daventry 74,737 gets the wards of Danvers & Wardoun, Middleton Cheney and Kings Sutton to the south. While it doesn't affect any of these wards, compared to the Atlas, South Northamptonshire district has been rewarded - and this was done so early that the constituency boundary was amended as well. Compared to what's shown in the Atlas, Cote ward is in South Northamptonshire but Milton Malbor parish is in Daventry. I'm not proposing to change the boundary in that area.

Northampton North 73,362 gains Billing, Ecton Brook, and Weston, but loses Delapre for a smoother outline.
Northampton South 74,198 is all the remainder of the town including the wards currently in South Northamptonshire.

Milton Keynes South 73,653 cedes Walton Park and Danesborough.
Milton Keynes North 73,569 gains these but cedes the two Newport Pagnell wards, Sherington and Olney.

That leaves us with Northamptonshire South & Newport Pagnell 73,085 current Northamptonshire South minus Northampton town areas, Danvers & Wardoun, Middleton Cheney and Kings Sutton, plus the abovementioned portion of MK. Map would look smoother if Hanslope Park could also be included here, but that takes the MK seats below target (unless you split Newport Pagnell instead.)

[minionofmidas]

Corby has no community of interest with east Northants. Is there any way it could be paired in the other direction, or do the figures not allow for that?

I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure a Corby & Kettering seat is too large no matter how tightly drawn and the donut around it would be ugly. One could check if it's possible to exchange the whole of Corby proper for the whole of Kettering proper... but wouldn't that lead to just the same complaint?
"East Northamptonshire has to go somewhere" being the crux of the argument, though yes, it's possible that it's possible.

[minionofmidas]

I suggest that we just deport all the rich idiots from the Home Counties who have been ruining Northants for decades back to where they came from. That's what my late Grandma would have argued for, anyway.

But, yeah, any constituency would be ugly. But as ugly as the current one?

Possibly worse.

Corby + anything in Kettering borough west of Kettering proper (Desborough etc) + those three Daventry wards listed above + the fairly empty northernmore bits of East Northants to just north of Oundle (73,031) vs
Kettering proper + the central and south central bits of East Northants from Irthlingborough north to Oundle (78,580)?

[minionofmidas]

I'd rename a few of these seats. And maybe replace those two urban Wyre wards with rural Fylde ones. I think Blackpool N can take one of them, too.
Darwen, Egerton and Pleasington   Darwen, Turton & Blackburn West
Chorley and Wrightington
Blackburn and Rishton Blackburn East & Oswaldtwistle (or incorporating two place names in Hyndburn - BE, O & either Rishton or Clayton-le-Moors)
Preston South & Bamber Bridge
Wyre and Preston North (is barely retainable with the current map, although it's still better to rotate them round. If those last two urban Wyre precincts go out, though, as I think they should...)

Now all that remains to be done is amend Andrew's Greater Manchester map to accomodate the ward losses and drop one seat.

[minionofmidas]

I'd rename a few of these seats. And maybe replace those two urban Wyre wards with rural Fylde ones. I think Blackpool N can take one of them, too.

Yep - Bourne ward is in Blackpool N & Cleveleys at current, and raises the pop. there to 77,863 (I'm taking Doktorbs figures at face value, not doublechecking. )
Adding Staina to Fylde brings that to 81,204 and Preston N & Wyre down to 66,770... moving those four eastern Fylde rural precincts in instead (really the maximum that's feasible, too) brings it to 74,482 and the other down to 73,492. Three of the four would be enough numbers-wise but makes an ugly map. Two is not enough numbers-wise.

 

[minionofmidas]

Greater Manchester 25.52 : Wigan 3.09, Bolton 2.59, Bury 1.87, Salford 2.15, Trafford 2.17, Manchester 4.43, Stockport 2.88, Tameside 2.17, Oldham 2.11, Rochdale 2.06
Lancashire 11.74 + Blackburn 1.34 + Blackpool 1.47 = 14.55

Bolton bits transferred are 0.26, Bury bits transferred are 0.33.

Three Wigan seats
Two Rochdale seats as they are currently
Five Stockport/Tameside seats as layed out previously by Andrew
Two current Oldham seats
A Bury Proper seat
Remainder of Bury + Failsworth + Manchester + Trafford + Salford + remainder of Bolton + possibly that one Wigan ward, if that helps to keep the map tidy = 12 seats

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile in Merseyside... (outside the Wirral) 10.20 seats and I intend to draw 10. Possibly dropping a ward into Cheshire if it has to be done, but I'll be trying to avoid it. That means crossing all the borough boundaries.
Two Seats in Sefton, one seat mostly in Sefton with a bit in Liverpool, three seats in Liverpool, one seat mostly in Liverpool with a bit in Knowsley, one seat wholly in Knowsley, one seat mostly in St Helens with a bit in Knowsley, one seat wholly in Saint Helens.

[minionofmidas]

Greater Manchester 25.52 : Wigan 3.09, Bolton 2.59, Bury 1.87, Salford 2.15, Trafford 2.17, Manchester 4.43, Stockport 2.88, Tameside 2.17, Oldham 2.11, Rochdale 2.06
Lancashire 11.74 + Blackburn 1.34 + Blackpool 1.47 = 14.55

Bolton bits transferred are 0.26, Bury bits transferred are 0.33.

Three Wigan seats
Two Rochdale seats as they are currently
Five Stockport/Tameside seats as layed out previously by Andrew
Two current Oldham seats
A Bury Proper seat
Remainder of Bury + Failsworth + Manchester + Trafford + Salford + remainder of Bolton + possibly that one Wigan ward, if that helps to keep the map tidy = 12 seats

Would be simpler to say Bury + Bolton + Salford + Wigan - bits removed by doktorb = 9.11 seats.  I'm not doing the rest of the county again unless I have to.  Bury + Bolton - bits removed by doktorb = 3.87 so there should be no change to the Salford and Wigan proposals.

Bury proper is Church, East, Elton, Moorside, Redvales and Unsworth wards so it needs three more wards to bring it up to quota.  The obvious three are the Radcliffe wards

Yeah, I figured that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Except with Failsworth and bits of Manchester? (I'm still a little unhappy with your very low pop. Manchester seats... ) Though yeah, as what you're saying is feasible too, why not. Least work for us. 3.87+ whatever that one Wigan ward you have in there (and the boundary commission currently has in there, too) comes down to, that is. Probably something like 3.98.

[minionofmidas]

So yeah, Merseyside. The only thing I'm unhappy with is the splitting of Formby, but that was unavoidable once we don't cross the Merseyside-West Lancs border. Walton constituency is abolished.

Southport 77,512
Current constituency plus Harington (really Formby West) ward
Crosby & Magnull 77,203
Sefton Central minus Harington plus Victoria and Church wards
Bootle & Walton 73,755
Bootle minus Victoria and Church wards, plus County and Warbreck wards in Liverpool
Liverpool West Derby 75,353+x
Current constituency plus Clubmoor and Fazakerley wards minus western part of Tuebrook & Stoneycroft ward (10,291). It is hoped that either the railway or Green Lane would do the trick.
Liverpool Wavertree 70,712+x
Current constituency minus Church ward - that's Church ward in Liverpool, not Church ward in Sefton - plus Anfield and Everton. EDIT: Plus remainder of Tuebrook & Stoneycroft o/c, forgot to mention that.
Liverpool Riverside 73,310+x
Current constituency plus western part of Church ward (10,688)
Garston & Halewood 71,346+x
Current constituency plus remainder of Church ward
Knowsley 79,271
Saint Helens North 75,866
Saint Helens South & Whiston 78,705
all unchanged.

[minionofmidas]

A cross-Mersey doesn't make sense numberswise as the areas on either side are overquota for the number of seats they're going to get. Wirral will be paired with Cheshire.

[minionofmidas]

A cross-Mersey doesn't make sense

fyp

Yeah, I meant "not even numbers-wise". We all know it doesn't make sense in any other respect.

[minionofmidas]

I suggest that we just deport all the rich idiots from the Home Counties who have been ruining Northants for decades back to where they came from. That's what my late Grandma would have argued for, anyway.

But, yeah, any constituency would be ugly. But as ugly as the current one?

Possibly worse.

Corby + anything in Kettering borough west of Kettering proper (Desborough etc) + those three Daventry wards listed above + the fairly empty northernmore bits of East Northants to just north of Oundle (73,031) vs
Kettering proper + the central and south central bits of East Northants from Irthlingborough north to Oundle (78,580)?

What do you say, Al? Best I can do.

[minionofmidas]

Warrington North 70,953+x
While there is a ward along the constituency boundary that could be transferred whole (Latchford East), doing so makes little sense, and splitting Bewsey & Whitecross (7716) ward in the centre of Warrington proper is far more reasonable.
Warrington South 71,917+x
Remainder

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I'm far too lazy to work out where Westmorland used to end.

The part of Westmorland in Eden district seems to be Long Marton, Kirkby Thore, Eamont and Askham wards, the part of Ullswater ward around the head of the lake (Glenridding and Patterdale), and everything in Eden to the south of those.

The closest approximation to Westmorland using whole wards has an electorate of 73,554 according to my calculations, which is within the target range, but given that Cumbria as a whole is a bit over five quotas it's not going to be possible to do the rest of the county, so it's going to need a bit more territory from somewhere.  Here's what I ended up with:

1. Westmorland and Alston (77831): from South Lakeland Ambleside and Grasmere, Arnside and Beetham, Burneside, Burton and Holme, Crooklands, all the Kendal wards, Lyth Valley, Milnthorpe, Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale, both Staveleys, Whinfell, the Windermere wards; from Eden Alston Moor, the Appleby wards, Askham, Brough, Crosby Ravensworth, Eamont, Hartside, Kirkby Stephen, Kirkby Thore, Long Marton, Morland, Orton with Tebay, Ravenstonedale, Shap, Ullswater, Warcop.  [Staveley-in-Cartmel is Lancashire, but has to go here to get the numbers right.  Sedbergh is Yorkshire of course.]

2. Barrow and Furness (78432): the rest of South Lakeland; all of Barrow district.

3. Whitehaven and Workington (79542): all of Copeland; from Allerdale Clifton, Harrington, Moorclose, Moss Bay, St. John's, St. Michaels, Seaton, Stainburn.

4. Penrith, Keswick and Maryport (78152): rest of Allerdale; rest of Eden; from Carlisle Burgh, Dalston.

5. Carlisle and North Cumberland (76421): rest of Carlisle.

(I hope I haven't made any blunders here.)

Clearly better than my map. I salute you.
Though I disagree with most of your names. 1 could be simply Westmorland. The bits and pieces added are just too tiny and anyways situated in all directions. With all of Copeland in, I think 3 should be Copeland & Workington. And Keswick is tiny and sort of redundant as a naming component (the third largest settlement would be Cockermouth... or if the name's supposed to be geographically descriptive we'd need some place in the northern part of Allerdale, but there don't seem to be any of relevance. Anyways there's not really anythign wrong with Penrith & Maryport). And I want 5 to be called Carlisle & the Border (it's not just a pretty name - Border was also the name of the rural district in the area from the 30s to the 70s.)

[minionofmidas]

Wirral 240,390
Cheshire West & Chester 251,933
Halton 91,631
Cheshire East 288,796
Shropshire 230,844
Telford & the Wrekin 119,968

All of these have been grouped together. Cheshire E can actually (barely) stand alone for four seats, but doing so forces all sorts of weird little territorial transfers. Shropshire (UA) could, too, but that creates problems north and south. In addition, I tried to also pair Herefordshire with this but that created even worse horrors than I now have. (The issue with Herefordshire is that it can essentially stay as is but some non-Herefordshire territory - either in Shropshire or in Worcestershire - needs to be slapped onto the N Herefordshire constituency to bring it up to quota. Depending on the size of the territory used, maybe some wards near Hereford may be shifted to the S constituency, which is barely large enough as is. So yeah. I've settled on Worcestershire for now.)

New ward maps for Cheshire and Shropshire.

Wallasey 76,427
gains Hoylake & Meols
Birkenhead 75,220
gains Upton
That was the easy part (well, the first one of the easy parts).
For suburban Wirral and Ellesmere Port & Neston, I could either randomly slap one Wirral ward onto EPN - but after I had moved the non-former-EPN-district parts of that constituency into Chester, this left EPN undersized - or draw one seat along the Mersey and one seat along the Dee. Alas, that didn't work out too well either as there's more people along the Mersey:
Wirral West & Neston 76,027
West Cheshire wards of Neston & Parkgate and Ledsham & Willaston; three remaining Wirral West wards of West Kirkby & Thurstaston, Greasby, Frankby & Irby and Pensby & Thingwall; Wirral South wards of Heswall and (sigh ) Clatterbridge.
Ellesmere Port & Bebington 73,374
Remainder of Wirral and the four Ellesmere Port wards

City of Chester 75,446
Current constituency and remainder of Mickle Trafford ward (which is currently split between City of Chester, Ellesmere Port & Neston, and Eddisbury). This leaves Gowy ward split.
Halton 79,349
Gains Ditton and Halton Lea wards
Northwich & Wilmslow 84,234-x
Current Tatton constituency plus Northwich West and Northwich part of Northwich E & Shakerley (the part outside Northwich town is in Tatton already)
Macclesfield 74,595+x
Population is the current constituency. The current constituency boundaries split Alderley ward.
Slicing these two to be both within quota is going to be a challenge. The former ward of Alderley Edge and that (major) part of the former ward of Chelford currently in Alderley might just be the right size, though. (That still leaves the current Alderley ward split - the former ward of Fulshaw, which really belongs with Wilmslow, is left with Northwich & Wilmslow.) Total population of Alderley ward 10,556, of which 1994 are in Macclesfield already.

Now to the other easy part:
Congleton 74,806
unchanged
Crewe & Nantwich 78,469
unchanged

And for some comic relief, we cut to my inept attempts at drawing Shropshire:
Telford 74,734
Current constituency and Muxton and Donnington wards
Wellington, Newport & Market Drayton 73,234
Remainder of Telford & Wrekin; in northern Shropshire, Shawbury, Wem, and points east.
Ludlow 77,157
All of the former Bridgnorth and South Shropshire districts, ie gaining the Shifnal area from Wrekin
Shrewsbury & Atcham 75,076
Unchanged
Oswestry 79,500
The remaining wards in northwestern Shropshire (a somewhat larger area than the former Oswestry district), and from the abolished Eddisbury constituency the East Cheshire ward of Cholmondesley and the Cheshire West & Chester ward of Broxton and most of Gowy (see above, City of Chester).

Ooh, I forgot to list one of the Cheshire seats:
75,914
Remainder of Halton; Frodsham & Halston, Weaver, Eddisbury, Abbey, Winsford
Broadly a successor seat to Weaver Vale, but exchanging Northwich (and a bit of Halton) for the northern part of Eddisbury constituency. I haven't named it yet. Vale Royal & Halton East?