Undecideds will break for...?

[Niemeyerite]

Undecideds have broken against the incumbent because they voted the other candidate 4 years before (remember that no reelected president has won with less EVs than he won the first time since Wilson, IIRC), and when the President is behind in the polls, they tend to vote for the challenger because he's doing a better campaign or because the President is unpopular.

2012 is a different story: we have a tie which will probably become a slim Obama lead before Sunday, and 3/4 of undecideds voted for him in 2008. I don't think they'll break 60-40 or 75-25 against the President. It'll probably be 50-50 to 55-45 for Obama.