Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's some evidence to suggest that ethnic minority politicians are assumed to be further to the left than they actually are, and this probably does harm Sunak with the membership somewhat. But there's not much in the way of conscious bias.

[Lumine]

From the point of view of political malpractice alone - and leaving aside the ethical quagmire - the Conservatives deserve to lose the next election by making it Truss v. Sunak when they are in dire need for a reset.

I shudder to think how mediocre the next Cabinet is going to be - particularly under Truss - even compared to the current one.

Follow up to this, apparently Truss intends to give the Home Office to Therese Coffey, the Foreign Office to James Cleverly (why?), and to make Kwasi Kwarteng Chancellor. And Rees-Mogg and Dorries - because why not at this point - would remain in the Cabinet as well. That's a Ministry of All the Talents...

(Not that the prospective Sunak cabinet - Barclay, Raab, Javid, Hunt - looks much better, but still)

[Coldstream]

There's some evidence to suggest that ethnic minority politicians are assumed to be further to the left than they actually are, and this probably does harm Sunak with the membership somewhat. But there's not much in the way of conscious bias.

I’d be interested to see this evidence, and how strong it is.

[YL]

I'm not enough of a masochist to be watching this, but I gather Truss has been trying to paint Roundhay as some sort of ghetto again.

[JimJamUK]

Opinium finds ordinary voters think Sunak beat Truss in the debate by 39% to 38%. When you're only 1% ahead of Liz Truss in a debate...

[Conservatopia]

Opinium finds ordinary voters think Sunak beat Truss in the debate by 39% to 38%. When you're only 1% ahead of Liz Truss in a debate...

I took part in that poll. It asked all sorts of questions including who I'd rather have a coffee with. Don't they know Tories drink tea?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1551483420865347585?

There's been some chattering that Sunak's anti-china rethoric and promises will lead to an uptick of sinophobia. Anyway aren't most British of Chinese ethnicity tory voting ?

[JimJamUK]

Anyway aren't most British of Chinese ethnicity tory voting?

The population is so small and geographically disperse that no one really knows, but I’ve seen speculation that they are which wouldn’t surprise me given how upper-middle class the Chinese immigrant population tends to be (and it’s not like the Chinese ‘Communist’ Party has any real ideological beef with a Conservative party these days).

[Torrain]

British Chinese make up 0.7% of the population, around 300,000, but are dispersed far too widely to produce much of an electoral impact at the moment - remaining essentially ignored. I don’t believe we got our first British Chinese MP until Alan Mak in 2015, and even that moment passed without any headlines. 

It’s noteworthy that Britain still has a number of commitments to Hong Kong, many made since Beijing’s crackdown on democracy there. The current government essentially made an offer of passports and citizenship to around 2.6 million from the city.

Sunak’s line here is clearly aimed more at foreign policy hawks, than it is at any minority demographic. But given the predominance of Hong Kong, and recent immigration from those making good on the offer, I wouldn’t be wholly surprised if future appeals to the British Chinese demographic by the Conservatives look more like the Florida GOP’s approach to Cuba, and we see less of the Cameron-era approach to Beijing, full of state visits and selfies at Wimbledon with Xi Jingping.

[YL]

A fair proportion of Chinese people in the UK will be students who aren't UK citizens and so can't vote.  E.g. in the 2011 census the ward with the second highest percentage of Chinese people was Heslington ward in York; guess which institution dominates that ward.  (The highest was the then City Centre ward in Manchester.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A fair proportion of Chinese people in the UK will be students who aren't UK citizens and so can't vote.  E.g. in the 2011 census the ward with the second highest percentage of Chinese people was Heslington ward in York; guess which institution dominates that ward.  (The highest was the then City Centre ward in Manchester.)

I think a plurality if not majority of Ethnic Chinese in the UK are a mix of Singaporean, Malasiyan and Hong Kongers which are all commonwealth countries which have the right to vote.

Sunak’s line here is clearly aimed more at foreign policy hawks, than it is at any minority demographic. But given the predominance of Hong Kong, and recent immigration from those making good on the offer, I wouldn’t be wholly surprised if future appeals to the British Chinese demographic by the Conservatives look more like the Florida GOP’s approach to Cuba, and we see less of the Cameron-era approach to Beijing, full of state visits and selfies at Wimbledon with Xi Jingping.

It's interesting you bring this up because both the Canadian Conservative Party as well as the Australian one have experienced stark collapses in heavily chinese areas that used to be strongholds for the party as they adopted more hawkish views on foregin policy towards China.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway aren't most British of Chinese ethnicity tory voting?

The population is so small and geographically disperse that no one really knows, but I’ve seen speculation that they are which wouldn’t surprise me given how upper-middle class the Chinese immigrant population tends to be (and it’s not like the Chinese ‘Communist’ Party has any real ideological beef with a Conservative party these days).

There was a poll back in the 1980s which showed the Chinese community in Britain about two thirds Tory voting - that certainly seemed believable at the time and it may still be in that ballpark now.

[Blair]

My own limited experience from school is that there were far more people from Vietnam, Hong Kong, Thailand etc who tended to have mixed views on this subject.

[Torrain]

The Talk TV debate has been temporarily suspended, after an undisclosed medical incident. Truss was mid-sentence when there was a loud clatter offscreen.

Update: Debate has now been formally cancelled:
https://twitter.com/TalkTV/status/1551991600246669313

[Torrain]

It's interesting you bring this up because both the Canadian Conservative Party as well as the Australian one have experienced stark collapses in heavily chinese areas that used to be strongholds for the party as they adopted more hawkish views on foregin policy towards China.

That tracks, I guess.

My anecdotal experience has been that there’s a word of difference in political leaning (and voting pattern) between mainlanders and Hong Kong emigrants. My hypothetical was based on the idea that Hong Kong-specific emigrants become a significant enough group in their own right (in size and political identity), that they become a target bloc. To my mind, the Conservative Party would definitely gamble with the prospect of losing the votes of those with neutral/positive opinions on Beijing, if an active voter bloc existed that was hawkish on China.

An anti-China voting bloc could include both immigrants form the region, and a sizeable portion of the party base, particularly if China continues to expand in the Pacific, and Britain ends up committing to closer mutual defence agreements with Australia and New Zealand, for instance.

[DINGO Joe]

One small wrinkle to the contest is the weirdness going on with Lord Cruddas' petition, hosted on the Conservative Post website. The petition is a demand from Conservative Party members for Johnson to be included on the ballot - or for a concurrent vote asking for members' confidence in Johnson to be tested.

None of this is actually feasible under the party constitution (which explicitly bars a leader running in the race caused by their resignation), barring a serious rewrite of the rules. But it's doing big numbers in some niche corners of the internet, and the Telegraph's Christopher Hope seems to have gone all-out on boosting the story at every chance he gets. As of this evening, the petition has reached 10,000 signatures, around 5% of the total party membership.

But, you ask, how is this verifiable? The petition requires everyone who signs it to include their Conservative Party membership number. Which sounds pretty solid, until you read the fine-print on the website:

We want to make sure this is completed by Conservative Party members only, and the best way to do this is by asking for your membership number so we can validate your membership status. If you don't know your membership number enter '0' for now and provide your address below.

So, there's a decent chance this thing could all be astroturfed. But if Johnson-appointed peers and the Telegraph & Express keep breathlessly reporting it, I'd expect it'll keep coming up for a while, especially if it 'reaches' 10 or 15% of the party membership.

Doing my part to save the Mother Country

Which Tory member name did you use, Haywood Jablowme or Amanda Hugginkiss?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

One small wrinkle to the contest is the weirdness going on with Lord Cruddas' petition, hosted on the Conservative Post website. The petition is a demand from Conservative Party members for Johnson to be included on the ballot - or for a concurrent vote asking for members' confidence in Johnson to be tested.

None of this is actually feasible under the party constitution (which explicitly bars a leader running in the race caused by their resignation), barring a serious rewrite of the rules. But it's doing big numbers in some niche corners of the internet, and the Telegraph's Christopher Hope seems to have gone all-out on boosting the story at every chance he gets. As of this evening, the petition has reached 10,000 signatures, around 5% of the total party membership.

But, you ask, how is this verifiable? The petition requires everyone who signs it to include their Conservative Party membership number. Which sounds pretty solid, until you read the fine-print on the website:

We want to make sure this is completed by Conservative Party members only, and the best way to do this is by asking for your membership number so we can validate your membership status. If you don't know your membership number enter '0' for now and provide your address below.

So, there's a decent chance this thing could all be astroturfed. But if Johnson-appointed peers and the Telegraph & Express keep breathlessly reporting it, I'd expect it'll keep coming up for a while, especially if it 'reaches' 10 or 15% of the party membership.

Doing my part to save the Mother Country

Which Tory member name did you use, Haywood Jablowme or Amanda Hugginkiss?

I hope it was my favourite Mike Oxlong.

[Fubart Solman]

One small wrinkle to the contest is the weirdness going on with Lord Cruddas' petition, hosted on the Conservative Post website. The petition is a demand from Conservative Party members for Johnson to be included on the ballot - or for a concurrent vote asking for members' confidence in Johnson to be tested.

None of this is actually feasible under the party constitution (which explicitly bars a leader running in the race caused by their resignation), barring a serious rewrite of the rules. But it's doing big numbers in some niche corners of the internet, and the Telegraph's Christopher Hope seems to have gone all-out on boosting the story at every chance he gets. As of this evening, the petition has reached 10,000 signatures, around 5% of the total party membership.

But, you ask, how is this verifiable? The petition requires everyone who signs it to include their Conservative Party membership number. Which sounds pretty solid, until you read the fine-print on the website:

We want to make sure this is completed by Conservative Party members only, and the best way to do this is by asking for your membership number so we can validate your membership status. If you don't know your membership number enter '0' for now and provide your address below.

So, there's a decent chance this thing could all be astroturfed. But if Johnson-appointed peers and the Telegraph & Express keep breathlessly reporting it, I'd expect it'll keep coming up for a while, especially if it 'reaches' 10 or 15% of the party membership.

Doing my part to save the Mother Country

Which Tory member name did you use, Haywood Jablowme or Amanda Hugginkiss?

I hope it was my favourite Mike Oxlong.

I put Boris Johnson, address 10 Downing St

[DINGO Joe]

One small wrinkle to the contest is the weirdness going on with Lord Cruddas' petition, hosted on the Conservative Post website. The petition is a demand from Conservative Party members for Johnson to be included on the ballot - or for a concurrent vote asking for members' confidence in Johnson to be tested.

None of this is actually feasible under the party constitution (which explicitly bars a leader running in the race caused by their resignation), barring a serious rewrite of the rules. But it's doing big numbers in some niche corners of the internet, and the Telegraph's Christopher Hope seems to have gone all-out on boosting the story at every chance he gets. As of this evening, the petition has reached 10,000 signatures, around 5% of the total party membership.

But, you ask, how is this verifiable? The petition requires everyone who signs it to include their Conservative Party membership number. Which sounds pretty solid, until you read the fine-print on the website:

We want to make sure this is completed by Conservative Party members only, and the best way to do this is by asking for your membership number so we can validate your membership status. If you don't know your membership number enter '0' for now and provide your address below.

So, there's a decent chance this thing could all be astroturfed. But if Johnson-appointed peers and the Telegraph & Express keep breathlessly reporting it, I'd expect it'll keep coming up for a while, especially if it 'reaches' 10 or 15% of the party membership.

Doing my part to save the Mother Country

Which Tory member name did you use, Haywood Jablowme or Amanda Hugginkiss?

I hope it was my favourite Mike Oxlong.

I put Boris Johnson, address 10 Downing St

Well, then it would have been thrown out for being a duplicate, especially if you used the same comment as DC and Boris himself.

[Coldstream]

Genuinely hilarious article about Patel & Wallace written in the style of a paparazzi snap.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11051213/Priti-Patel-Ben-Wallace-enjoy-day-Glorious-Goodwood-away-unedifying-Tory-leader-race.html

[CumbrianLefty]

Opinium finds ordinary voters think Sunak beat Truss in the debate by 39% to 38%. When you're only 1% ahead of Liz Truss in a debate...

A man repeatedly talking over a woman rarely works. A bit unfair maybe, but that's just how it is.

[Torrain]

In one of the least surprising developments of the contest - a cursory check of the “Boris on the Ballot” petition has revealed widespread fraud. Sounds like Devout Centrist was just one of many gaming the system…

Petition to reinstate Boris Johnson fails as less than half of signatures were from party members

A petition demanding party members be given a vote on the removal of Boris Johnson has reportedly failed after the Tories found that fewer than half of those signing it were party members.

The Guardian reports that senior Conservatives have privately voiced scepticism about the poll, which has been signed by 14,000 people, has been organised by the website Conservative Post, and backed by Tory donor Peter Cruddas and former MEP David Campbell Bannerman.

The publications reports that the party headquarters sampled a few hundred names of those signing the poll and found that the majority were not party members. But it said organisers say CCHQ is yet to receive the bulk of the names, which they say they are verifying, and that its sampling would not be representative.

[CumbrianLefty]

Has the Barclaygraph got round to reporting this yet?

[Torrain]

Has the Barclaygraph got round to reporting this yet?

Haven’t seen any further news - and Hope, who’d been chief cheerleader for it has moved on sharing stories about sending puppies to soldiers in Ukraine, and advising Starmer to nick Thatcher’s 1979s slogans - namely “Britain isn’t working”.

So I think they’re just going to let it fade away, and move on to new weirdness.

Edit: at the Leeds hustings this evening, Nick Ferrari brought up the petition, and its supposed 14,000 'valid' signatures, and the Tory members in the room broke into applause, so maybe its going to rattle away in the background for a bit longer. Honestly, I just don't know at this point.

[Coldstream]

I think there’s a non-zero chance Boris Johnson could come back as PM, he maintains the loyalty of a certain section of the Tory party - and it’s hardly likely that people as unimpressive as Sunak & Truss will catch light with the public. So I can just about see a situation where Labour are 20pts up next year and Tory MPs panic and get buyers remorse, fearing Johnson is the only one who can keep their seats a la Kevin Rudd in 2013. I wouldn’t bet against that happening, but it’s perfectly possible and far more plausible than any ex-PM since Wilson coming back.

But there’s a zero chance of any petition bringing him back this time.