Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[DavidB.]

Why did they defect from SD?

[DavidB.]

Former Sweden Democratic Youth leader Gustav Kasselstrand founded a new party to the right of the Sweden Democrats, named Alternative for Sweden (Alternativ för Sverige). Under Kasselstrand's leadership, SD cut all ties with Sweden Democratic Youth because they had become too radical for SD.

Some consider Kasselstrand's move to form a new party to be "a gamechanger" in Swedish politics (Daniel Poohl, CEO of a left-wing organization) as AfS are "bringing together far-right factions that have resisted cooperation in the past and have not been able to find homes within the Sweden Democrats or the small neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement." Others, like political scientist Cas Mudde, say that this is great news for SD, as it backs up SD's claim that they have become more moderate -- so moderate that extremists leave the party in droves and found their own one.

[DavidB.]

I’d be more inclined to agree with Mudde until is AvS polling.

Agreed.

Also: is is Kasselsteand a Petry fan?

Seems more like the Gauland supporting type to me...

[DavidB.]

Apparently Jewish schools get to remain open under the SAP plan because they would be ethnic rather than religious, or so I heard.

[DavidB.]

Non-US posters: is Bannon viewed as particularly extreme even beyond Trump?

I doubt many people know who he is. Those who do are probably likely to view him as the main alt-right "influential" within his (former) circle, so yes, they will probably view him as more extreme than Trump.

That said, having Bannon come over isn't bad in PR terms because he's Bannon (most people don't know him), it's bad because he's tied to Trump, who is very unpopular in Europe, even among many voters for radical right-wing parties.

[DavidB.]

Lots of talk about AfS in the right-wing internet sphere. Swedes, do you have the impression that they are taking off? Chances of them making it into parliament?

[DavidB.]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.

[DavidB.]

I was previously under the impression that AvS would be small, and the defection of the far-right would be a net benefit for the SD. But if they're actually taking off enough to come close to entering parliament they could be harming SD.

By a) normalizing SD, who look moderate in comparison, and b) moving the Overton window to the right, they could still help increase the chances of SD government cooperation with the center-right (through a demand-and-supply agreement or on an ad-hoc basis, not from within the government), even if SD's percentage of the vote would be a bit lower. I hope AfS manage to make it in and would consider voting for them if they poll higher than 3%.

I meant AvS might harm SD by taking away a chunk of the vote SD can’t make up with center-right coverts.

Sure, but SD's actual percentage of the vote doesn't matter as much as its coalitionability. It might be better for SD to win 17% of the vote but to be perceived as the more moderate party than to win 23%, to still be called Nazis, and to be sidelined. Of course, should AfS really win so much that SD barely make any gains compared to 2014, this would be different, but this scenario does not seem too likely to me.

Thank you for your answer, SwedishCheese. How anti-Israel are AfS exactly? I suppose I could live with a "not our problem, don't engage with it" stance to the point where I could still vote for them over SD (who are better on this issue), but anything further than that (i.e. outspoken solidarity with "Palestine") would be a dealbreaker.

[DavidB.]

I don't see what would compel the average SD-voter abandon the safe option to vote for an alternative (pun intended) that may not make it in and thus risk wasting their vote.

AfS are in favor of repatriation of unassimilated foreigners, that is far more radical than SD's policy.

Yes, I do not recall SD campaigning on deporting "hundreds of thousands. At least." I cannot think of another RRWP in Western Europe that has explicitly said the same, either.

[DavidB.]

AfS are Nazis so they probably want Jews to be dead. Hardly surprising David B would be a fan of theirs.

...

I used to know a Kasselstrand fan, very weird person. And extremely anti-semitic.

I used to know an Alliance voter online, very weird person. And extremely smug. All these parties must be like that as well.

Kasselstrand's position is that Palestine should be internationally recognized as an independent state, according to himself based on his nationalistic belief that every people (and he's counts the Palestinians as one) has a right to their own sovereign nation and right to expel people with another nationality and culture.

This positioning doesn't pass the bullsh*t test. No Palestinian supporter on the far right actually cares about Palestinians, they only care about opposing Jews. Regardless, the damage on this subject is already done, as Sweden is unlikely to withdraw its recognition of Palestine even under an Alliance or right-wing government. If AfS want to stay neutral (no foreign aid to P., neutral votes in international fora) I could live with their stance, otherwise it becomes problematic. Anyway, difficult to form an opinion of them. I will just follow in what direction they develop themselves. Seems like they attracted some of the more serious SD politicians.

[DavidB.]

The Jewish community in northern Umeå has closed down following serious threats by the neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement. This means there is no Jewish community left in the northern 2/3rds of Sweden. The Jewish community laments the lack of concrete actions taken by local politicians to make sure no threats would be issued anymore.

Nordic Resistance has grown by a lot and spread like wildfire all over Sweden over the last few years. They sought to organize a march at a synagogue in Göteborg on Yom Kippur last year to intimidate Jews, but were banned from doing so.

[DavidB.]

In other anti-semitism news Björn Söder, 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag and former Party Secretary of the Sweden Democrats decided to open his mouth (well, technically his facebook account) and talk a bit about Jews and Swedishness again. After all, it went so well when he did it back in 2014.

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Not a smart issue to talk about right before an election. That said, I don't think it was antisemitic. I followed the controversy, and his argument was that Sweden (essentially like Russia) is a multicultural society that comprises multiple peoples: the Swedish nation, but also Jews and Sami. According to this line of reasoning Jews and Sami are equally Swedish in terms of citizenship but are distinct peoples with a right to their own culture and heritage, together making up Sweden. Not recognizing this would essentially force these minorities into the Swedish mold.

One can agree or disagree with this. I am on the fence, and I understand why many Jews would dislike the perception of their Swedishness being questioned. I certainly would feel awkward if the Dutch right started talking about this subject. However, I don't think it is antisemitic, as I think Söder meant to say what I outlined in the above paragraph.

[DavidB.]

If SD really get close to 30%, a minority government of M supported from the outside by SD (and L) seems difficult to avoid unless they really want to give the finger to all these SD voters. But it's probably going to be somewhere in 20-25% territory.

[DavidB.]

YouGov poll for June

Which parties other than AfS are below the threshold under "Other" and will get more than a non-negligible share of the vote? If there are none, AfS could be close to 3% in this poll.

[DavidB.]

https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medborgerlig_samling_(2010-talet)

A new non-socialist is probably the party with the strongest support among the "others".

What is the difference between this party and the Liberals (or the Moderates, for that matter)?

[DavidB.]

Thank you for your elaborate response. I very much empathize with Silberstein's line of reasoning. The point about SD's background is less relevant to me (though obviously Ekström was a criminal and any foreign Waffen-SS volunteer returning to his country of origin should have been shot upon arrival), but I definitely understand it is painful for Swedish Jews to have their Swedishness questioned.

Using ethnicity as a defining factor does not necessarily mean one has to be 100% Swedish to be considered part of the Swedish nation, I think, and I don't think Söder is arguing this either. However, going into the specifics of this obviously gets extremely problematic, as you don't want to end up on your way to Nuremberg. But the idea of ethnicity being a relevant aspect (though not the only aspect, and not necessarily the decisive aspect) to one's national identity stands, I think.

This discussion does seem to be the consequence of Sweden's immigration policy, as a consequence of which the point where immigrants would be expected to fully integrate into Swedish society has long been passed and a community-based approach is adopted instead. Ordinary people are inevitably going to differentiate between Swedes and "foreigners with a Swedish passport" who do not adhere to Swedish cultural norms at all and might not even self-identify as Swedish. Then the question becomes: where do you draw the line? Who's in and who's out? Pretty pointless to start talking about Jews, Sami and Tornedalians in this context, though.

[DavidB.]

MED is liberal-conservative but more fierce and sees them selves as the new and real opposition.

They have way fewer likes on Facebook than AfS (11k vs. 23k). Perhaps not a good metric to measure actual support (and I imagine quite some foreigners -- like me -- have liked their page, which will not be the case for MED), but it's almost solely Swedes liking and replying to their posts. It does seem as if there is some momentum here, and I think they might be doing better in the polls than MED too. Though SD's high polling numbers probably hurt AfS.

[DavidB.]

I don't think this was a debate on legislation (which is also one of the reasons why it was unwise for Söder to speak out about it).

[DavidB.]

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

[DavidB.]

Today some M politician admitted that the "Alliance is dead". Essentially, M and L will be the kingmakers. The red "bloc" -- or whatever is left of it -- might still become bigger than the dead Alliance, but neither will obviously come close to a majority. So M have to decide whether they are willing to form a government dependent on SD from the outside (or dependent on Center and some of the left-wing parties from the outside, which would be a redux of the current situation but with the "right" in power). L have to decide a) whether to cooperate with SD at all and b) whether to have an M-L govt or to support an M govt from the outside. The bigger SD become, the more difficult it will be to ignore them. It could get more messy and complicated if M+L+SD don't have a majority (assuming KD don't reach the threshold).

Do you think L will actually be able to wield that much influence on 4-5% of the vote?

Seems likely that M and SD alone will not have a majority, and assuming KD don't get in, L is the next likeliest party to change its mind on cooperation with SD, especially if a) M do it too and b) SD will not actually be in the government. Though of course it remains to be seen whether they are ready to cross that bridge.

[DavidB.]

Sweden Democrats have been accepted into the European Conservatives and Reformists group at the European Parliament. Thus the party moves further toward the mainstream and away from the fringe; it's more difficult to label a sister party of the British Tories as far-right (though I'm sure people will try...).

I agree with your main point. However, the Tories will be out, and ECR will probably be PiS-led from next year onwards, meaning the group will move to the right: the Tories were always the ones keeping it from becoming openly nationalist.

From a domestic perspective this is a very smart move by SD, as the association with EFDD could be an argument for other parties to portray them as extreme, and Swedes don't want to rock the boat. I don't think SD's position on the EU has actually changed, though.

[DavidB.]

Agreed, that's the rhetoric - but the main ECR party is the only party ever to call an EU exit referendum and now almost fully supports EU exit. It's a matter of time and circumstance. PiS probably couldn't conceivably call and win an EU exit referendum, the circumstances aren't there in Poland, but Sweden Democrats could.

You don't know what you are talking about. The vast majority of the Swedes do not want to leave the EU, and neither do SD. If SD were to support Swexit and made this an important campaign theme, they would lose a lot of votes compared to the current polls.

Meanwhile, AfS have launched their campaign #enhalvmiljon, indicating the number of immigrants (half a million) they want out at the very least. 88.000 (makes you think) of them would be immigrants with Swedish citizenship.

[DavidB.]

Some "interesting" comments by FI candidate Oldoz Javidi, who thinks Israel should be ethnically cleansed of Jews, who, according to her, should move to the U.S. A very "anti-racist" party indeed Perhaps they can merge with an organization with the same opinion of Jews. Nordic Resistance comes to mind. FI might come a little closer to reaching the electoral threshold if they do so.

[DavidB.]

Good to see that most of Center's virtual gains have evaporated. Also interesting - though not in a positive sense - that AfS could be around 1% only. This seems to be going nowhere.

Why is V gaining so much? Something with the fires?

[DavidB.]

I saw that AfS are telling their supporters to write in their party name on the ballot. I assume this means they didn't manage to get enough signatures to have official ballots for their party? (I know how the Swedish system of picking ballots of every party works)