MT-SEN 2020: Time for Bullock?

[Zaybay]

again, way too long, not polluting this thread

Yes, I was referring to congressional results, its usually the best way to gauge a state out of the three (congressional, senatorial, gubernatorial, in that order) because its the least likely to be affected by candidates.

[IceSpear]

stuff

Well then I'm not sure exactly what you're even arguing against here. I never stated that it was impossible for any Democrat to win in a Republican and/or rural state/district. In fact, my final prediction had Tester narrowly winning as well as West Virginia being a close race due to polarization and the Trump effect (yes, I picked the wrong winner, but most people here didn't even think it would be a close race at all because they underestimated these factors.) I also had Delgado, Brindisi, and Golden winning. The point is, polarization, partisanship, fundamentals, etc. are major factors that need to be given heavy weight and be fully accounted for, and this forum dismisses them far too easily, as was shown in 2018.

[Zaybay]

stuff

more stuff

Then Im not sure why you are arguing against what I said. I mean, this whole thing started because I said that AL wasnt a good example of your polarization argument, as it was already polarized to start with for most of its history(a better example would have been a state like ND, which regularly elected D senators).I already said back in another post that I had no real problem with the theory, only when its applied in blanket terms to everything(which some posters, not you, have taken up to doing). And then you inquired why I had some states as tossups, and...well, now we are here.

[Pericles]

Bredesen wasn't even a bad candidate(Strickland and Bayh were), he was probably the best Democrats could have hoped for in Tennessee, it's just the state was too red and 2018 is too hyper-polarized for him to cut through.

[TML]

Bredesen wasn't even a bad candidate(Strickland and Bayh were), he was probably the best Democrats could have hoped for in Tennessee, it's just the state was too red and 2018 is too hyper-polarized for him to cut through.

I beg to differ a bit here; although Bredesen maintained a lead for many months, I always had a feeling that his Republican-lite campaign might turn out to be his Achilles' heel, and his support for Kavanaugh was probably the final nail in the coffin for a shellacking (remember that this move cost him a lot of potential support).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bredesen wasn't even a bad candidate(Strickland and Bayh were), he was probably the best Democrats could have hoped for in Tennessee, it's just the state was too red and 2018 is too hyper-polarized for him to cut through.

I beg to differ a bit here; although Bredesen maintained a lead for many months, I always had a feeling that his Republican-lite campaign might turn out to be his Achilles' heel, and his support for Kavanaugh was probably the final nail in the coffin for a shellacking (remember that this move cost him a lot of potential support).

Bullock appointed Walsh to the seat, that how Dainea got elected. Bredesen picked fight with Leader Reid due to Kavanaugh. In OH, the pro Trump forces in OH was too strong. But, 2020 is a different story.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bredesen wasn't even a bad candidate(Strickland and Bayh were), he was probably the best Democrats could have hoped for in Tennessee, it's just the state was too red and 2018 is too hyper-polarized for him to cut through.

I beg to differ a bit here; although Bredesen maintained a lead for many months, I always had a feeling that his Republican-lite campaign might turn out to be his Achilles' heel, and his support for Kavanaugh was probably the final nail in the coffin for a shellacking (remember that this move cost him a lot of potential support).

Bullock appointed Walsh to the seat, that how Dainea got elected. Bredesen picked fight with Leader Reid due to Kavanaugh. In OH, the pro Trump forces in OH was too strong. But, 2020 is a different story.

This narrative must sound really appealing to you guys, because you keep holding onto it for dear life regardless of how ridiculous it is.

Bredesen endorsing Kavanaugh didn't cost him the election, him endorsing Kavanaugh was the only way he had a chance in hell in hell of winning it.

Tennessee is less diverse, less highly educated and more Evangelical than almost any other state and this election was very polarized based on demographics. Bredesen could not scale that mountain of pro-Trump demographics regardless of what he did.

The polling didn't capture adequately Republican support levels and furthermore Blackburn intentionally went dark on the campaign trail because people were confusing her with Diane Black.

That is why MS Senate ended up closer than TN and GA Governor ended up closer still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strickland, Bayh and Bredesen both forgot about their liberal roots and took more conservative stances and they all lost in landslides. Bredesen didnt just endorse Kavanaugh, he said he wouldn't endorse Leader Schumer for Majority leader. Walsh was Bullocks hand picked successor to Baucus, and Walsh resigned.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I beg to differ a bit here; although Bredesen maintained a lead for many months, I always had a feeling that his Republican-lite campaign might turn out to be his Achilles' heel, and his support for Kavanaugh was probably the final nail in the coffin for a shellacking (remember that this move cost him a lot of potential support).

Potential support from who exactly? Tennessee is literally the most white evangelical state in America and was still majority white evangelical in 2014.

The only time he won statewide was in a less polarized era (2002-2006) for a less polarizing position (Governor) with a less polarizing set of policy initiatives for Tennessee (he was a fairly conservative Democrat). Furthermore, Bredesen made huge gains over Obama 2008 in all of the cities and most of the suburbs. Guess where he underperformed Obama 2008? Rural areas:

   


And if you genuinely believe that rural TN Dixiecrats that held their nose for Obama in 2008 and switched to Blackburn 10 years later (not including those that just died) were on track to vote for Bredesen but changed their minds because he was too supportive of a conservative Justice well...there’s nothing I can do to convince you otherwise.

[DC Al Fine]

Bredesen wasn't even a bad candidate(Strickland and Bayh were), he was probably the best Democrats could have hoped for in Tennessee, it's just the state was too red and 2018 is too hyper-polarized for him to cut through.

I beg to differ a bit here; although Bredesen maintained a lead for many months, I always had a feeling that his Republican-lite campaign might turn out to be his Achilles' heel, and his support for Kavanaugh was probably the final nail in the coffin for a shellacking (remember that this move cost him a lot of potential support).

Bullock appointed Walsh to the seat, that how Dainea got elected. Bredesen picked fight with Leader Reid due to Kavanaugh. In OH, the pro Trump forces in OH was too strong. But, 2020 is a different story.

This narrative must sound really appealing to you guys, because you keep holding onto it for dear life regardless of how ridiculous it is.

Bredesen endorsing Kavanaugh didn't cost him the election, him endorsing Kavanaugh was the only way he had a chance in hell in hell of winning it.

Tennessee is less diverse, less highly educated and more Evangelical than almost any other state and this election was very polarized based on demographics. Bredesen could not scale that mountain of pro-Trump demographics regardless of what he did.

The polling didn't capture adequately Republican support levels and furthermore Blackburn intentionally went dark on the campaign trail because people were confusing her with Diane Black.

That is why MS Senate ended up closer than TN and GA Governor ended up closer still.

Huh? What happened there?

[TheBeardedOne]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1073946728561344512?s=21


Primarying Daines in 2020? Running for Governor in 2020?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1073946728561344512?s=21


Primarying Daines in 2020? Running for Governor in 2020?

Hoping he doesn’t get indicted

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1073946728561344512?s=21


Primarying Daines in 2020? Running for Governor in 2020?

Recognizing what House subpoena power means for him and that he needs to get out, now.

On Earth 2, he just defeated Jon Tester by 12 points.

[😥]

Can popular incumbent white male Governor beat not very popular incumbent white male Senator in elastic red state, as Montana?

[Continential]

or Cooney 

[Peanut]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

[SnowLabrador]

He's our only chance. But I think it's more likely that he runs for President.

[Woody]

Daines would slaughter him. There is no way Montanans want 2 democratic senators representing them. Baker would have a better chance becoming a senator than Bullock.

[Roll Roons]

Daines would slaughter him. There is no way Montanans want 2 democratic senators representing them. Baker would have a better chance becoming a senator than Bullock.

Montana had two Democratic Senators from 2006 to 2014.

[Woody]

Daines would slaughter him. There is no way Montanans want 2 democratic senators representing them. Baker would have a better chance becoming a senator than Bullock.

Montana had two Democratic Senators from 2006 to 2014.

Times are changing.

[Sestak]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

[JMT]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Daines would slaughter him. There is no way Montanans want 2 democratic senators representing them. Baker would have a better chance becoming a senator than Bullock.

Montana had two Democratic Senators from 2006 to 2014.

I bet any amount of money that our totally-objective SirWoodbury thought there was no way Montanans would reelect a Democrat six weeks ago.

[brucejoel99]

Bullock would be a great candidate, and of course our best shot to win this race. He's a Scott or Hassan. I hope he hasn't gotten it in his head to run for President.

Unfortunately, it looks like he has.

I think he will probably run for President. But, assuming he doesn’t make it far, he could drop out of the Presidential race and then run for Senate. I think that will possibly (perhaps likely) happen. .

[MT Treasurer]

It will be the least shocking news ever if the only lesson Republicans take away from Tester's victory is that any Republican candidate who doesn’t have a Baltimore accent and has "incumbency advantage" will automatically be heavily favored even against the most popular statewide elected official (Bullock is more popular than Tester), and they inevitably blow it again in 2020 even if Trump wins reelection. Yeah, we get it, Rosendale wasn’t a strong candidate, it’s true, but it’s silly and absolutely lazy to lay all the blame for Tester's victory on him. Even many Republicans have already admitted that the late and half-hearted NRSC involvement in Montana was the most decisive factor in his defeat, and the Democrats' ground operation (particularly on college campuses and reservations) shouldn’t be underestimated. There’s zero reason to believe that Democratic base voters aren’t going to turn out in 2020 or that they will be more supportive of Daines than Rosendale.

I maintain that this seat is more likely to flip than Iowa, even if Bullock declines to run for some reason (which would hardly make the race Safe R). Daines is absurdly overrated on this forum and among pundits in general and very beatable if Democrats play their cards right and/or 2020 is a favorable year for Democrats.