Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble). (user search)
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  Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble). (search mode)
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Author Topic: Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).  (Read 15809 times)
Badger
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« on: May 03, 2010, 01:33:29 PM »

And by all accounts Sestak has been absolute murder to work for as well.
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Badger
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2010, 10:10:05 PM »

DSCC is now wasting money trying to save Specter. Ugh.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dscc_investing.php

I'm starting to think this could end up really close.

That was probably the deal that was made when Specter switched, and voted for HCR as part of his side of the bargain, etc.  I have this intuition that Specter is more interested in political survival than ideology. He is a very practical man.

Nah, he was always decidedly left of center for the GOP. And as the GOP has steadily moved further and further right, it was a race between retirement and him leaving the party.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2010, 11:51:08 AM »

DSCC is now wasting money trying to save Specter. Ugh.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dscc_investing.php

I'm starting to think this could end up really close.

That was probably the deal that was made when Specter switched, and voted for HCR as part of his side of the bargain, etc.  I have this intuition that Specter is more interested in political survival than ideology. He is a very practical man.

Nah, he was always decidedly left of center for the GOP. And as the GOP has steadily moved further and further right, it was a race between retirement and him leaving the party.

Ya, that is Specter's side of the story I admit. Color me cynical. The ironic thing in any event as to timing, is that the next Senate will have more moderate GOP Senators.

Eh, maybe.  Its hard to say exactly how moderate Hoeven will be.  Castle will be moderate, but Voinovich is leaving.   I don't think Kirk will win when its all set and done.

However, keep in mind the PA Republican electorate became much more conservative.  Specter's strongest base was moderates in suburban Philadelphia.  The Party registration changes in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties were simply immense.  Specter's old school moderate suburban base simply left the party in droves. 

Exactly. Don't get me wrong, Torie; I have no doubt that Specter would've stayed a Republican if he thought he would beat Toomey in the primary. But as Smash pointed out his base switched en masse to the Democrats, so why wouldn't he also?

Perhaps it would have been more accurate to say the last 30 years were a race between whether Specter's retirement and the GOP leaving him rather than the other way around. And in 2010 the inevitable rightward march of the Republican Party finally won.
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2010, 02:07:01 PM »

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)

"Too early"? Sestak just pulled ahead or even in most polls within the last week, and the primary's only 6 days away.
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2010, 11:42:43 AM »

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Someplace there was polling on that.  It was basically a "Who do you think can win the general election" question.  Specter "won" that poll.  I think 29% thought that Sestak could win.

I don't agree; I've said from the start that Sestak is the stronger general election candidate.  The perception might be that Sestak is weaker. 



Not to mention Specter's much better known and his opposition is much more "solid" then Sestak's. Sestak conversely has a much better chance to expand his numbers.
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