What will the margin be in MD-SEN?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrat wins by over twenty points.

It will be a relatively good showing for Hogan, but it still won't be enough.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just want to point out the last time we saw a Senate overperformance as big as Hogan would need to win was Manchin 2012. I think people forget just how blue federally Maryland is these days; it's basically as blue as states like Idaho, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota are red.

My guess is D+20. I really don't see Hogan doing enough work to detach himself from the toxic elements of the Republican brand.

And with a more educated than average Democratic populace, even if they had good-will towards Hogan as Governor, they are more likely to discern the difference between electing a Republican as a number in the Senate versus a Governor who would be forced to work with a Democratic legislature.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hogan is DOA. Yes, he will overperform by a lot, but the type of overperformance he would need is pretty much unheard of for a Senate race in this day and age. Even if Maryland swings a bit to the right nationally (not at all a given, since it's pretty consistently swung leftward), he would still need at least a 30-point overperformance. The only time that has happened recently (not including uncontested Senate races or D vs. D races) was WV-SEN 2012. Even a Collins type overperformance would still be a double digit loss for Hogan. It's also worth mentioning that he was not re-elected by the type of margins Baker and Scott got. He won by 12% against a bad opponent. So it's not like his popularity even translated into that big of a win as an incumbent in a gubernatorial race. In a federal race, where he'll very quickly be painted as a reliable Republican vote, there's no way he's winning or coming close. Maryland is also much more Democratic than Montana or Tennessee are Republican.

Democrats have plenty of problems going into the elections this year, but MD-SEN ain't one. Safe D, the Democrat wins by 13-15%, maybe more.

Thank you! Yes, at best he might get something like a Michael Steele 2006 result, or 2012 non-Cardin candidate percentage.