House Results thread

[bullmoose88]

IN 07 has started to close up...(from huge democratic numbers earlier)

[bullmoose88]

PA 08 Bucks wards:

http://www.buckscountyelections.org/DistrictResults.aspx?on=060&dft=0&dfv=&rlt=0&rlc=

Just from eyeballing these, many of these are in lower (more democratic) Bucks.

Bristol boro/twp are pretty dem, falls dem but less so, Bensalem probably equally dem...middletown swing,

feel free to ask about the other wards

[bullmoose88]

Northhampton Twp starting to report in Bucks...fairly republican

[bullmoose88]

I don't see too many more Dem wards left to report....well to put it this way...seems like plenty more GOP districts to report relative to the dems.

Murphy's doing better in some areas but I think he's gonna run out of gas.

[bullmoose88]

Bucks

Democrat
Patrick J. Murphy  66186  
 50.3%
Republican
Michael G. Fitzpatrick  65459  
 49.7%

187 of 309 precincts reporting

[bullmoose88]

Fitz trails in bucks by 400 votes, 80 or so precincts to report (generally republican) but...I don't think Montco has reported...and this may be good news for murphy.

[bullmoose88]

I'm starting to really worry in PA-08.

[bullmoose88]

Fitz has taken the lead in Bucks...but can he put up a margin to cover whatever murphy leads might surface in philly and montco?

[bullmoose88]

Murphy may have done it. May have taken a seat not held by a dem since Jan 1993.

Fitz needs to increase his lead in Bucks...big and fast...

:-/

[bullmoose88]

Murphy and Murphy look set to win in PA-06 and PA-08 at this point. I don't think Fitzpatrick and Gerlach can pull it out. In PA-06, only Dem areas are left to report and Gerlach is already behind, and, in PA-08, Fitzpatrick is losing back ground.

Fitz has some GOP leaning wards left...but they're not likely to come in strong enough.

I'm gonna call this for Murphy...and choke on my own vomit.

[bullmoose88]

Murphy Leads in PA 08, but Fitz is slowly expanding his small lead in bucks...dunno if there are enough votes left but its possible.

[bullmoose88]

I was just gonna say...looking at the remaining wards in Bucks...Fitz will gain votes on murphy, but it doesn't look like he's got 1400 votes or more in him.

Sad. Fitz was a good guy who ran into a seachange.

[bullmoose88]

and as I say that...Fitz's lead in bucks expands

Representative in Congress 1  Vote for 1 View Results by District
Democrat
Patrick J. Murphy  114610  
 49.8%
Republican
Michael G. Fitzpatrick  115755  
 50.2%

but only 3 more precincts remaining but 2 of those seem democratic...

so unless montco tightens up...its done.

[bullmoose88]

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

[bullmoose88]

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

Show's not over, but it's not looking good for you guys.

PA-6 on the other hand, I'd hold out hope because Chester has yet to be counted.

Do you know if absentee ballots have been counted (shot in the dark here)..?

[bullmoose88]

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

Show's not over, but it's not looking good for you guys.

PA-6 on the other hand, I'd hold out hope because Chester has yet to be counted.

Do you know if absentee ballots have been counted (shot in the dark here)..?

For PA-6 or PA-8?  Go to CNN and look at county breakdown.  It does not look good fro Fitz.

PA-6 on the other hand there's still a lot in Chester County needing to be counted with Lois up 2.

What I was asking was...is that all ballots counted (yes 100% precincts...) or do absentee ballots get counted say...tomorrow?

I'm assuming its over...and I'm gonna have to live with Murphy...who knows, maybe I'll end up liking him...but if I don't...08 won't come soon enough.

[bullmoose88]

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

Show's not over, but it's not looking good for you guys.

PA-6 on the other hand, I'd hold out hope because Chester has yet to be counted.

Do you know if absentee ballots have been counted (shot in the dark here)..?

For PA-6 or PA-8?  Go to CNN and look at county breakdown.  It does not look good fro Fitz.

PA-6 on the other hand there's still a lot in Chester County needing to be counted with Lois up 2.

What I was asking was...is that all ballots counted (yes 100% precincts...) or do absentee ballots get counted say...tomorrow?

I'm assuming its over...and I'm gonna have to live with Murphy...who knows, maybe I'll end up liking him...but if I don't...08 won't come soon enough.

Dude, it's looking like you have Pat Murphy as your Congressman.  I couldn't be any happier!

Except you don't live in my district. That said, I'm willing to give the guy a chance, but I'm leaning Republican for 08 here.

How'd the PA legislature go?

Lots of incumbents falling in the house...GOP looks to hold the Senate...This seems to be mainly due to the pay raise and some rendell/casey coattails.

The Democratic House whip lost his seat to a GOP borough mayor or someone.

CNN still has 13 undecided, though I'm not sure which ones the others are.

The very competitive WA-08 still has only 31% reporting.

The uncalled races:

CT-02 (100% in, D leads very narrowly)*
PA-08 (100% in, D leads)*
PA-06 (100% in, R leads)
OH-15 (100% in, R leads)
OH-02 (100% in, R leads)
NC-08 (100% in, R leads very narrowly)
GA-12 (96% in, D leads)
GA-08 (99% in, D leads)
LA-02 (100% in, going to D v D runoff)
TX-23 (94% in, likely going to R v D runoff)
NM-01 (99% in, R leads)
WY-AL (99% in, R leads very narrowly)
WA-08 (31% in, R leads)

*Dem pickup.

PA-08: Fitzpatrick has not conceeded. I'm wondering if he's waiting for absentee ballots, which may be enough to swing it his way...or a recount...which I think probably wouldn't help much.

[bullmoose88]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

[bullmoose88]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

I meant to ask you this:  So how did Gerlach survive in your opinion?  When the cycle began a couple of years, he was considered by most experts to be the Republican House incumbent most in danger of losing.  Now, he's one of the few that survived.  What's your explanation?

I don't live in PA-06 (I live in PA 08 obviously given my emotional attachment to its race)...

that said...I think as you've said before the problem in PA wasn't really anti-republican or anti-specific candidate reaction...rather it was an anti Bush reaction...Now a good deal of Gerlach's district sits in Chester County...which is the one Philadelphia collar county to stay Republican at the presidential level...so its got a republican tinge to it even when a conservative runs (I suspect that the philly burbs would likely lean in favor of a guliani/mccain type over anyone, and may be inplay regardless if the dem isn't a bill clinton type)....so he's got a natural advantage.


As I said before, while Weldon went down due to his own incompetence (the FBI investigation also took down some gop chairmen in delaware county)...the other Republican reps were pretty popular and did pretty well on local issues and representing their districts...Iraq sunk Fitzpatrick in a district that is slowly losing its Republican stranglehold...perhaps in a more republican district...Fitz, like Gerlach would have survived.

When the GOP drew this district up...it was designed to be pretty republican, as it has chester and I think some fairly republican parts of Montco (which I imagine they wanted back into district 13 to help the Melissa Browns of the world)...Perhaps the stronger republican nature of the district off set, just enough, the general anti bush mood going on...

Lois Murphy is a loser, she lost in 2004 (its not like she's some defeated incumbent, like a baron hill) coming back to win her seat...

So i'm thinking 2 major things...(Summary because I babble)

1) Gerlach underperformed previously (I can't quite remember how long he's been in the 6th) The 6th was designed in the GOP gerrymander to be pretty republican, unlike the 8th which took on more democratic wards to help the 13th elect a Republican and was thought to be fine because Jim Greenwood was and is a god. Those democratic wards seem to have helped Murphy big time.

2) Lois Murphy likely sucks as a candidate and previously benefited from a presidential election at the top of the ticket. While the dems did tremendously well at the top of the ticket this time, Lois Murphy was not a new exciting candidate.  Had this been her first time running, or had the dems nominated someone else...perhaps they could have capitalized on the anti-bush wave.


Feel free to ask questions if you're confused.