🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[jeron]

Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)
Last time a government was defeated this badly was 2002.

2017: PvdA -29 and VVD -8

[Logical]

Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)
Last time a government was defeated this badly was 2002.

2017: PvdA -29 and VVD -8

Oh right, I always forget badly PvdA was trounced then. They still haven't recovered.

[DavidB.]

Wow. According to electoral geographer Josse de Voogd, the biggest relative gains for GL/PvdA are in Bloemendaal and the biggest losses in Pekela. It is the entire story of the left's losses over the last decade and a prime example of #muhtrends. Bloemendaal is one of the richest municipalities in the country and Pekela one of the poorest, and both are known archetypes in their categories.

Also worth noting how GL/PvdA flopped completely in Timmermans' own Southern Limburg, where he got massive numbers in the 2019 EP election (although on very low turnout at the time; the idea of PVV voters suddenly opting for Timmermans in droves was probably always a myth). Wilders is actually from Northern Limburg (Venlo, which he won with 36.3%) but received very good numbers in the South - and astronomic ones in the post-industrial Southeast - too.

NOS now also has maps for results per party, gains and losses per party, turnout, turnout change, and second biggest party - change "toon op de kaart" or "bekijk uitslagen per partij" or both.

[Zinneke]

This is the second election in a row in which the combined score of the left parties was under a quarter of the vote. There was also no obvious sign of a serious recovery in those places where the collapse over the past decade has been particularly severe. This should prompt serious reflection at the very least (and as to that matter, well, my general views would not be a secret), but I suspect that it won't.

The issue is immigration, and your general views are a secret, just like many quiet center-left voters you refuse to engage in the subject altogether. In many ways I respect more the people like Volt who at least talk of pragmatic solutions like the need for equal redistribution of migrants across EU. The 4-sided villa lefties simply don't understand the strain of immigration on urban society.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

SGP: more difficult to work with D66 than with PVV
The SGP thinks that it is now first up to the major parties to see whether they can form a cabinet together and that the PVV should take the lead. SGP leader Stoffer said that he does not rule out any party from working with in a coalition. He sees a much greater barrier for the SGP to collaborate with D66 than with the PVV.

Stoffer is "grateful" for the three seats that the SGP will obtain in the forecast (as many as the current number of seats): "We have a loyal support base and they have appreciated our clear Christian sound and the sound for ordinary people in the Netherlands."

Lol

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Van der Plas is interested in a coalition with the PVV
BBB leader Caroline van der Plas would like to be in a coalition with the VVD, NSC and PVV, "provided Geert moves along a bit". She said this at a party meeting in Deventer.

According to Van der Plas, PVV leader Geert Wilders has promised that he would become more lenient. "It is important whether he will really do that." She points to, among other things, plans to ban the Koran and a nexit, PVV plans that, as far as the BBB is concerned, are "impossible and unfeasible".

For the rest, Van der Plas says she is not worried about the formation. "NSC, VVD and BBB are not that far apart," said the BBB leader.

Although the BBB is not numerically necessary for a majority in the House of Representatives - PVV, VVD and NSC together have sufficient seats - the party leader thinks that they will still be contacted, because the BBB has many seats in the Senate. "All the balls are in Geert's hands."

I wonder whether "all the balls are in Geert's hands" is correct english lol.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Turkish media: enemy of Islam
Media in Turkey write that the Netherlands voted for "an enemy of Islam" who has frequently spoken disparagingly about Turkey and the Turks. Various media refer to a speech by Wilders in which he states that "those who vote for Erdogan should go back to their country".

A news site also shows a video in which Wilders once briefly addressed the Turks in English: "I have a message for the Turks, you are not Europeans and you never will be."

The PVV's election win has also not gone unnoticed by media from Morocco. The French-Moroccan news site le360.ma quotes Wilders' less-less statement from 2014. And the Moroccan news site Médias24 writes that although Wilders is conciliatory, he is still anti-Moroccan.

The site refers to the PVV party programme, which is against Islamic schools, the Koran and mosques, among other things.

Yeah, Netherlands will be an enemy of Turkey now.

[Oryxslayer]

I have already said a lot depends on Omtzigt and what he wants, but really a lot also depends on the VVD.  Omtzigt may in theory think the GL/PvdA-VVD-NSC without official others is the better option,  cause it would be a confidence arrangement and theoretically give more power to the parliament like he wants,  but that's just him. If the VVD is PVV only, then that option vanishes.  And at least at this point, he would follow them to avoid a repetition.

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like the western world is crumbling under poison of right-wing populism. That said, PVV got 23% of the vote. That's not really a mandate or landslide.

[warandwar]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

Is it? Some Dutch far right parties and the SP are not far off Juche Thought or National Bolshevism.

Can you elaborate on what you think dutch juche is?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I feel like the western world is crumbling under poison of right-wing populism. That said, PVV got 23% of the vote. That's not really a mandate or landslide.

It's because people are sick of the liberal ideology that only serves the elites.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

Also if the only thing you care about after a PVV victory is Ukraine...

[DavidB.]

Our Ukraine policy will be fine. VVD, NSC and BBB will never allow for a significant change of course there. Foreign policy is about the last thing the PVV will touch, except for Israel and our UN vote there perhaps. Former Dutch ambassador Caspar Veldkamp (NSC) would be the most likely Minister of Foreign Affairs and his foreign policy would be perfectly in line with our European partners - perhaps a little more with the Germans, the Austrians and the Czechs and a little less with the remainder of the Benelux and France, but nothing spectacular. And let's not act as if Wilders is Forum-tier in the first place. He has repeatedly condemned the Russian invasion, calls Russia the aggressor and says he hopes Ukraine will cut the Russian forces into pieces.

The truly interesting question regarding foreign policy would pertain to the Dutch position on the EU Council, but that's not just because of the PVV: NSC and BBB are also significantly more skeptical than the previous government, which was very pro-'ever closer union' by Dutch standards.

[Comrade Funk]

I feel like the western world is crumbling under poison of right-wing populism. That said, PVV got 23% of the vote. That's not really a mandate or landslide.

It's because people are sick of the liberal ideology that only serves the elites.

The far-left is collapsing too

[jeron]

I have already said a lot depends on Omtzigt and what he wants, but really a lot also depends on the VVD.  Omtzigt may in theory think the GL/PvdA-VVD-NSC without official others is the better option,  cause it would be a confidence arrangement and theoretically give more power to the parliament like he wants,  but that's just him. If the VVD is PVV only, then that option vanishes.  And at least at this point, he would follow them to avoid a repetition.

Well, VVD is not clear about what it wants. After a VVD meeting of almost 3 hours all Yesilgoz ssid was " vvd isnot in the lead" and "the initiative lies with PVV and NSC"

[Sir Mohamed]

I feel like the western world is crumbling under poison of right-wing populism. That said, PVV got 23% of the vote. That's not really a mandate or landslide.

It's because people are sick of the liberal ideology that only serves the elites.

If that was true, the left-wing parties would have gained more votes. The Dutch voted for a right-wing govt. It's also hilarious to assume Wilders wouldn't serve anybody but himself.

[jeron]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

16% straight from the socialist party to PVV

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Another change last minute

PVV projected at 38 seats (1 up compared to a few hours ago)

GL/PvdA down to 24.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PVV took 33% in Oldambt, parts of which were a CPN stronghold back in the old days.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The latest projections have the right-wing dream coalition (PVV+VVD+BBB+SGP+JA21) at a combined 72 seats, up from 70 at the initial exit polls, but still 4 short of a majority. I do not see them closing that gap.

Indeed. In this absolutely terrible scenario, there is a legitimate concern of the Netherlands being more Russophilic. Whatever they do with migrants is up to them sadly, but my hope is that these communist-right parties don’t actively sabotage Dutch support for NATO and Ukraine.

What the **** is wrong with you.

You should know better than write such a low tier post.

Not a single self-describing communist has voted for Wilders.

16% straight from the socialist party to PVV

SP isn't communist. I would've not voted for them.

Besides PVV has quite a left-wing platform on economical issues, like for instance on healthcare. At least more so than VVD.

The average voter from a left wing party is to the right of the party establishment on immigration. That's common knowledge. And strategic voting took place from minor parties to major parties.

[DavidB.]

I still suspect Kauthar Bouchallikht will split off from GL-PvdA (she said she would not take up the seat but I doubt it), so if VVD and GL-PvdA both get 24 then the VVD are likely to have a bigger parliamentary group than GL-PvdA, who would then have 23. Bouchallikht could become the new head of BIJ1 or join DENK if she wants to let go of her intersectional pretenses.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

PVV took 33% in Oldambt, parts of which were a CPN stronghold back in the old days.

Netherlands doesn't have a relevant communist party in 30 years.

I don't know why so many people start bringing narratives of "communists" going to PVV. Communism is a dead ideology, esp. in the Netherlands.

The far-right just had a landslide victory, and people in this thread start hyperfocusing on "obscure communists that vote PVV" and "right-communism".

Y'all don't even live in the Netherlands or understand the language, yet you think you know it better... to write your own narrative.

One more time, and i'll just post in this thread in dutch.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Niemand in de Nederlandse media heeft het woord "communisme" gebruikt, dus geen idee waar jullie daar allemaal mee plots vandaan komen. Maar gezien jullie het toch beter weten, gaan we gewoon door in het Nederlands. Wil je weten wat ik zeg, doe dan gewoon de moeite om de taal te leren. Het is niet te veel gevraagd. Het is blijkbaar wat de Nederlander ook verwacht van de immigranten gezien hun keuze. Als je toch zo buitengewoon veel interesse hebt in nederlandse politiek, om plots te beginnen over "rechtse communisten", een term die ik letterlijk nog nooit ergens ben tegengekomen voor het lezen van deze thread, dan denk ik dat je ook wel de taal moet kunnen spreken.

Alsook, DavidB. de titel van de thread moet veranderd worden naar Nov 23. We zijn al een jaartje verder. Ja, het gaat rap, ik weet het.

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag just polled coalition preferences.

60% of all voters find PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB acceptable, only 32% don't. 84% of VVD voters, 81% of NSC voters and 97% of PVV voters find this acceptable.

The option without BBB - which also has a majority - is supported by 57% of all voters, 84% of VVD voters, 77% of NSC voters and 90% of PVV voters.

66% of all voters find GL-PvdA-VVD-NSC-D66 unacceptable. This is the only remotely logical option that excludes the PVV. 79% of VVD voters and 78% of PVV voters find it unacceptable.

Quite unbelievable numbers but something shifted and we saw it last night. With these numbers, this could be quite easy. Time for VVD and NSC to make the turn.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yes I think Wilders should be PM now. The dutch people have voted. There is no stopping it. It would be foolish and only backfire. He won the election. He should head the government now.

If he messes up, the votes will be going back. If he doesn't, well good for the Dutch than, i suppose.