PA-PPP: Obama Romney tied at 45%

[pbrower2a]

Florida                 28   5.01%    52.10%    47.09%   
Colorado                   9   4.67%    51.69%    47.02%   
Nevada                   5   2.59%    50.47%    47.88%
US total              270+   2.46%       50.73%    48.27%
Ohio                         18   2.11%    50.81%    48.71%   
New Mexico           5   0.79%    49.84%    49.05%   
Iowa                   6   0.67%    49.90%    49.23%   
Wisconsin                 10   0.38%    49.32%    49.70%   
New Hampshire   4   1.37%    48.87%    50.24%   
Pennsylvania         20   2.50%    48.42%    50.92%       
Michigan                 16   3.42%    47.81%    51.23%   
Minnesota         10   3.48%    47.61%    51.09%   
Oregon               7   4.16%    47.19%    51.35%   

These were the legitimate swing states of the 2004 Presidential election (margins less than 6%). 

The key:

States that John Kerry won by more than the usual 4% margin of error (and had to win to be elected)
States that John Kerry won by less than the usual 4% margin of error (and had to win to be elected)
States that Dubya won but did not need to win but Kerry had to win to have a reasonable chance of victory
Victory line (both would have won with this state and lost without it)
States that Dubya won by less than the usual 4% margin of error (and had to win to be elected)*
States that Dubya won by more than the usual 4% margin of error (and had to win to be elected)

*Kerry could have won the 2004 election by a uniform shift of 1.12% and 1.23% by winning Ohio but still not winning the popular vote.

The states will not quite line up that way even in sequence in 2012 even if the 2004 and 2008 elections are variations on a theme of 2000. 

To be sure, President Obama looks to have an easy re-election (for now) against anyone but Mitt Romney.  No other Republican projects to any of the swing states of 2008 -- or Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, or Virginia. It's easy to figure that President Obama wins at lest 370 electoral votes against anyone but Romney. 

Romney projects to be way ahead of President Obama in New Hampshire and tied in Nevada and Pennsylvania.

If President Obama loses Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada from among these swing states but no others, then he wins, if barely. If he also loses either Ohio or Pennsylvania, then he has to win something outside this group. At this moment Arizona looks most promising. But that seems unlikely if President Obama loses Nevada.  Arizona is becoming a disaster for the GOP (check the most recent PPP poll for the Republican Governor and  the two Republican Senators from the state).