PA-PPP: Obama Romney tied at 45%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a mild outlier, 46% of PA voters are not conservatives

Uh, its the same as the last couple PA polls. Toomey/Sestak is probably Romney's ceiling in most counties.

There was a slight homefield advantage for Sestak in Delco that Romney could erase. He might also perform a few points beyond even that threshold, and in Montco. But I doubt he would win either. He might outperform Toomey enough in the SE to counteract the likely increased Democratic turnout. The trick is to, like Toomey, win the blue collar voters in the Lehigh valley and SW PA simultaneously. Doing this Reagan style balancing act between rich and working class conservatives is the key to winning Pennsylvania, and Michigan for that matter.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The trick is to, like Toomey, win the blue collar voters in the Lehigh valley and SW PA simultaneously. Doing this Reagan style balancing act between rich and working class conservatives is the key to winning Pennsylvania, and Michigan for that matter.

Bingo. The Toomey strategy is the best plan for victory here.

The way you cut that post is somewhat misleading. What I meant was with the Lehigh Valley and SW PA while simulaneously matching or exceeding (preferably exceeding by a handfull of points atleast considering Philly will have higher turnout along with Scranton and Pittsburgh) Toomey in the SE. While you undoubtedly understand this, others many not.