March 2021-- Which is Most Likely?

[John Dule]

^

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I feel confident in saying Trump will run for the GOP nomination and win.
At this point I'll put the odds at 60% he loses, 40% he wins. We've underestimated Trump twice before, he's not likely to win but he has a real shot.

[DaleCooper]

For now I'm still going to stick with my prediction that Trump won't end up running for a variety of reasons and that his endorsement, if he makes one, won't mean as much as people expect it to. I'm not saying this is a greater than 50% chance as opposed to your other options, but I believe it's a plurality as far as its likelihood goes.

I also feel like people are forgetting how quick things move in both the news and public opinion. Retiring for three years in the aftermath of defeat and then coming back at age 78 to run again is not as easy as people seem to think, no matter how intense his following is now. I've seen plenty of celebrities and powerful people implode in much shorter time, and there have been many more that have left the public eye before trying to make comebacks and failing. We'll just have to wait and see, but politics these days is too volatile for anyone to pretend that there's a 90% chance or more that Trump will be the GOP nominee this far out.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Trump will win the presidency in 2024.

[MarkD]

I vote for Option 1. I think Trump will lose enthusiasm for running again due to a lack of election reforms in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He thinks the Democrats in those states stole election 2020 from him, and unless election reforms in those states get adopted by 2024, the states will be stolen from him again, preventing him from legitimately winning. Why would he run again if he thinks the system is still rigged against him?

[beesley]

I think the two likeliest options are the ones at extreme ends; either 'Trump hints about running in 2024, but fades away due to loss of enthusiasm/legal troubles' or either scenario in which Trump wins the nomination.

[Sir Mohamed]

#1. Trump floats running, but never actually declares his candidacy because he's under massive legal scrutiny and him losing his major communication platform makes messaging pretty difficult. But he will still be an influential voice in the candidate selection and his endorsement will matter significantly.

We also need to remember how old Trump is and that he's not known for having a healthy lifestyle. He may not be able to run an energetic campaign as he did in 2016.

[Del Tachi]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

[Chips]

#7 seems most likely to me.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

[Del Tachi]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

DeSantis and Haley are moderates in a GOP primary, just like Trump was

And "Twitter" is just a stand-in for whatever social media platform Trump is on in 2024.  Although, I think it's likely his ban could be lifted prior to 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

DeSantis and Haley are moderates in a GOP primary, just like Trump was

And "Twitter" is just a stand-in for whatever social media platform Trump is on in 2024.  Although, I think it's likely his ban could be lifted prior to 2024.

How are DeSantis and Haley moderates? Latter may be nicer in tone, but they all have embraced Trump and the Tea Party's right wing agenda. By no means are they moderate. Even Kasich is conservative on a lot of issues, though calling him a moderate would be much more accurate than the 2 named above.

[beesley]

How are DeSantis and Haley moderates? Latter may be nicer in tone, but they all have embraced Trump and the Tea Party's right wing agenda. By no means are they moderate. Even Kasich is conservative on a lot of issues, though calling him a moderate would be much more accurate than the 2 named above.

In the same way that Ted Cruz tried to paint Trump as 'moderate' (or whatever more derogatory term he used). DeSantis becomes more of a moderate because there is no way Kasich or anyone remotely from that vein would win a Republican Presidential primary.

[Del Tachi]

Trump hints about running through all of 2023 and into 2024.  As is typical, a social conservative (Cruz?) wins over a splintered field in Iowa.  NH becomes a showdown between two moderates (Haley and DeSantis) vs the insurgent IA winner.  RDS narrowly ekes it out in NH, gets Trump's Twitter endorsement that next week, and then steamrolls SC and Super Tuesday.       

DeSantis and Haley are not moderates, lol. And how does Trump endorse via Twitter? His ban won't be reversed.

DeSantis and Haley are moderates in a GOP primary, just like Trump was

And "Twitter" is just a stand-in for whatever social media platform Trump is on in 2024.  Although, I think it's likely his ban could be lifted prior to 2024.

How are DeSantis and Haley moderates? Latter may be nicer in tone, but they all have embraced Trump and the Tea Party's right wing agenda. By no means are they moderate. Even Kasich is conservative on a lot of issues, though calling him a moderate would be much more accurate than the 2 named above.

Moderate =/= sounding nice.

If you look at polling from the 2016 primaries, Trump won the "moderate" lane in the GOP primary just like Romney and McCain did before him.  In 2000, Bush put McCain to sleep in South Carolina by winning working-class, rural moderates; not suburban conservatives (which is the same coalition Trump won with in 2016.) 

What liberal pundits don't understand is that the Republican base, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, is just way too heterodox to ever nominate a TrueConservative^TM.  2016 was a resounding rejection of the Tea Party by Republican partisans.  

[TomC]

He will absolutely run and collect donations. I don’t know beyond that.

[pbrower2a]

If he is still alive and not in prison or having fled to another country, he still has a lock on the GOP nomination if he runs. The personality cult is intact, but even without him the contest within the GOP for President would be to find Trump's "finest student". Bob Dole without the character and rationality?

Either way, the GOP loses the 2024 election for President. Demographics disfavor the GOP as its constituency shrinks as a share of the electorate by about 1.5% each year for the next ten years. 

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of him fading away but I doubt by then he'll actually still want to go through the same process only to very possibly lose again. The possibility of him dying or being in jail by 2024 is WAY overblown by wishful leftist hacks and isn't likely, so even if the nominee isn't him he'll likely be a critical part of the Republican's outreach and voter turnout operations.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of him fading away but I doubt by then he'll actually still want to go through the same process only to very possibly lose again. The possibility of him dying or being in jail by 2024 is WAY overblown by wishful leftist hacks and isn't likely, so even if the nominee isn't him he'll likely be a critical part of the Republican's outreach and voter turnout operations.

Remember when claiming that he'd try to stay in power illegally was considered something made-up by "leftists hacks".

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of him fading away but I doubt by then he'll actually still want to go through the same process only to very possibly lose again. The possibility of him dying or being in jail by 2024 is WAY overblown by wishful leftist hacks and isn't likely, so even if the nominee isn't him he'll likely be a critical part of the Republican's outreach and voter turnout operations.

Remember when claiming that he'd try to stay in power illegally was considered something made-up by "leftists hacks".

Did he? He left on January 20th right? If you're referring to the riot on the Capitol, I think you're giving way too much credit to the idiot diehards who weren't serious at all about any kind of "insurrection" (if they were, there would've been an actual plan in place and not mass chaos). I was well aware of the possibility that Trump would throw a tantrum over the results and not accept it. The consequences bear themselves out on Jan 6.

Depends, does he throw a tantrum over mail-in voting? Does he go on Twitter rants in December still bitter about the results? He'll go out in the '30s most likely if that happens but remain in mid-'40s if he concedes properly.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of him fading away but I doubt by then he'll actually still want to go through the same process only to very possibly lose again. The possibility of him dying or being in jail by 2024 is WAY overblown by wishful leftist hacks and isn't likely, so even if the nominee isn't him he'll likely be a critical part of the Republican's outreach and voter turnout operations.

Remember when claiming that he'd try to stay in power illegally was considered something made-up by "leftists hacks".

Did he? He left on January 20th right? If you're referring to the riot on the Capitol, I think you're giving way too much credit to the idiot diehards who weren't serious at all about any kind of "insurrection" (if they were, there would've been an actual plan in place and not mass chaos). I was well aware of the possibility that Trump would throw a tantrum over the results and not accept it. The consequences bear themselves out on Jan 6.

Depends, does he throw a tantrum over mail-in voting? Does he go on Twitter rants in December still bitter about the results? He'll go out in the '30s most likely if that happens but remain in mid-'40s if he concedes properly.

Yeah it's not like the vast majority of congressional republican voted to throw out enough electoral votes to declare Trump the victor nor did he file over 60 lawsuits trying to remain in office.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't necessarily accept the premise of him fading away but I doubt by then he'll actually still want to go through the same process only to very possibly lose again. The possibility of him dying or being in jail by 2024 is WAY overblown by wishful leftist hacks and isn't likely, so even if the nominee isn't him he'll likely be a critical part of the Republican's outreach and voter turnout operations.

Remember when claiming that he'd try to stay in power illegally was considered something made-up by "leftists hacks".

Did he? He left on January 20th right? If you're referring to the riot on the Capitol, I think you're giving way too much credit to the idiot diehards who weren't serious at all about any kind of "insurrection" (if they were, there would've been an actual plan in place and not mass chaos). I was well aware of the possibility that Trump would throw a tantrum over the results and not accept it. The consequences bear themselves out on Jan 6.

Depends, does he throw a tantrum over mail-in voting? Does he go on Twitter rants in December still bitter about the results? He'll go out in the '30s most likely if that happens but remain in mid-'40s if he concedes properly.

Yeah it's not like the vast majority of congressional republican voted to throw out enough electoral votes to declare Trump the victor nor did he file over 60 lawsuits trying to remain in office.

The lawsuits failed. The objections failed. Our system of checks and balances worked, and Trump is no longer president. Your original point still is unfounded. If your argument is that a candidate or congressional leaders even tried those things to stay/obtain power, then I think you should look at our history.

[Xing]

He would almost certainly win the nomination if it were today, but three years is an eternity for another candidate to get attention, and I think it's more likely than not that the 2024 nominee is not Trump.

[pbrower2a]

He would almost certainly win the nomination if it were today, but three years is an eternity for another candidate to get attention, and I think it's more likely than not that the 2024 nominee is not Trump.

That's mostly an actuarial question. Donald Trump is a vengeful man, and if he could take it out on people who thought him unfit to be President despite being the Most Wonderful Person Who Ever Lived, his character suggests that he would.

Three years is an eternity with someone at his age with such previously-existing conditions as obesity, bad eating habits, physical inactivity, and  an inflexible mind.

[dermont58]

#7 is inevitable

[Nyssus]

Despite how bellicose Trump's rhetoric may have been during his presidency, and may still be, as he demonstrated at CPAC, I find the notion of an official Trump 2024 campaign to be fairly unlikely, let alone a victory in the primary or even general election. However, it's true that he's been overestimated frequently, and it would be fairly foolish to discount such a possibility entirely.

Of course, we know that Trump's health is not nearly as great as it's been made out to be by his team of physicians, and the average 78-year-old is already in decline, both physically and mentally. That begs the question: will the former president even be in shape to run for president in 2024? Perhaps not. Four years is also a fairly long time in American politics, and he may not have the same allure as he had, even last year.

However, I suspect Trump will attempt to retain an active role in Republican Party politics. He's already displayed that, at least among Republicans in Congress, he retains very significant popularity, and despite his very polarizing presidency, there are only a handful of high-profile members of the GOP who are willing to publicly dissent, despite their views behind closed doors.