Arizona Democrats are not contesting the proper seats to win state house.
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  Arizona Democrats are not contesting the proper seats to win state house.
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Author Topic: Arizona Democrats are not contesting the proper seats to win state house.  (Read 360 times)
lfromnj
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« on: April 22, 2022, 11:52:36 AM »

https://elections-daily.com/2022/04/21/a-post-filing-update-on-arizonas-legislative-races/

Amazing.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2022, 11:58:09 AM »

I told you all AZ dems are incompetent
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xavier110
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2022, 11:59:03 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2022, 12:07:26 PM by xavier110 »

The article doesn’t really provide the needed context. Each district elects two reps. The Democratic Party here routinely fields only one candidate for swing districts to fracture the GOP/Indie vote as districts begin to trend D.

It’s been a proven method to get a foothold — a district will go 2 R, then 1 D 1 R, and then the state party will let two Ds run to capture both seats. Who knows if 2 Ds would have won in 1 D 1 R years, but they like to see some momentum first, and some indies like to split their votes in these races.

With redistricting, it looks like they went back to hedging their bets in the new competitive districts, like LD 2, 4, etc. I’m in one of them and will be voting for 1 D and not two candidates like I’m allowed to.

Regardless, the Ds were not winning the legislature here this year.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2022, 03:55:57 PM »

The article doesn’t really provide the needed context. Each district elects two reps. The Democratic Party here routinely fields only one candidate for swing districts to fracture the GOP/Indie vote as districts begin to trend D.

It’s been a proven method to get a foothold — a district will go 2 R, then 1 D 1 R, and then the state party will let two Ds run to capture both seats. Who knows if 2 Ds would have won in 1 D 1 R years, but they like to see some momentum first, and some indies like to split their votes in these races.

With redistricting, it looks like they went back to hedging their bets in the new competitive districts, like LD 2, 4, etc. I’m in one of them and will be voting for 1 D and not two candidates like I’m allowed to.

Regardless, the Ds were not winning the legislature here this year.

Interesting, and this provides needed context. Thank you for explaining.

Yeah, it's probably nice that someone who lives in AZ and actually understands the complexities of that state's politics comments before the rest of us rush to criticize the AZ Democrats (who are, by the way, very competant - they have a 5-4 majority in the House delegation and both senate seats, in a Biden+0.4 state).

On the other hand, though, I do wonder - they didn't even field 30 candidates, apparently? That doesn't feel like a winning strategy considering they currently hold 29 seats. Still, not like the AZ House is flipping this year anyway. Better to focus on the national Senate race and try to win the House in 2024.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2022, 08:34:05 PM »

This is a recruiting failure on Dems part, but theoretically they can win the state House still, it's just they can't win with soley Biden seats alone and would have to win in at least a Trump + 4 seat.

Each seat can elects 2 state reps. Dems are only running 1 canidate in a Trump + 2 a Biden + 1 seat, and a Biden + 3 seat. That means that at most all Biden seats can get them to 28 seats plus the narrow Trump seat to 29. 30 is needed for a majority (Biden won 15 seats).

Their next most likely seats would be 2 Trump + 4 seats in HD-16 and HD-17, both of which are Tucson suburbs mixed with rurals.

So basically their chances of winning a majority went from little to very little.

Stupid on their part, but not a huge deal for 2022.
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