Will either Candidate get over 70 Million Votes
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2024, 02:41:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Will either Candidate get over 70 Million Votes
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Will either Candidate get over 70 Million Votes  (Read 718 times)
JFK-Democrat
Rookie
**
Posts: 193
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 01, 2012, 11:49:10 PM »

So Barack Obama got the most votes in History in 2008, will either candidate exceed this total in 2012?
Logged
Biden 2024
wolfentoad66
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 336
Norfolk Island


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2012, 11:52:29 PM »

So Barack Obama got the most votes in History in 2008, will either candidate exceed this total in 2012?

Very unlikely.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,613
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2012, 12:04:37 AM »

I'd give Obama about 30% chance of achieving that.

I'd give Romney about a 1% chance.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2012, 12:09:11 AM »

Plausible in a blow out... but highly unlikely.
Logged
Boris
boris78
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,098
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: -4.52

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2012, 12:17:50 AM »

Has any re-elected President (other than FDR in 1940 and '44) ever received less votes than they did the previous time? I think if the election were held today you'd see Obama win with ~68 million votes to ~62 million votes for Romney, with ~2,000,000 votes for third party candidates (so like 51.5% to 47%).
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2012, 12:44:07 AM »

2016, my friend, 2016.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2012, 01:01:33 AM »

Rubio/Martinez 2016
Logged
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,732
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2012, 01:25:35 AM »

Possible, but I think turnout will be shy of 140 million and Obama will either be just shy of a majority, or barely above it.
My guess is 68 mil for Obama, 65 mil for Romney and 4 mil for other candidates.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,830


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2012, 02:09:39 AM »

I'm thinking turnout will be lower. Obama doesn't break 70 million. Romney might not break 60 million.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,356
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2012, 03:25:55 AM »


Probably.  The voting population growth likely won't be favorable to a white man candidate.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2012, 03:47:32 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2012, 03:49:24 AM by Politico »

Not likely. I suspect Romney will get 60-69 and Obama will get 60-65.
Logged
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,209
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2012, 02:33:35 PM »

Not likely. I suspect Romney will get 60-69 and Obama will get 60-65.
Do you honestly believe that Governor Romney has a higher ceiling than President Obama?
Logged
Ty440
GoldenBoy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2012, 04:30:03 PM »

Not likely. I suspect Romney will get 60-69 and Obama will get 60-65.
Do you honestly believe that Governor Romney has a higher ceiling than President Obama?

Didn't he say Romney would get 70% of the white vote because of the Obama phone tape. That means Romney would need close to 3 out of 4 white men.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2012, 07:38:33 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2012, 07:42:08 AM by Politico »

Not likely. I suspect Romney will get 60-69 and Obama will get 60-65.
Do you honestly believe that Governor Romney has a higher ceiling than President Obama?

If Bush could go from 50,460,110 to 62,040,610, then I do not see why Romney cannot go from 59,950,323 (McCain 2008) to up to 67-69 mil given the environment of economic malaise and hyper-partisanship.

Obama has nowhere to go but down from 69,499,428. He may keep it at 65 mil, a decline of only 6% or so and only 4.5 mil, or he may fall into Kerry territory. Carter saw his support drop by 13% (from 40,831,881 to 35,480,115), so I suspect Obama will likely do better than that at least.
Logged
Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,862
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2012, 07:43:22 AM »

Not likely. I suspect Romney will get 60-69 and Obama will get 60-65.
Do you honestly believe that Governor Romney has a higher ceiling than President Obama?

Didn't he say Romney would get 70% of the white vote because of the Obama phone tape. That means Romney would need close to 3 out of 4 white men.

Please do not attribute the comments of others to me. The Obamaphone Lady is undeniably hurting Obama, but I am not going to speculate on the magnitude.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.229 seconds with 13 queries.